3:45 — Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction Maiden Hurdle (IRE Incentive Race)
2m4f · Good · MDN · 10 runners
The First Turn likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Dunleer Crystal led; the map had The First Turn in front.
Ifallgoeswell won at 3.25 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
The First Turn
Prominent · 2
Dunleer CrystalNameyourgame
Midfield · 4
Poet's DukeGreat EntirelyLoyal PraetorianMiss Donna
Hold Up · 3
IfallgoeswellAll Night RevivalDe Jour En Jour
The First Turn is the only confirmed front runner in this 10-horse field, likely to set an uncontested lead from The First Turn's preferred prominent position, with Dunleer Crystal and Poet's Duke tracking in second and third. The sustainable pace will allow hold-up horses like Ifallgoeswell, All Night Revival, De Jour En Jour and Loyal Praetorian to get into contention turning for home. With no pace pressure early and the 2m4f trip providing ample time for closers to mount their challenge, this race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can finish from off the pace.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horses Dominate
60% probability
If The First Turn sets uncontested fractions and the pace quickens only from the final hurdle
The sustained gallop allows stamina types to close strongly while early leaders tire in the final furlong. Hold-up runners benefit from the even pace distribution and can time their challenges perfectly.
IfallgoeswellAll Night RevivalDe Jour En JourLoyal Praetorian
B
Front Runner Holds On
25% probability
If The First Turn maintains tactical speed and the chasing pack fails to organize an effective pursuit
The lack of early pressure allows the leader to conserve energy for a determined finish while prominent racers struggle to close the gap. The uncontested lead becomes a winning advantage.
The First TurnDunleer CrystalPoet's DukeAll Night Revival
C
Prominent Racers Strike
10% probability
If Dunleer Crystal and Poet's Duke apply early pressure to The First Turn
The increased pace stretches the field but suits horses positioned just behind the speed who can inherit the lead turning for home. Elliott's tactical nous with Dunleer Crystal could prove decisive.
Dunleer CrystalPoet's DukeThe First TurnAll Night Revival
D
Pace Collapses Late
5% probability
If The First Turn stops quickly and the prominent group also fades
The race becomes a sprint finish between the backmarkers who have been patiently ridden throughout. The slowest early pace favours those with the most finishing kick.
De Jour En JourMiss DonnaLoyal PraetorianIfallgoeswell
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
The First Turn could get an uncontested lead and prove hard to peg back if none of the prominent runners apply early pressure
WATCH
Ifallgoeswell ran just 5 days ago at Cork and quick turnaround could impact stamina reserves in the closing stages
NOTE
Great Entirely pulled up on sole previous start and represents complete unknown quantity making market moves significant
WATCH
Loyal Praetorian was pulled up last time and current fitness levels remain questionable after recent disappointments
NOTE
Jack Kennedy's booking of Dunleer Crystal for Gordon Elliott suggests stable confidence despite 62-day absence
4:20 — Wexfordwalkingtrails.ie (C & G) Maiden Hurdle
2m4f · Good · MDN · 17 runners
Green Angel to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
Le Moulin Rouge won at 2.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Tinto De VeranoSilly MongooseRattledelatchLe Moulin RougeDavitts Quay
Green Angel is the confirmed front runner and will likely dictate from the start, with no obvious pace pressure from this field of predominantly hold-up horses. With 17 runners mostly rated to sit off the pace, Green Angel can bowl along at a comfortable gallop without early pressure, potentially setting up a tactical finish. The lack of prominent racers means the pace could become pedestrian in the middle stages before quickening late. This race shape strongly favours front runners and prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems behind, with hold-up horses facing a significant disadvantage in such a large field.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Front Runner Dominates
45% probability
If Green Angel gets an uncontested lead and the pace stays steady
Green Angel can dictate throughout and kick clear when the field bunches up behind, exploiting the lack of early pace pressure. The hold-up horses will struggle to make ground through traffic in the straight.
Green AngelCaptains SpeechLe Moulin RougeThe Rebel Fox
B
Prominent Tracking Success
30% probability
If Captains Speech and other prominent runners track Green Angel closely
The trackers can pounce when Green Angel tires, having avoided the traffic chaos further back while staying in touch. Form horses like Captains Speech are perfectly positioned to strike.
Captains SpeechLe Moulin RougeGreen AngelThe Rebel Fox
C
Late Closer Surge
15% probability
If the pace collapses completely and becomes crawling
Hold-up horses get their chance as the race becomes a sprint finish with less traffic issues. Le Moulin Rouge and other proven stayers can use their stamina to good effect.
Le Moulin RougeThe Rebel FoxCaptains SpeechGreen Angel
D
Pace Collapse Surprise
10% probability
If Green Angel fades early and no one takes up the running
The race becomes stop-start with no clear leader, creating chaos and opening the door for an outsider. Traffic problems multiply as horses bunch up with no clear pace anchor.
Sir Topham HattSeekthisfairlandGreen AngelCaptains Speech
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Green Angel must be watched for early pace - if he fails to lead or gets headed early, the entire race dynamic collapses
WATCH
Traffic problems in the straight will be severe with 17 runners - hold-up horses like Le Moulin Rouge and The Rebel Fox need clear runs
WATCH
Captains Speech is the form pick but needs to position prominently early to avoid the inevitable traffic chaos behind Green Angel
NOTE
Several reserves including Sir Topham Hatt and Tinto De Verano could cause tactical disruption if they gain entry late
NOTE
Multiple horses returning from long breaks including Le Moulin Rouge (103d) and Imarajan (398d) may need the run
4:55 — Visitwexford.ie Handicap Hurdle
2m4f · Good · HCAP · 17 runners
Lead contested: Ceroc v HitthehaysonHISTORIC
How it ran
Ceroc led, as the map showed.
Sean Mc won at 7.50 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
6 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
CerocHitthehayson
Prominent · 5
Noble TalentAccustomedBocelli's VoiceHumble BragGlendine Billy
Midfield · 5
Sean McGreat BirdAnnie's BelleStumblin InSpeakasyoufind
Hold Up · 5
Cowper HallMiss Mini BeeTakarengoTeenage KissErsudaly
Ceroc and Hitthehayson are the confirmed front runners who will contest the early pace in this competitive handicap hurdle. Both have leading tendencies and will likely set an honest gallop over the extended trip, with Noble Talent potentially tracking them prominently. The sustained pace over 2m4f on good ground will test stamina reserves in the closing stages, creating opportunities for those who can stay and finish. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can produce late kicks, as the early pace battle will set up the race for closers with tactical speed.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horse Swoops
55% probability
If the early pace is strong between Ceroc and Hitthehayson
The sustained gallop will drain the leaders' reserves, allowing patient hold-up performers to strike late with superior finishing kicks. Horses like Teenage Kiss, Sean Mc, and Great Bird are perfectly positioned to exploit this tactical setup.
Teenage KissSean McGreat BirdAnnie's Belle
B
Prominent Tracker Wins
25% probability
If Noble Talent or Accustomed can track the pace without overexerting
One of the prominent racers can get first run on the tiring leaders while holding off the late challengers. Their tactical position gives them the jump on both the faltering pace-setters and the hold-up horses still making ground.
Noble TalentAccustomedMiss Mini BeeBocelli's Voice
C
Front Runner Stays Strong
12% probability
If Hitthehayson's class tells and he can dominate throughout
The lower-weighted front runner can exploit his chase-winning form to wire the field, using his 5lb claim effectively. His back-to-back chase victories suggest the stamina to sustain pressure over this extended trip.
HitthehaysonCerocCowper HallHumble Brag
D
Surprise Closer Emerges
8% probability
If the pace collapses completely in the final furlong
An unfancied hold-up horse from the rear can time their run perfectly when the principals falter. This scenario suits the longest-priced closers who need maximum pace assistance to be competitive.
ErsudalyStumblin InGlendine BillySpeakasyoufind
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Ceroc and Hitthehayson must avoid getting into a speed duel that compromises both chances
WATCH
Teenage Kiss needs cover in the early stages to preserve his finishing kick for maximum impact
NOTE
Noble Talent's early position with Anna McGuinness will indicate if they're going for home or playing waiting game
WATCH
Jack Kennedy's tactics on Accustomed will reveal whether he rates the horse's chance highly
NOTE
Any market moves for Annie's Belle or Ersudaly on handicap debuts could signal stable confidence
5:28 — Irish Injured Jockeys Rated Novice Hurdle
3m · Good · NOV · 5 runners
Walks The Talk to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Rocky's Howya led; the map had Walks The Talk in front.
Agameoftwohalves won at 3.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Walks The Talk
Prominent · 2
Long BranchRocky's Howya
Midfield · 1
Agameoftwohalves
Hold Up · 1
Jisco Du Brem
Walks The Talk will take the field along as the sole confirmed front runner, setting a sustainable tempo without pressure in this small field. Long Branch, Agameoftwohalves, and Rocky's Howya will track in behind as prominent racers, with only Jisco Du Brem held up. The lack of pace pressure means the leaders can dictate terms and kick when they choose. This race shape strongly favours the front runner and prominent racers who can travel well and have something left for the finish.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Front Runner Dominates
45% probability
If Walks The Talk gets an easy lead and kicks clear from two out
The mare can use her tactical advantage to build an unassailable lead while the prominent racers are still getting organized behind her. Her solid form on good ground and sustainable pace style make her hard to peg back once in front.
Walks The TalkRocky's HowyaLong Branch
B
Prominent Battle
35% probability
If the three prominent racers (Long Branch, Agameoftwohalves, Rocky's Howya) close on Walks The Talk turning in
This becomes a stamina test between the main contenders where Rocky's Howya's four-timer and Long Branch's recent Thurles form could prove decisive. The sustained gallop will find out any stamina doubts over this extended trip.
Rocky's HowyaLong BranchWalks The TalkAgameoftwohalves
C
Elliott Magic
12% probability
If Agameoftwohalves shows improved stamina over this longer trip
Gordon Elliott's charge gets the step up in distance he may need and Jack Kennedy's tactical nous comes into play. The combination could time their run perfectly as the others tie up in front.
AgameoftwohalvesLong BranchRocky's Howya
D
Hold-Up Shock
8% probability
If Jisco Du Brem finds significant improvement off his low weight
Danny Mullins gets a dream setup with the pace up front and the 14lb weight advantage tells in the closing stages. The return to better ground suits this bumper winner who has been struggling over hurdles.
Jisco Du BremWalks The TalkLong Branch
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Rocky's Howya carries Michael Kenneally's 5lb claim but the 10-year-old's best recent form has come on much softer ground
WATCH
Agameoftwohalves steps up from 2m3f to 3m for the first time and could find this trip stretching his stamina
NOTE
Long Branch has shown his best form at Thurles and this represents a step up in class from his recent claiming success
NOTE
Walks The Talk returns after 55 days off which could blunt her finishing kick despite her tactical advantage
WATCH
Jisco Du Brem has the tongue-tie applied and gets first-time headgear, suggesting recent issues that need addressing
6:03 — Tomcoole Farm Novice Handicap Chase
2m3½f · Good · HCAP · 12 runners
Harty Cup to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Ho My Lord and Ballybrittas led; the map had Harty Cup in front.
James The Brave won at 3.25 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Harty Cup
Prominent · 5
The Great NudieMahon's WayCloonainraChoccablocBallybrittas
Midfield · 2
James The BraveTequila Talkin'
Hold Up · 4
Park Of KingsHo My LordThree In A RowDuffys Hodey
Harty Cup will lead unopposed from the start with no other confirmed front runners in this field. Five horses want prominent positions (Choccabloc, Cloonainra, Tequila Talkin', The Great Nudie, Mahon's Way) creating congestion behind the leader and potential traffic problems turning for home. The hold-up horses (Ho My Lord, Duffys Hodey, Park Of Kings, Three In A Row) will be dependent on the pace collapsing or finding racing room late. This honest gallop with prominent congestion clearly favours horses that can either lead from the front or sit prominently with room to manoeuvre.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Leader Gets Away
45% probability
If Harty Cup maintains a steady tempo without being pressured early
The young horse can dictate throughout and kick clear when the prominent group starts scrapping behind him. This scenario heavily favours the leader and any horse that can track him closely without getting caught in traffic.
Harty CupJames The BraveThe Great NudieCloonainra
B
Prominent Scrap
30% probability
If the five prominent runners engage in a pace battle behind Harty Cup
The congestion creates a stop-start rhythm that suits horses with tactical speed who can pick their way through or those held up with a clear run. Late runners get their chance as the pace collapses.
Three In A RowDuffys HodeyHo My LordTequila Talkin'
C
Early Leader Pressure
15% probability
If multiple prominent runners decide to challenge Harty Cup from early
The increased gallop stretches the field and creates a true test of stamina over this extended trip. Horses with proven staying power and class ratings get their opportunity.
The Great NudieMahon's WayCloonainraThree In A Row
D
Complete Collapse
10% probability
If the lack of early pace leads to a sprint finish from the last fence
The race becomes a pure test of speed rather than stamina with horses getting long runs from off the pace. Those with the highest recent speed figures and tactical pace benefit most.
James The BraveChoccablocPark Of KingsHo My Lord
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Harty Cup could get an uncontested lead if the prominent runners sit too far back early and dictate the race completely
WATCH
Traffic problems likely at the second last fence when Choccabloc, Cloonainra, The Great Nudie and Mahon's Way converge behind the leader
NOTE
Three In A Row needs the pace to collapse or clear running room given his hold-up style in a race lacking genuine early pace
WATCH
Choccabloc's recent pull-up record makes him unreliable despite prominent position likely suiting the race shape
NOTE
The Great Nudie returning after 50 days off with Kennedy taking the ride suggests connections expect improvement from last two disappointing efforts
6:38 — BOYLE Sports Supporting Irish Racing Veterans Handicap Chase
2m3½f · Good · HCAP · 17 runners
Supreme Jet to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Supreme Jet and Caesar Rock and Fakir d'Oudairies led, as the map showed.
Supreme Jet won at 5.00 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Supreme Jet
Prominent · 7
Fakir d'OudairiesBrideswell LadFlash De TouzaineFarmers LodgeKrabatGeneral ClermontDont Go Yet
Midfield · 4
Caesar RockUnion ParkBythesametokenDigby
Hold Up · 5
The Banger DoyleFighting FitWatch The WeatherThe Folkes TiaraA Wave Of The Sea
Supreme Jet will lead this field and set a sustainable pace without pressure, as he's the only confirmed front-runner in the 17-runner field. The real danger lies behind him where Fakir d'Oudairies, Flash De Touzaine, Dont Go Yet, Farmers Lodge, Krabat, Caesar Rock and Brideswell Lad all want prominent positions, creating significant traffic problems turning for home. With so many hold-up horses like Bythesametoken, The Folkes Tiara, Watch The Weather, A Wave Of The Sea, The Banger Doyle, Union Park, Fighting Fit and Digby needing room, the pace will compress dangerously 2-3 out. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can secure good positions early and avoid the inevitable scrimmaging behind.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Position Premium
55% probability
If the early prominent group secures clean jumping positions without interference
Supreme Jet's honest gallop sets up perfectly for the prominent runners who avoid traffic, with the hold-up brigade struggling to find gaps when it matters. The likes of Fakir d'Oudairies and Flash De Touzaine can utilize their class from forward positions.
Fakir d'OudairiesFlash De TouzaineDont Go YetKrabat
B
Hold-Up Horse Breakthrough
25% probability
If the pace collapses or the prominent group goes too hard early
Supreme Jet's pace proves too generous and the hold-up horses get the perfect setup, with Bythesametoken and The Folkes Tiara timing late runs to perfection. The De Bromhead and O'Sullivan expertise in handicaps pays dividends.
BythesametokenThe Folkes TiaraA Wave Of The SeaWatch The Weather
C
Traffic Carnage Scramble
12% probability
If multiple horses get hampered or brought down in the home straight melee
The congested field creates chaos turning for home with several fallers or badly hampered runners, allowing an outsider to inherit victory. One of the better-weighted runners like Dont Go Yet or Caesar Rock capitalizes on others' misfortune.
Dont Go YetCaesar RockGeneral ClermontFighting Fit
D
Front Runner Dominance
8% probability
If Supreme Jet gets an easy lead and the field fails to close him down
Supreme Jet utilizes his front-running style to maximum effect, dictating terms throughout and holding off all challengers in the straight. His recent consistent efforts in beginners' chases prove decisive against this handicap field.
Supreme JetFarmers LodgeKrabatBrideswell Lad
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Supreme Jet could steal this if the field allows him an uncontested lead and fails to organize a chase
WATCH
Watch for traffic problems turning for home with Fakir d'Oudairies, Krabat, Caesar Rock and Dont Go Yet all needing racing room
WATCH
Bythesametoken needs the pace to develop properly as hold-up horse but may struggle if it becomes stop-start affair
NOTE
Flash De Touzaine returning from long break but has strong course record - market support would be significant
NOTE
The Folkes Tiara represents powerful De Bromhead stable with Jack Kennedy taking the ride on another runner
7:08 — Racing Again 7th May Handicap Chase
2m3½f · Good · HCAP · 19 runners
Butty O Brien to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Oogum Boogum led; the map had Butty O Brien in front.
Butty O Brien won at 17.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
7 of 16 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Butty O Brien
Prominent · 5
Person Of InterestFinnians RowElusive PrinceOogum BoogumBaltinglass Hill
Midfield · 7
DriveonwillSpread The FaithConnemara ShorePatsy's PrideBarely Made ItRajjnatinEddies Pride
Hold Up · 6
Rockstown GirlNolans RoccoWarm In GoreyNorth Of NashvilleMalton GrooveMy Good Pal
Butty O Brien is the only confirmed front runner in this 19-runner handicap chase, giving him a soft lead without early pressure. The prominent runners like Finnians Row, Person Of Interest and Baltinglass Hill will track behind but won't challenge the pace early. With most of the field holding up including dangerous types like Rockstown Girl, Nolans Rocco and My Good Pal, this sets up as a waiting race where the tempo will be steady until the business end. This tactical setup strongly favours hold-up horses who can produce late kicks, as they'll get the perfect pace scenario to unleash finishing speed.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horses Dominate
65% probability
If the pace stays steady throughout with Butty O Brien unchallenged early
The patient riders get the perfect setup to wind up their mounts from the back, with plenty of horse left for the climb to the line. Late-running types with proven stamina will sweep past the early leaders.
Rockstown GirlMy Good PalNolans RoccoDriveonwill
B
Prominent Tracker Strikes
20% probability
If one of the prominent runners like Finnians Row decides to pressure Butty O Brien earlier than expected
This creates a more honest pace that suits horses who can travel strongly in the first half of the field without needing to come from too far back. The pure hold-up horses may find too much to do.
Finnians RowPerson Of InterestWarm In GoreyConnemara Shore
C
Front Runner Survives
10% probability
If Butty O Brien gets such an easy time that he can quicken off the front turning for home
The lack of early pace means he has enough left to resist the late challengers, especially if some hold-up horses get caught in traffic. His experience and tactical advantage proves decisive.
Butty O BrienBaltinglass HillFinnians RowMy Good Pal
D
Chaos Helps Outsider
5% probability
If the large field causes significant interference or several fancied horses make jumping errors
A horse that travels smoothly and jumps cleanly can benefit from others' misfortune, with the race falling apart in front of them. This suits honest types who may lack the class but have the stamina.
Malton GrooveNorth Of NashvilleOogum BoogumBarely Made It
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Butty O Brien must be allowed an uncontested lead early - if prominent runners pressure him the whole race dynamic changes
WATCH
Traffic problems likely with 19 runners turning for home - hold-up horses like Rockstown Girl and My Good Pal need clear runs
NOTE
Several horses carry headgear changes including Person Of Interest's new visor and Butty O Brien's first-time cheekpieces
WATCH
Multiple horses have completion issues including Warm In Gorey who has fallen/pulled up in last three starts
NOTE
Amateur riders on My Good Pal and several claiming jockeys take valuable weight off their mounts in this competitive handicap
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.