Mercury Mission and Did I Ask You That led; the map had Farfromnowhere in front.
Wild Bill Hickok won at 8.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up.
4 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Farfromnowhere
Prominent · 4
Karoline BanbouMister PinkMick CollinsKilgame
Midfield · 3
Did I Ask You ThatGlenashlingFaulty
Hold Up · 4
Wild Bill HickokJerrariFenian MaxiosMercury Mission
Farfromnowhere is the only confirmed front-runner in this field and should get an uncontested lead, setting a manageable gallop over this 2m trip. The bulk of the field - including Karoline Banbou, Kilgame, Mister Pink, and Glenashling - are prominent racers who will track close behind, while hold-up horses Mercury Mission, Wild Bill Hickok, Jerrari, and Fenian Maxios will need to come from off the pace. With no early pace pressure on Farfromnowhere and a large group of prominent types clustered behind, the race should develop into a tactical affair with a sprint finish from the last fence. This setup clearly favours the prominent racers who can position handily and have the tactical speed to strike when the race comes alive, rather than hold-up horses who may struggle to pick up the pieces if the pace is modest.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Brigade Strikes
60% probability
If the prominent racers can track Farfromnowhere at a comfortable gallop and produce their kicks from ideal positions
The tactical pace will suit horses like Karoline Banbou and Kilgame who can sit handy and quicken when the race develops. The hold-up horses will find themselves too far back when the sprint begins from the last fence.
Karoline BanbouKilgameGlenashlingMister Pink
B
Farfromnowhere Goes Clear
25% probability
If Farfromnowhere uses his front-running ability to steal a march and the chasers react too late
His stamina over longer trips suggests he can maintain a strong gallop, and if the prominent horses hesitate or get in each other's way, he could build an unassailable lead. The later kick merchants will have too much ground to make up.
If the early pace becomes truly crawling and it turns into a dash from the home turn
Mercury Mission or Jerrari could benefit from a truly-run finish where their finishing kick becomes the decisive weapon. However, they need the race to completely fall apart tactically to overcome their positioning disadvantage.
Mercury MissionJerrariKaroline BanbouWild Bill Hickok
D
Mullins One-Two Materializes
5% probability
If both Karoline Banbou and Did I Ask You That are primed for big runs despite their recent form
The stable's double-handed approach could see them work together tactically, with Harry Cobden and Paul Townend positioning perfectly. This requires both horses to be significantly better than their recent efforts suggest.
Karoline BanbouDid I Ask You ThatKilgameFarfromnowhere
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
WATCH
Mercury Mission could surprise at big odds if the pace collapses completely, but his 5lb claiming jockey may struggle with positioning
NOTE
Watch Farfromnowhere's jumping early - if fluent he could build unassailable lead given lack of pace pressure
KEY
Karoline Banbou and Did I Ask You That both represent Willie Mullins despite poor recent form - market support would be telling
WATCH
Wild Bill Hickok's Listed hurdle win in France shows ability exists, but his 7lb claimer faces major tactical test
NOTE
Track Kilgame's stamina over this 2m trip - shaped like he needs further when last seen at Leopardstown
5:35 — Visitwexford.ie Handicap Chase
2m · Good To Soft · HCAP · 13 runners
Soldante likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Tequila Talkin' led; the map had Soldante in front.
Butter Fingers won at 4.33 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Soldante
Prominent · 3
PahlaviShannon BankCourtbrack Boy
Midfield · 5
Butter FingersTequila Talkin'Let Him BErnie From NurneyL'Amiral Fromentin
Hold Up · 4
In The TrenchesHalf A ChancePresenting LadMidnight Moonshine
Soldante is the only confirmed front runner and will be allowed to dictate a sustainable tempo from the start without early pressure. Pahlavi, Shannon Bank and Courtbrack Boy can track prominently but none are natural pace-pressers over this trip. The lack of genuine speed will create a tactical affair with the main body of hold-up horses including In The Trenches, Half A Chance, Presenting Lad and Midnight Moonshine needing to time their moves perfectly from off the pace. This moderate early gallop and compressed field approaching the final fences strongly favours hold-up horses with finishing speed who can capitalize on the tactical nature.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Tactical Hold-Up Battle
45% probability
If Soldante sets uncontested fractions and the field bunches turning for home
The race becomes a sprint finish where horses with natural finishing pace thrive over those who need strong gallops. Hold-up performers like In The Trenches and Half A Chance get ideal conditions to unleash their kicks.
In The TrenchesHalf A ChancePresenting LadMidnight Moonshine
B
Prominent Tracking Success
30% probability
If Pahlavi or Courtbrack Boy track Soldante closely and kick clear approaching the last
The lack of early pace allows patient prominent runners to conserve energy before striking. These horses avoid the scrimmaging behind while staying close enough to pounce when it matters.
PahlaviCourtbrack BoyShannon BankTequila Talkin'
C
Soldante Wire-to-Wire
15% probability
If the front runner gets generous fractions and maintains momentum when challenged
The uncontested leader builds an unassailable advantage that hold-up horses cannot reel in despite their finishing efforts. Soldante's stamina reserves prove decisive in the final 200 yards.
SoldanteButter FingersPahlaviShannon Bank
D
Late Closer Surprise
10% probability
If the moderate pace completely falls apart and becomes a crawl to the second-last fence
The race turns into an absolute sprint where a horse with untapped finishing speed can come from nowhere. Fading finish concerns become irrelevant in such a short dash home.
L'Amiral FromentinLet Him BErnie From NurneyTequila Talkin'
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Soldante could steal this if allowed completely uncontested fractions with no pace pressure from the prominent runners
WATCH
Half A Chance and In The Trenches need the pace to develop properly or they'll be left with too much ground to make up
WATCH
Presenting Lad faces significant fitness questions after 189-day absence despite the attractive reduced handicap mark
NOTE
Courtbrack Boy's chase debut form suggests he could handle the step up in class if tracking the pace successfully
NOTE
Weather conditions could change the going description which would particularly impact horses returning from layoffs
6:08 — Wexford Town Handicap Chase
2m · Good To Soft · HCAP · 10 runners
Trasna Na Pairce to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Baltic Bird and Trasna Na Pairce led, as the map showed.
Crowsatedappletart won at 11.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Trasna Na Pairce is the only confirmed front-runner in this field and will be allowed to dictate terms from the start, setting a manageable pace without early pressure. Baltic Bird and Cappucino may track in second and third early, but neither will challenge the leader aggressively in the opening stages. This creates a tactical race where the pace will likely be steady through the middle sections before quickening from the second-last fence. The sustained gallop and lack of early pace pressure clearly favours hold-up horses who can produce late kicks, particularly those with proven stamina at this trip.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horses Dominate
55% probability
If the pace remains steady until the home turn as expected
Trasna Na Pairce sets uncontested fractions allowing closers to wind up from the back, with the race becoming a sprint finish where class and finishing kick matter most. Hold-up performers with proven turn of foot will have every chance to unleash their challenge.
Come On The LadsAn Peann DeargWar CorrespondentDutch Schultz
B
Front Runner Steals It
25% probability
If Trasna Na Pairce gets away with very slow fractions and kicks clear
The Henry De Bromhead runner exploits the lack of pace pressure to build an unassailable lead, with the field leaving their challenges too late on the testing ground. His front-running style proves perfectly suited when the pace collapses completely.
Trasna Na PairceCappucinoBaltic BirdCrowsatedappletart
C
Prominent Trackers Strike
12% probability
If Baltic Bird or Cappucino apply earlier pressure to the leader
The pace becomes more honest when prominent runners engage earlier, creating a stronger gallop that suits horses positioned handy who can quicken without needing to make up significant ground. This tactical shift benefits those racing in the first half of the field.
CappucinoBaltic BirdCome On The LadsKilbrin Rocco
D
Pace Collapses Completely
8% probability
If no horse challenges Trasna Na Pairce at any stage until too late
The race becomes a crawling affair where tactical positioning trumps class, allowing any horse to win regardless of ability if connections time their move perfectly. The finish becomes a lottery where the best-positioned horse on the day prevails.
Trasna Na Pairce gets uncontested lead - if no prominent runners engage early, he could steal the race with soft fractions
WATCH
Come On The Lads positioning in rear - needs clear run and strong pace to unleash proven finishing kick from hold-up position
NOTE
Baltic Bird travels smoothly despite 194-day break - fitness concerns may not matter if pace collapses as expected
WATCH
Cappucino applies early pressure to leader - any tactical change from prominent position could alter entire race dynamic
NOTE
An Peann Dearg gets competitive ride from Sean O'Keeffe - class horse whose chance depends entirely on strong pace developing
6:38 — Purple And Gold Beginners Chase
2m7f · Good To Soft · DEFAULT · 6 runners
One Big Boum likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
American Jukebox led; the map had One Big Boum in front.
D Art D Art won at 8.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
One Big Boum
Prominent · 1
Long Branch
Midfield · 2
Hiddenvalley LakeAmerican Jukebox
Hold Up · 2
Eclipse ChaserD Art D Art
One Big Boum appears the only confirmed front runner in this six-runner field, with Long Branch, American Jukebox and Hiddenvalley Lake all capable of racing prominently but none with automatic leading tendencies. Eclipse Chaser and D Art D Art will likely settle further back as hold-up performers. With just one natural leader, One Big Boum can dictate terms and set a comfortable pace without pressure, creating a race that builds steadily rather than developing into a sprint. This tactical setup strongly favours prominent racers who can track the leader and strike at the optimum moment.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Lead Prevails
45% probability
If One Big Boum gets an easy lead and isn't pressured early
The front runner can dictate fractions and prove hard to peg back up the hill, especially given his progressive profile over this trip. Hold-up horses face too much to do from off the pace with the race run to suit the leader.
One Big BoumLong BranchAmerican JukeboxHiddenvalley Lake
B
Prominent Tracker Strikes
30% probability
If Long Branch or American Jukebox track One Big Boum closely and time their challenge
The patient prominent runner can measure the leader's effort and strike when the pace lifts approaching the final fence. This allows them to benefit from the steady gallop while avoiding the front runner's workload.
Long BranchAmerican JukeboxHiddenvalley LakeOne Big Boum
C
Class Tells Late
15% probability
If Hiddenvalley Lake overcomes his sketchy recent form and produces his best
The highest-rated runner could use superior ability to make ground from mid-division despite the race shape not ideally suiting. His 154 hurdles rating gives him a significant class edge if he can reproduce past form.
Hiddenvalley LakeEclipse ChaserLong BranchOne Big Boum
D
Hold-Up Surprise
10% probability
If the pace collapses completely and becomes a sprint finish
Eclipse Chaser or D Art D Art could benefit from a truly-run race that sets up perfectly for closers. However, this requires the unlikely scenario of genuine early pace pressure on One Big Boum.
Eclipse ChaserD Art D ArtAmerican JukeboxLong Branch
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
One Big Boum must be monitored for how freely he travels in front - if laboring early the whole race dynamic changes
WATCH
Eclipse Chaser showed keen tendencies when pulled up last time - watch if he settles better with the tongue tie
NOTE
American Jukebox making chase debut after 81-day break - observe if ring rustiness affects his jumping fluency
WATCH
Long Branch carries Gordon Elliott's strong 14-day record but only 8 days since hard race at this track
NOTE
Hiddenvalley Lake's market position will indicate connections' confidence given his disappointing recent efforts
7:08 — Buy Tickets Online Novice Hunters Chase
2m7f · Good To Soft · NOV · 8 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
7:38 — Slaney Mares Point-To-Point INH Flat Race
2m1f · Good To Soft · DEFAULT · 10 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
8:08 — Racing Again 16th May (C & G) Point-To-Point INH Flat Race
2m1f · Good To Soft · DEFAULT · 8 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.