Archive›Wincanton · 12 April 2026

Wincanton

12 April 2026 · 8 races

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1:47 — Visit Bridles Care Home Wincanton Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

3m1f · Good · HCAP · 3 runners

Masterdream likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Masterdream led, as the map showed.

Mahler Moon won at 3.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Masterdream

Prominent · 1

Special John

Midfield · 1

Mahler Moon

Hold Up · 0

None

Masterdream will set the pace from the front with no genuine pace pressure in this small field of three. Special John and Mahler Moon both have prominent styles but are unlikely to challenge early over this marathon trip, allowing Masterdream to dictate terms throughout. The race will develop into a staying test from the home turn as the trio come together for a battle of stamina and finishing kick. This sustainable pace scenario strongly favours horses with proven stamina reserves and tactical speed - profiles that can quicken off a steady gallop rather than needing to overcome early pace pressure.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Masterdream Controls Throughout

45% probability

If Masterdream maintains his lead and finds his rhythm jumping well

He can use his front-running advantage to full effect over this stamina-sapping trip, with his rivals needing to find extra gears late. His three wins this season prove he thrives when allowed to dominate from the front.

MasterdreamSpecial JohnMahler Moon

Late Stamina Battle

30% probability

If all three are still in contention turning for home after the steady pace

The race becomes a pure test of stamina and finishing kick where Special John's recent wins over similar trips give him the edge. Mahler Moon's hurdles background could also prove crucial in a grinding finish.

Special JohnMahler MoonMasterdream

Mahler Moon Times Run

15% probability

If Mahler Moon travels strongly and Burke times his challenge perfectly

His recent Huntingdon win shows improved jumping and the 5-day turnaround keeps him sharp for this step up in trip. Burke's tactical skills could unlock further improvement over this longer distance.

Mahler MoonSpecial JohnMasterdream

Pace Collapse Finish

10% probability

If Masterdream's long break tells and he weakens from two out

The race becomes tactical with all three coming together late, where Special John's fresher profile gives him the advantage. His yard's confidence in stepping up to this level suggests untapped potential.

Special JohnMahler MoonMasterdream

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch Masterdream's jumping early - any mistakes will hand initiative to his rivals who can then dictate the tactical battle

WATCH

Monitor Special John's position turning in - if he's traveling well in behind Masterdream he becomes very dangerous late

NOTE

Check how Mahler Moon handles the early pace - if Burke lets him bowl along prominently he could steal a march

WATCH

Observe Masterdream's stamina reserves from two out - his long break makes him vulnerable to late challengers if tiring

NOTE

Watch for any tactical moves before the home turn as this small field could see cat-and-mouse tactics develop

2:20 — Dot Tolson Memorial Handicap Hurdle

3m½f · Good · HCAP · 3 runners

Sinchi Roca likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Byzantium led; the map had Sinchi Roca in front.

Kitty Foyle won at 5.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Sinchi Roca

Prominent · 1

Byzantium

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 1

Kitty Foyle

Sinchi Roca will lead from the start with his prominent style, setting a sustainable gallop over this extended trip. Byzantium will track in second through his prominent approach, while Kitty Foyle will be held up at the back given her hold-up style. With only three runners and Sinchi Roca confirmed as the pace-setter, this creates an uncontested lead scenario where the front runner can dictate terms. This race shape strongly favours front runners and prominent racers who can position close to the pace, as Kitty Foyle faces the difficult task of making up significant ground from the rear.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Wins

45% probability

If Sinchi Roca gets an easy lead and stays the extended trip

The front runner can control the tempo without pressure and kick clear approaching the last hurdle. Byzantium may track but struggles to reel in the leader who has first run on the field.

Sinchi RocaByzantiumKitty Foyle

Prominent Tracker Strikes

30% probability

If Byzantium travels well in second and Sinchi Roca weakens late

The Paul Nicholls runner uses his class advantage to sweep past a tiring leader in the final furlong. His good ground form and Harry Cobden's timing prove decisive.

ByzantiumSinchi RocaKitty Foyle

Hold-Up Horse Rallies

15% probability

If both pace horses go too fast early and come back to Kitty Foyle

The mare benefits from a strong gallop that stretches the field, allowing her stamina to tell in the closing stages. Her previous third at Kempton over this distance gives confidence she can stay.

Kitty FoyleByzantiumSinchi Roca

Pace Collapse Drama

10% probability

If Sinchi Roca stops suddenly and Byzantium also falters from tracking

Both prominent runners hit the wall simultaneously leaving Kitty Foyle to inherit despite being out-paced earlier. The 5lb claim from Robbie David becomes crucial in a weak finish.

Kitty FoyleByzantiumSinchi Roca

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Sinchi Roca getting too keen early and not settling - could compromise his stamina reserves for the long run-in

WATCH

Byzantium's jumping under pressure - needs to be slick at the business end to mount his challenge from second

NOTE

Kitty Foyle's position after two miles - if too far back she may not get into contention despite the strong pace

WATCH

Tom Bellamy's ride on Sinchi Roca - needs to judge the pace perfectly as the confirmed leader with no pressure

NOTE

Ground conditions holding up - all three have shown their best form on good ground so any deterioration could impact performance

2:55 — Bridles Care Home In Wincanton Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)

1m7f · Good · CLS4 · 8 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Eternity Rose led; the map had Pivotal Days and Kilnew Supreme and Blue Siam in front.

La Cadalora won at 3.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

Pivotal DaysKilnew SupremeBlue Siam

Prominent · 1

Siorai

Midfield · 2

Louis Des LandesTrooper

Hold Up · 2

La CadaloraEternity Rose

Kilnew Supreme, Pivotal Days and Blue Siam will set a strong gallop from the start, with all three natural front-runners unlikely to settle quietly in this small field. The early pace will be genuine as these three compete for the lead, creating a testing tempo that should suit horses with stamina reserves. This sustained gallop will stretch the field and expose any weaknesses in less experienced jumpers. The race shape strongly favors prominent racers and hold-up horses with proven stamina who can capitalize on the pace collapse.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Pace Suits Closer

45% probability

If the three front-runners go too hard early and tire approaching the final flight

The genuine gallop will set up perfectly for Siorai to track the pace and strike late, while La Cadalora can use her hold-up style to devastating effect. Both have the class and tactical speed to benefit from the collapse.

SioraiLa CadaloraEternity RoseKilnew Supreme

Front Runner Survives

30% probability

If Kilnew Supreme can dictate a more measured tempo despite the early pressure

His proven stamina over longer trips and course form gives him the edge to repel late challengers in a small field. The Nicholls runner has the class to control the race despite the competition for the lead.

Kilnew SupremePivotal DaysSioraiBlue Siam

Pace Collapses Completely

15% probability

If all three front-runners tie up badly in the final half-mile after going too fast

The race becomes a crawl that suits any horse with a turn of foot, allowing even the outsiders to get competitive. Eternity Rose could benefit from the slower tempo having struggled with stronger paces previously.

Eternity RoseLouis Des LandesLa CadaloraTrooper

Tactical Battle Emerges

10% probability

If the jockeys get cute and nobody wants to make the running despite their natural styles

The race becomes messy with stop-start fractions that don't suit anyone's preferred running style. This chaos could allow an outsider to steal it if the favorites get caught up in tactical maneuvers.

Louis Des LandesTrooperBlue SiamPivotal Days

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Kilnew Supreme is a non-runner despite being listed - confirm field changes before betting

WATCH

Watch if the three natural front-runners actually commit to making the running or get tactical

NOTE

Siorai has strong course form and will be popular given his class edge in this company

WATCH

La Cadalora adding tongue-tie suggests connections expect improved performance after poor debut

NOTE

Louis Des Landes has been off for 59 days and needs to show significant improvement to be competitive

3:27 — Bridles New Luxury Care Home Handicap Chase

1m7½f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners

Calgary Tiger to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Calgary Tiger led, as the map showed.

My Rockstar won at 3.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Calgary Tiger

Prominent · 2

Redbridge RamblerDaany

Midfield · 1

My Rockstar

Hold Up · 2

No GuaranteeRichforadaay

Calgary Tiger is the sole confirmed front runner and will dictate from the flag with no early pressure expected. The 11-year-old veteran should be allowed to bowl along at his own rhythm, creating a sustainable gallop that could see him still there turning for home. With prominent runners Redbridge Rambler, My Rockstar and Daany likely tracking behind, and hold-up horses No Guarantee and Richforadaay needing to come from off the pace, this race sets up ideally for prominent trackers who can sit close enough to strike but avoid the hard work of making the running.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

45% probability

If Calgary Tiger gets an easy lead and finds renewed form

The veteran gets first run on his rivals and proves hard to peg back up the hill. His front-running style becomes a tactical masterclass when unopposed.

Calgary TigerRedbridge RamblerMy Rockstar

Prominent Tracker Strikes

35% probability

If Calgary Tiger sets it up but weakens in the straight

Redbridge Rambler or My Rockstar capitalise on the pace-setter's hard work with a well-timed challenge. The solid gallop plays perfectly into their hands as they strike at the business end.

Redbridge RamblerMy RockstarCalgary TigerDaany

Hold-Up Horse Swoops

15% probability

If the pace becomes steady and suits closers

No Guarantee or Richforadaay benefit from a crawling tempo that allows them to unleash their finishing kick. The race becomes a sprint finish where their fresh legs tell.

No GuaranteeRichforadaayMy RockstarRedbridge Rambler

Complete Pace Collapse

5% probability

If Calgary Tiger stops quickly and creates chaos

The pace completely falls apart when the leader hits the wall early. This creates a messy tactical affair where any horse with some life left can pick up the pieces.

DaanyMy RockstarRichforadaayNo Guarantee

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Calgary Tiger's jumping under pressure - veteran hasn't been fluent recently and could make costly errors if challenged

WATCH

No Guarantee's stamina at this trip - pulled up on chase debut and may not stay if pace quickens

NOTE

Richforadaay's finishing kick - showed promise to a point on debut before fading and needs to prove he can sustain effort

WATCH

Redbridge Rambler's position early - must not get caught wide tracking Calgary Tiger around Wincanton's tight bends

NOTE

My Rockstar's improvement curve - dropping back in trip after two encouraging efforts at longer distances

4:00 — Bridles Care Home In Wincanton Handicap Hurdle

2m5½f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners

Time To Bite to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Time To Bite led, as the map showed.

John Barbour won at 4.50 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Time To Bite

Prominent · 2

Doc McCoyNardaran

Midfield · 2

ReallyntruthfullyKhafre

Hold Up · 1

John Barbour

Time To Bite will take this field along at a sustainable pace from the front, with no other confirmed pace-setters to pressure him early. The prominent runners Khafre, Reallyntruthfully, Doc McCoy and Nardaran will settle behind the leader, while John Barbour will track from further back as the sole hold-up performer. This setup creates a controlled tempo that should quicken from the home turn, building into a finish that will test stamina over the extended trip. The lack of early pace pressure strongly favours the front-runner and those able to travel prominently into contention.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Dominates

45% probability

If Time To Bite maintains his jumping rhythm and isn't pressured early.

His 11-year-old experience allows him to dictate terms perfectly, kicking clear approaching the last when the field comes under pressure. The prominent runners arrive too late to catch him as the sustained gallop plays to his front-running strengths.

Time To BiteKhafreReallyntruthfullyDoc McCoy

Prominent Tracker Strikes

30% probability

If one of the prominent runners can improve their jumping and travel smoothly behind Time To Bite.

The pace builds steadily but the quality prominent runners have enough in reserve to challenge from the home turn. Khafre or Doc McCoy capitalize on their higher ratings and stronger recent form to prevail.

KhafreDoc McCoyTime To BiteReallyntruthfully

Hold-Up Challenge Success

15% probability

If the early pace becomes stronger than expected or Time To Bite's jumping deteriorates.

John Barbour's stamina-laden profile comes into play as the race develops into a true test, allowing him to close strongly from off the pace. His Fergal O'Brien yard form and distance specialist credentials prove decisive in a finish that falls apart for the leaders.

John BarbourNardaranDoc McCoyTime To Bite

Pace Collapse Finish

10% probability

If Time To Bite sets too slow a pace and multiple horses remain with winning chances turning in.

The lack of early pressure creates a sprint finish where class and tactical positioning matter most. The field bunches up approaching the last hurdle, creating a cavalry charge where any of five runners could prevail.

Doc McCoyJohn BarbourKhafreNardaran

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Time To Bite's jumping rhythm early - any mistakes will invite pressure and compromise his front-running tactics.

WATCH

Doc McCoy's fitness levels after 168 days off despite strong work reports from Jamie Snowden's yard.

WATCH

John Barbour's positioning early - needs to be close enough to strike if the pace becomes pedestrian.

NOTE

Khafre's confidence jumping - looked assured at Taunton and another fluent round could see him go close.

NOTE

The pace through the first mile - if too slow it opens the door for hold-up horses to close strongly.

4:30 — Bruton Mares' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

1m7½f · Good · HCAP · 4 runners

Obsessedwithyou to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Obsessedwithyou led, as the map showed.

Obsessedwithyou won at 3.75 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Obsessedwithyou

Prominent · 1

Queens Gamble

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 2

Somespring SpecialNorthern Air

Obsessedwithyou will set the pace uncontested from the front, with Queens Gamble tracking in second and the two hold-up horses Somespring Special and Northern Air settling at the back. With only four runners and one clear front-runner, this will develop into a methodical chase where Obsessedwithyou can dictate fractions without pressure. The small field means less cover for the hold-up horses, while Queens Gamble gets an ideal position to track and strike. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can sit close to the pace and kick, as the lack of early pressure allows tactical positioning over pure stamina.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Queens Gamble Pounces

45% probability

If Queens Gamble can track Obsessedwithyou smoothly and the pace stays honest.

Paul O'Brien can time his challenge perfectly from second position while the hold-up horses struggle for cover in the small field. Queens Gamble's class edge tells when unleashed with superior tactical positioning.

Queens GambleObsessedwithyouSomespring SpecialNorthern Air

Front Runner Dominates

30% probability

If Obsessedwithyou jumps fluently and maintains strong galloping rhythm throughout.

The 175-day break proves irrelevant as Obsessedwithyou uses her natural pace advantage to build an unassailable lead turning for home. The small field plays into her hands as tracking horses can't benefit from slipstreaming.

ObsessedwithyouQueens GambleSomespring SpecialNorthern Air

Somespring Special Swoops

15% probability

If the early pace becomes modest and Somespring Special gets a clean run from the back.

Harry Cobden times his move to perfection as the hold-up mare uses her proven class to sweep past tiring leaders in the final furlong. Her Chepstow form gives her the quality edge when delivered with a perfectly-timed challenge.

Somespring SpecialQueens GambleObsessedwithyouNorthern Air

Northern Air Surprise

10% probability

If the other three go too hard early and Northern Air benefits from the collapse.

The pace becomes unsustainable between Obsessedwithyou and Queens Gamble, allowing Northern Air to pick up the pieces despite her modest profile. Her recent Jeffreys stable form provides just enough improvement to capitalize on others' mistakes.

Northern AirSomespring SpecialQueens GambleObsessedwithyou

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Obsessedwithyou's jumping fluency after 175 days off - any early mistakes will compromise her front-running tactics immediately.

WATCH

Queens Gamble's ability to settle behind the leader rather than racing keenly given her prominent style preferences.

WATCH

Somespring Special finding racing room in the small field as hold-up horses often struggle without sufficient cover.

NOTE

Northern Air's improvement from stable debut for D J Jeffreys after recent move from Dan Skelton's yard.

NOTE

Early pace development between Obsessedwithyou and Queens Gamble - if they go too fast it opens the door for closers.

5:00 — Visit Bridles Care Home Wincanton Handicap Hurdle

1m7f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Victory Shout to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Little Lady Lucy led; the map had Victory Shout in front.

Little Lady Lucy won at 26.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Victory Shout

Prominent · 2

Postponed LegacyPrince Rhinegold

Midfield · 3

AnthraciteSaucatsLittle Lady Lucy

Hold Up · 3

Ribba HillUgo BingoForest Hills

Victory Shout will take this field along as the sole natural front runner, setting what should be a sustainable gallop without serious early pressure. Prince Rhinegold and Postponed Legacy can sit prominent behind the leader, while the bulk of the field - Ugo Bingo, Ribba Hill, Saucats, Little Lady Lucy, Forest Hills, and Anthracite - are hold-up merchants who will need the race to develop. With so many hold-up horses in a modest 9-runner field, the lack of early pace pressure means Victory Shout can dictate terms and potentially steal this from the front. This race shape strongly favours the prominent runners who can track the modest pace and those patient types with genuine finishing kick over the hold-up horses who may find too little pace to aim at.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Victory Shout Controls

45% probability

If Victory Shout gets uncontested lead and finds rhythm

The confirmed front runner dictates a steady pace that suits his stamina, with the mass of hold-up horses leaving their runs too late to catch him. His recent Taunton win shows he's in form and can handle being ridden out when pressed.

Victory ShoutPrince RhinegoldPostponed LegacyRibba Hill

Prominent Trackers Strike

30% probability

If Prince Rhinegold or Postponed Legacy track Victory Shout perfectly

The patient prominently-ridden horses get ideal tow into the race and have enough left to collar the leader in final furlong. Prince Rhinegold's course form gives him edge while Postponed Legacy has shown progressive profile when right.

Postponed LegacyPrince RhinegoldVictory ShoutUgo Bingo

Hold-Up Horses Benefit

15% probability

If early pace becomes stronger than expected or Victory Shout stops quickly

The lack of natural pace-forcers means any hold-up horse with genuine class can pick up the pieces late. Ugo Bingo drops to good mark while Ribba Hill showed promise when second here recently.

Ugo BingoRibba HillSaucatsVictory Shout

Outsider Surprise Package

10% probability

If pace collapses completely or favourite underperforms badly

Tactical race becomes messy sprint finish where any horse can capitalize on loose running. The longshots with even modest ability could sneak into frame if chaos ensues.

SaucatsLittle Lady LucyForest HillsAnthracite

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Victory Shout getting easy lead could prove decisive as hold-up majority leaves them with too much to do in tactical affair

WATCH

Prince Rhinegold's fading tendency makes him unreliable despite course form advantage and prominent running style

NOTE

Postponed Legacy's 34-day break and new headgear could spark improvement after disappointing when racing too freely last time

WATCH

Ugo Bingo's new headgear combination showed no improvement when wilting here last time despite dropping in class

NOTE

Ribba Hill remains 0-6 over hurdles despite recent promise, needs to finally convert placed efforts into victory

5:30 — Castle Cary Mares' Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)

1m7f · Good · CLS2 · 5 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 12 April 2026.

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