Prince Of ClovaHellionHashtag QueenEmerald TimeChico MagnificaDouble Tiger
Midfield · 4
CollanisiAsta La VistaBetteryouthanmeMillford Hill
Hold Up · 4
Prince PhilOur GuideKing EsotericFinbarr
Pioneer Pete will lead from the start with no serious pace pressure, creating a sustainable early gallop that should suit his proven front-running style. The real danger comes from prominent congestion with Double Tiger, Emerald Time, Chico Magnifica, Hashtag Queen, Prince Of Clova, Collanisi, Asta La Vista and Hellion all wanting positions just behind the leader, creating inevitable traffic problems approaching the final two hurdles when the pace quickens.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Pioneer Pete Wire-to-Wire
35% probability
If Pioneer Pete gets an uncontested lead and the prominent pack get tangled up
The leader builds a decisive advantage while the pack behind struggle for racing room, with hold-up horses too far back to recover. Pioneer Pete's proven front-running record (6 places from 7 runs on similar going) sees him home.
If the prominent runners go too fast chasing Pioneer Pete in the middle stages
The pace collapses in the final half-mile allowing the hold-up brigade to close strongly from the back. Our Guide or Finbarr time their run perfectly to collar the weakening leaders close home.
Our GuideFinbarrKing EsotericPrince Phil
C
Prominent Runners Dominate
25% probability
If the prominent pack sort themselves out without major interference
Double Tiger and Chico Magnifica get clear runs from their handy positions to challenge Pioneer Pete, with their higher ratings telling in a driving finish. The hold-up horses are left with too much to do despite clean passages.
Double TigerChico MagnificaHashtag QueenEmerald Time
D
Chaos Creates Outsider Win
10% probability
If multiple fallers or severe interference eliminates the main contenders
A horse like Collanisi or Asta La Vista who normally lacks the class gets a dream run through the carnage. The race becomes a lottery with form going out the window completely.
CollanisiAsta La VistaMillford HillHellion
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Severe traffic problems approaching the final two hurdles as 8 horses want prominent positions behind Pioneer Pete
WATCH
Millford Hill's stamina limitations could see him weaken dramatically in the final furlong despite being in contention
NOTE
Pioneer Pete's jumping under pressure if the prominent pack gets closer than expected in the home straight
WATCH
Our Guide and Finbarr need the pace to be strong enough to set up their hold-up style in a maiden hurdle
NOTE
Double Tiger's ability to get a clear run from his prominent position when the field bunches approaching two out
2:50 — Watch The Grand National On Racing TV Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
3m · Good · HCAP · 9 runners
Holeshot likeliest to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Holeshot
Prominent · 3
Giovanni ChangeThe Clonmel KidThe Great Escape
Midfield · 2
MixedwaveYoudecide
Hold Up · 3
IthakaSlaney OperaCardamon Hill
Holeshot stands out as the primary pace-setter with several prominent runners (Giovanni Change, Mixedwave, The Clonmel Kid, The Great Escape) likely to track closely behind. This creates a sustainable but competitive early gallop that will test stamina over 3 miles, with the quartet of hold-up horses (Cardamon Hill, Youdecide, Slaney Opera, Ithaka) relying on the pace to come back to them in the final mile.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Sustainable Pace Holds
35% probability
If Holeshot controls the tempo without being pressured early by the prominent pack
The leaders maintain their advantage as the hold-up horses struggle to make up ground on good going. Giovanni Change or Mixedwave benefit from tracking the pace-setter without having to lead.
Giovanni ChangeMixedwaveHoleshotThe Clonmel Kid
B
Early Pace Pressure
25% probability
If Giovanni Change, Mixedwave and The Great Escape all press Holeshot from the start
The early gallop becomes unsustainably fast, causing the front-runners to weaken dramatically in the final mile. Cardamon Hill and Ithaka capitalize with their proven hold-up style over the distance.
Cardamon HillIthakaYoudecideSlaney Opera
C
Mid-Race Collapse
25% probability
If the prominent runners bunch together and go too fast through the middle stages
The race fractures with several fallers or pulled-up horses as the pace takes its toll. Slaney Opera and Youdecide emerge from the chaos with their patient tactics paying dividends.
Slaney OperaYoudecideCardamon HillIthaka
D
Holeshot Wire-to-Wire
15% probability
If Holeshot gets an uncontested lead and the prominent runners fail to apply early pressure
The pace-setter maintains a controlled gallop throughout and has enough left to resist late challenges. The Great Escape provides the main threat from the chasing pack but falls just short.
HoleshotThe Great EscapeGiovanni ChangeThe Clonmel Kid
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Monitor if Giovanni Change, Mixedwave and The Great Escape all press Holeshot early, creating unsustainable fractions
WATCH
Watch Holeshot's jumping rhythm in first mile as any early mistakes could invite immediate pace pressure
NOTE
Observe Cardamon Hill's position turning for home as hold-up horses need significant ground to make up
WATCH
Check if any of the prominent runners drop out mid-race, fundamentally changing the pace dynamic
NOTE
Note Slaney Opera's progress from 2 miles out as strongest indicator of whether pace will collapse
3:20 — Albert Bartlett Triple Crown Series Handicap Hurdle Qualifier)
2m5½f · Good · HCAP · 18 runners
3 vying for the leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 3
King Of The RoadIonianJhentong Enki
Prominent · 7
No Ordinary JoeFreshers WeekDunkerqueDaylatedollarshortBras d'OrDirty DenAssertive Walk
Midfield · 3
Keno BlackCelestial ReignSpeakasyoufind
Hold Up · 5
Duel Au SoleilMiss CynthiaJust Call Me LucyMandarbForest Blaze
King Of The Road, Ionian, and Jhentong Enki will ensure a genuine gallop from the start, with all three natural front-runners likely to dispute the early lead. This strong pace will set up the race for closers like Duel Au Soleil and Miss Cynthia, while prominent racers must position wisely to avoid being caught between pace and stamina demands over this extended trip.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Pace Collapse Finish
35% probability
If the three front-runners go too fast early and tie each other up
The strong gallop will find out King Of The Road, Ionian and Jhentong Enki in the final half-mile. Hold-up horses Duel Au Soleil and Miss Cynthia can pick up the pieces with their finishing kicks.
Duel Au SoleilMiss CynthiaJust Call Me LucyMandarb
B
Prominent Tracker Wins
30% probability
If the pace is strong but sustainable, allowing tactical speed
Horses like Freshers Week and Dirty Den can track the leaders without being compromised. They'll have enough left to outstay the front-runners while holding off the back-markers.
Freshers WeekDirty DenDaylatedollarshortBras d'Or
C
Front Runner Survives
20% probability
If one of the leaders can break clear and avoid the pace battle
Jhentong Enki or King Of The Road could get first run on their rivals if they can secure an uncontested lead. The winner would need to find extra stamina reserves to hold off the closers.
Jhentong EnkiKing Of The RoadIonianDunkerque
D
Surprise Package
15% probability
If the pace is messy and the race falls apart tactically
Lower-rated horses with good recent form like Keno Black or improving types get into contention. Forest Blaze or Celestial Reign could benefit from a chaotic race shape.
Keno BlackForest BlazeCelestial ReignAssertive Walk
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
King Of The Road and Ionian could go too fast early if they clash for the lead, compromising both
WATCH
No Ordinary Joe has been fading in his finishes recently and may struggle over this extended trip
WATCH
Miss Cynthia needs the pace to be strong enough to set up her finishing kick from the rear
NOTE
Jhentong Enki's back-to-back wins have come over shorter trips so stamina is unproven here
NOTE
Freshers Week drops back to hurdles after a chase run and may need this outing fitness-wise
Parramount will likely dictate a steady tempo from the front with minimal early pressure from this small field. The three prominent racers (Koapey, Gaelic Rambler, Zero Tolerance) should settle just behind, while Singapore Trip drops out the back as the sole hold-up performer. This setup creates a sustainable pace that will favor horses who can quicken late rather than grind.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Parramount Leads Throughout
35% probability
If Parramount gets an uncontested lead and maintains rhythm over fences
The front runner builds a decisive advantage jumping cleanly, with the prominent trio unable to close the gap sufficiently. Parramount's tactical advantage proves decisive despite recent moderate form.
ParramountKoapeyGaelic RamblerZero Tolerance
B
Prominent Battle Develops
30% probability
If Koapey or Gaelic Rambler press Parramount early and create stronger pace
The increased tempo sets up a late finish where the best jumper and strongest stayer prevails from the prominent group. Koapey's superior recent form tells in a driving finish.
KoapeyGaelic RamblerZero ToleranceParramount
C
Hold-Up Triumph
25% probability
If the pace stays steady and Singapore Trip gets clear run from last
The moderate early gallop allows Singapore Trip to unleash a characteristic late surge, picking off tiring leaders. The patient tactics pay dividends as others fade after prominent racing.
Singapore TripZero ToleranceKoapeyParramount
D
Pace Collapse Scramble
10% probability
If jumping errors or falls disrupt the rhythm and create stop-start racing
The race becomes a test of recovery and adaptability rather than pure speed, favoring the most reliable jumpers. Gaelic Rambler's experience over longer trips proves valuable in the scramble.
Gaelic RamblerZero ToleranceSingapore TripKoapey
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch if Parramount gets severely pressured early as recent form suggests vulnerability under pressure
WATCH
Monitor Singapore Trip's position turning in as hold-up tactics require clear racing room
NOTE
Check how Koapey handles the step up in class given superior recent form pattern
WATCH
Observe jumping rhythm of Gaelic Rambler who needs clean round to utilize staying power
NOTE
Note if Zero Tolerance can find winning gear having placed consistently without victory
4:20 — Watch Racing TV In Stunning HD Handicap Hurdle
3m · Good · HCAP · 7 runners
Thank You Ma'am to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Thank You Ma'am
Prominent · 3
Jalisco StarEscapologistBallygeary
Midfield · 1
Kent De Thaix
Hold Up · 2
American MikeJupiter Des Mottes
Thank You Ma'am will take the field along from the front without pressure, setting a sustainable gallop that should hold up over this marathon trip. The three prominent runners (Escapologist, Jalisco Star, Ballygeary) will track behind while the hold-up quartet waits for their opportunity, creating a classic staying hurdle where the pace anchor gets first run but faces a wall of closers in the straight.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Front Runner Holds On
35% probability
If Thank You Ma'am gets an uncontested lead and maintains rhythm throughout
The mare dictates fractions and has enough left to repel late challenges on ground that suits. The hold-up horses find the sustained pace has stretched them beyond recovery range.
Thank You Ma'amEscapologistJalisco StarBallygeary
B
Prominent Tracker Strikes
30% probability
If the pace becomes truly searching in the middle stages
Escapologist or Jalisco Star (both in excellent current form) can quicken off the bridle when Thank You Ma'am weakens. The held-up horses still have too much ground to make up.
Jalisco StarEscapologistThank You Ma'AmAmerican Mike
C
Hold-Up Hero Charges
25% probability
If the early pace is genuine but not destructive, leaving energy for a finish
American Mike uses his class edge or Jupiter Des Mottes times his run perfectly from the rear. The strong pace sets up perfectly for their patient tactics.
American MikeJupiter Des MottesKent De ThaixEscapologist
D
Pace Collapses Completely
10% probability
If Thank You Ma'am goes too slow early and the race becomes a sprint
The entire field arrives together turning for home in a messy scramble. Form and class become secondary to position and luck in running.
BallygearyKent De ThaixAmerican MikeThank You Ma'am
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Thank You Ma'am building an unassailable lead if the prominent runners fail to track close enough
WATCH
American Mike struggling to get into contention if the pace becomes too steady early
NOTE
Escapologist and Jalisco Star jockeying for the ideal tracking position behind the leader
NOTE
Jupiter Des Mottes getting a clean run from the rear as the field can spread out over this trip
WATCH
Any of the hold-up horses being forced to race prominently against their preferred style
4:50 — Malton Marquees Handicap Hurdle
3m · Good · HCAP · 15 runners
Lead contested: Jonquilla v Steady The ShipHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 2
JonquillaSteady The Ship
Prominent · 3
JeteyeRebel IntentionsKing Casey
Midfield · 6
Ck O'MaraRapid MissionTwoplacesatonetimeGetaway GloryYummyMoveonbuy
Hold Up · 4
BodygrooveFarmer JimmyEire StreetWild Nephin
Jonquilla and Steady The Ship will contest the early lead, with Jeteye, Rebel Intentions and King Casey likely to track them prominently. This creates a solid gallop that should suit the many hold-up horses, though the pace may not be breakneck given only two confirmed front-runners in a 15-runner field.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Pace Collapse Finish
35% probability
If the two leaders go too hard early and fade
The prominent trackers get first run but tire, leaving the patient hold-up horses to sweep past in the final furlong with stamina telling over 3 miles.
Eire StreetBodygrooveFarmer JimmyWild Nephin
B
Sustained Pace Grind
30% probability
If Jonquilla and Steady The Ship maintain steady fractions without killing each other
The race becomes a test of stamina with the better-class horses coming through, favoring those with proven form at the trip and ratings advantage.
JonquillaJeteyeBodygrooveWild Nephin
C
Front Runner Dominates
20% probability
If one of the leaders gets loose and dictates from the front
Either Jonquilla or Steady The Ship gets an uncontested lead and proves hard to peg back, with their superior jumping and tactical position proving decisive.
Steady The ShipJonquillaJeteyeRebel Intentions
D
Prominent Tracker Pounce
15% probability
If the pace is modest and the prominent horses get first run
The horses sitting just behind the leaders - Jeteye, Rebel Intentions, and King Casey - capitalize on their position to strike before the hold-up brigade gets organized.
JeteyeRebel IntentionsKing CaseyGetaway Glory
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Jonquilla and Steady The Ship setting unsustainable fractions in the first mile could set up a pace collapse
WATCH
Jeteye's jumping under pressure as his excellent going record means nothing if mistakes cost momentum
NOTE
How quickly the hold-up horses can organize as many need the two leaders to soften each other up
WATCH
Ck O'Mara handling the step up in trip after winning over shorter having never raced beyond 2m4f
NOTE
Weather conditions on the day as the going report will be crucial for assessing each horse's chances
5:22 — Thank You All Wetherby Groundstaff #groundsweek Open National Hunt Flat Race (GBB Race)
2m · Good · CLS5 · 6 runners
Noble Way likeliest to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Noble Way
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 4
Matador St GeorgesCape WarriorA Sight To SeaCricket Hill Denis
Hold Up · 1
Middlecliffe
Noble Way will likely lead from the start with no other confirmed front runners in this small field, setting a controlled gallop over the two miles. The lack of pace pressure should create a tactical affair where hold-up horses like Middlecliffe need the leaders to come back to them, but the sustainable tempo may favor those who can stay closer to the pace.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Noble Way Wire-to-Wire
35% probability
If Noble Way gets an uncontested lead and maintains rhythm
The leader controls from flagfall and has enough left to resist late challenges on the good ground. Middlecliffe runs on but cannot quite get there despite superior rating.
Noble WayCape WarriorMiddlecliffeA Sight To Sea
B
Middlecliffe Late Surge
30% probability
If the pace becomes too slow and leaders tire
The controlled early gallop sets up perfectly for Middlecliffe's hold-up style as the field bunches turning in. The superior-rated stayer powers through despite recent fading tendencies.
MiddlecliffeCricket Hill DenisNoble WayMatador St Georges
C
Newcomer Surprise
25% probability
If one of the lightly-raced horses shows significant improvement
A Sight To Sea or Cape Warrior produces a performance well above their limited exposed form. The tactical nature and good ground conditions suit a progressive type making their mark.
A Sight To SeaCape WarriorNoble WayMiddlecliffe
D
Pace Collapse Scramble
10% probability
If Noble Way goes too fast early or ties up dramatically
The leader either goes too hard or stops badly, creating a messy finish where positioning becomes crucial. Any horse in the right place at the right time can capitalize on the chaos.
Matador St GeorgesCricket Hill DenisCape WarriorA Sight To Sea
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Noble Way's early pace judgment will be crucial as uncontested leader could go too fast or too slow
WATCH
Middlecliffe's finishing kick timing is critical given recent tendency to weaken close to home
NOTE
The three completely lightly-raced horses A Sight To Sea, Cape Warrior and Matador St Georges could show significant improvement
WATCH
Cricket Hill Denis needs others to set up the race properly from his likely rear position
NOTE
Good ground conditions may favor the more experienced runners over newcomers still learning their trade
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
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