Archive›Windsor · 11 May 2026

Windsor

11 May 2026 · 7 races

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5:12 — Find Us At fitzdares.com Amateur Jockeys' Handicap

1m2f · Good · HCAP · 13 runners

Bownder likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Little She and Alazwar and Thursday led; the map had Bownder in front.

Hengest won at 5.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up.

3 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Bownder

Prominent · 2

ShowmedemoneyAlazwar

Midfield · 6

Lenny's SpiritShow Biz KidTake The BoatThursdayLittle SheWrist Art

Hold Up · 4

Silver GunnI'd Go ManiacPlatinum PrinceHengest

Bownder stands as the sole confirmed front-runner with Showmedemoney and Alazwar likely to press forward early, creating a moderate pace in this 13-runner handicap over 1m2f. The bulk of the field comprises hold-up horses including Silver Gunn, Platinum Prince, I'd Go Maniac, and Take The Boat, suggesting the pace will be allowed to settle after the initial exchanges. With limited early speed and a large contingent of closers, this race shape strongly favours horses that can sit handy or close from off the pace, as the modest gallop will set up a sprint finish that rewards those with tactical speed.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Sustained Gallop Suits Closers

65% probability

If Bownder and the early pace-setters maintain a steady rhythm without folding

The moderate tempo allows the hold-up brigade to close effectively in the straight. Patient rides on the better handicapped closers prove decisive as they pick off tiring leaders.

Silver GunnTake The BoatI'd Go ManiacShow Biz Kid

Pace Collapse Benefits Leaders

20% probability

If the early pace becomes pedestrian with Bownder unchallenged

The lack of pressure allows Bownder to dictate completely, making it difficult for closers to make up ground. Those positioned prominently or able to travel kindly in midfield benefit most.

BownderShowmedemoneyAlazwarHengest

Strong Early Gallop

12% probability

If Showmedemoney and Alazwar force a stronger pace pressuring Bownder

The increased tempo stretches the field and sets up a true staying test over 1m2f. Horses with proven stamina reserves and recent fitness edge come to the fore.

ThursdayI'd Go ManiacLenny's SpiritTake The Boat

Tactical Sprint Finish

3% probability

If the pace becomes crawling allowing most of the field to remain in contention

A bunch sprint develops where tactical positioning and amateur jockey errors become crucial. The best treated horses with natural speed can capitalise on any gaps.

Little SheWrist ArtHengestAlazwar

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Bownder must bounce back from Doncaster flop as the only natural leader - if he fails to show early speed the pace could collapse

WATCH

Amateur jockey factor crucial with seven inexperienced riders including 7lb claimers on Platinum Prince, Bownder and Showmedemoney in key pace roles

NOTE

Silver Gunn's headgear application and fresh approach suggest connections expect improvement from disappointing Yarmouth return

WATCH

Take The Boat dropping back in trip after recent longer distance success - the 1m2f may not provide enough stamina test

NOTE

Thursday's light weight and proven Windsor form on fast ground makes her interesting despite limited recent racing

5:42 — Fitzdares Telephone & Text Betting Restricted Novice Stakes (Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)

1m2f · Good · NOV · 14 runners

Cape Fear likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Relentless Hero and Seraglio Point and Clough led; the map had Cape Fear in front.

Fighter's Spirit won at 1.73. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Cape Fear

Prominent · 2

My Mate RogerRelentless Hero

Midfield · 7

Sax AvoidanceLong ReignBattle HymnMokataMister PretentiousBillingsgate GoldClough

Hold Up · 4

Fighter's SpiritProbationBarak WarriorSeraglio Point

Cape Fear will be the primary pace-setter from the front, with My Mate Roger and Relentless Hero likely to track him prominently through the early stages. The sustainable gallop will suit the hold-up horses in the field, particularly Fighter's Spirit who showed a strong finishing kick when winning at Beverley over this trip. With only one confirmed front runner and several hold-up performers including Fighter's Spirit, Probation, and Barak Warrior, this race shape clearly favours closers who can produce a late challenge.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses dominate

55% probability

If Cape Fear sets an even tempo without pressure from prominent trackers

The pace becomes pedestrian allowing closers to unleash decisive kicks in the final two furlongs. Fighter's Spirit and other hold-up horses get the perfect setup to reproduce their best form.

Fighter's SpiritProbationSeraglio PointBarak Warrior

Prominent duo prevails

25% probability

If My Mate Roger or Relentless Hero can apply early pressure to Cape Fear

The increased tempo stretches the field and favours horses with tactical speed who can position close to the pace. My Mate Roger's consistency at this level makes him the primary beneficiary.

My Mate RogerCape FearRelentless HeroBattle Hymn

Front runner steals it

12% probability

If Cape Fear gets completely uncontested fractions through the first mile

He builds an insurmountable lead that the closers cannot peg back despite their late flourish. Cape Fear's recent Beverley form suggests he has the class edge when allowed easy splits.

Cape FearMy Mate RogerFighter's SpiritRelentless Hero

Outsider strikes late

8% probability

If the pace collapses completely and becomes a sprint finish

A lightly raced improver like Battle Hymn or Seraglio Point produces an unexpected turn of foot. The tactical nature of the race allows an outsider to find gaps and capitalize on the chaos.

Battle HymnSeraglio PointLong ReignSax Avoidance

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Fighter's Spirit could dominate if getting the same finishing kick he showed when winning at Beverley over this exact trip

WATCH

Cape Fear's early positioning will be crucial as he needs to avoid being bustled along by prominent trackers

NOTE

My Mate Roger's ability to handle the step up to 1m2f after two promising efforts over shorter distances

WATCH

Battle Hymn was heavily backed on debut despite finishing fourth, market support could indicate significant improvement expected

NOTE

The debutant Sax Avoidance represents an unknown quantity for Charlie Pike who has limited recent runners

6:17 — Fitzdares Sprint Series Handicap (Windsor Sprint Series Qualifier)

6f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners

Zoulu Chief likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Change Sings led; the map had Zoulu Chief in front.

Purest Time won at 13.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield.

1 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Zoulu Chief

Prominent · 3

PhotosynthesisDiligentlyChange Sings

Midfield · 4

Carbine HarvesterPurest TimeAn Outlaw's GraceUnder The Twilight

Hold Up · 3

Desert CopBadriAccrual

Zoulu Chief looks the sole committed early leader with his prominent style, meaning he can dictate terms without pressure through the early stages. The majority of this field are hold-up performers (Badri, Under The Twilight, An Outlaw's Grace, Desert Cop, Accrual) who will settle behind the pace, while prominent runners Change Sings, Photosynthesis, Diligently and Carbine Harvester may track just behind Zoulu Chief. With good to firm ground and one uncontested leader over 6f, this sets up as a steady early pace that will quicken from 2f out as the large hold-up contingent makes their moves. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can sit close enough to the pace to strike when it quickens, avoiding the traffic problems that will engulf the massed ranks of hold-up horses.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Dominate

55% probability

If the hold-up horses get caught in traffic turning for home

The early pace will be manageable with Zoulu Chief unopposed, allowing prominent runners to position perfectly and kick clear before the hold-up brigade can organize their challenges. Photosynthesis, Diligently and Change Sings are best placed to capitalize on this tactical advantage.

PhotosynthesisDiligentlyChange SingsZoulu Chief

Hold-Up Hero Emerges

25% probability

If the large contingent of hold-up horses get clear runs simultaneously

The pace will be steady enough early that one of the better hold-up performers can weave through traffic and produce a strong late surge. Under The Twilight's course form and Badri's proven ability at the track give them the best chances of executing this style.

Under The TwilightBadriDesert CopPurest Time

Zoulu Chief Wire-To-Wire

12% probability

If no prominent runner can get close enough to challenge the leader

With the field sitting too far back and no pressure early, Zoulu Chief maintains his advantage throughout and holds off late challenges. His recent Leicester run showed he can weaken when pressured, but here he may get an easier lead.

Zoulu ChiefCarbine HarvesterDiligentlyChange Sings

Chaos Finish Surprise

8% probability

If the pace collapses completely in the final furlong

A bunched finish where positioning matters more than ratings could see a lesser light prevail through good navigation. The wide draw actually helps Accrual avoid trouble while others get shuffled back in a scramble.

AccrualCarbine HarvesterAn Outlaw's GracePurest Time

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Zoulu Chief could get an uncontested lead and prove hard to peg back if the field settles too far behind

WATCH

Traffic problems likely in home straight with seven hold-up horses all looking for racing room simultaneously

NOTE

Photosynthesis showed improvement at Ascot on Friday and quick return suggests connections are confident

WATCH

Under The Twilight's course record makes her dangerous if she gets a clear run from her hold-up position

NOTE

Change Sings returning to good ground after two efforts on slower surfaces may spark improvement

6:47 — Padel Maidenhead Anniversary Cup Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race)

6f · Good · NOV · 12 runners

Sargent Dennis to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Startled Lady and Cougar Force and Mooj led; the map had Sargent Dennis in front.

Sargent Dennis won at 2.25 — raced midfield, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Sargent Dennis

Prominent · 1

Mooj

Midfield · 6

Mr JeffreyRivera QueenPercy's StarMayflower RockMoravianCougar Force

Hold Up · 4

Vicit VentureStartled LadyGrand VistaStar With Purpose

Sargent Dennis will take up the lead without pressure, having already shown front-running tendencies in his last three AW outings. Mooj could sit prominently early but may not sustain pressure, leaving Sargent Dennis to dictate comfortable fractions through the first half. The hold-up brigade including Startled Lady, Grand Vista, and Star With Purpose will be relying on pace collapse, but with only one confirmed leader the tempo may prove too modest. This honest but undemanding pace setup favours horses that can track the leader and kick from prominent positions rather than those needing a strong gallop to set up their finishing kicks.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Front Runner

45% probability

If Sargent Dennis gets an easy lead and comfortable fractions

Tom Marquand can dictate terms from the front without serious pressure, allowing his mount to find another gear when challenged in the final furlong. The lack of pace pressure plays directly into the hands of the proven AW front-runner who has been progressive in this exact scenario.

Sargent DennisMoojPercy's StarRivera Queen

Hold-Up Heroes Strike

30% probability

If the early pace becomes genuinely strong with multiple prominent runners

The increased gallop will set up the race perfectly for the closers who can unleash late kicks. Startled Lady and Grand Vista have both shown ability to finish strongly when the pace is honest, while Star With Purpose ran on well on debut.

Startled LadyGrand VistaStar With PurposeCougar Force

Prominent Tracker Pounce

15% probability

If Mooj or Percy's Star can sit second and challenge late

The tactical advantage of tracking the leader while staying out of trouble allows them to strike at the optimal moment. Both have shown glimpses of ability that could translate to success if they can avoid the finishing fade that has troubled them previously.

MoojPercy's StarRivera QueenSargent Dennis

Pace Collapses Completely

10% probability

If Sargent Dennis sets crawling fractions and the field bunches

The race becomes a pure sprint finish where any horse with tactical speed can win regardless of running style. This chaotic finish could suit an outsider like Rivera Queen or even allow a fader like Mr Jeffrey to sneak into contention.

Rivera QueenMr JeffreyVicit VentureMayflower Rock

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Sargent Dennis could steal this if allowed uncontested lead, with Tom Marquand expert at controlling pace from the front

WATCH

Watch for market moves on Percy's Star given De Sousa booking and his encouraging debut speed figures

WATCH

Startled Lady has course form and wears hood again, her hold-up style could be dangerous if pace develops

NOTE

Rivera Queen has been off track for long periods between runs, any market support would be significant

NOTE

Mooj showed best form on turf debut and returns to similar conditions after disappointing AW run

7:17 — Phil Rendell's Fifty-Tenth Birthday Handicap

5f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Over Spiced to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Danger Alert led; the map had Over Spiced in front.

Correspondence won at 4.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Over Spiced

Prominent · 3

Thunder StarMerrimackCorrespondence

Midfield · 2

Roman SpringDanger Alert

Hold Up · 2

Cayman TaiDiamond Dreamer

Over Spiced will lead from the gates with minimal pressure, having won at Bath last week and showing consistent front-running form. Correspondence, Thunder Star, Merrimack and Roman Spring will track behind in prominent positions, but none are committed pace pressers. The lack of early speed creates a moderate gallop that will quicken significantly in the final two furlongs. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can produce a sustained finish, as the soft early pace will leave plenty in reserve for the closing stages.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Sustained Kick Prevails

55% probability

If Over Spiced sets uncontested fractions through halfway

The pace quickens dramatically from 2f out as hold-up runners unleash their finishing kicks. Cayman Tai and Diamond Dreamer benefit most from the strong gallop, having been conserved early by patient riding.

Cayman TaiDiamond DreamerDanger AlertOver Spiced

Front Pair Hold On

25% probability

If Over Spiced maintains a strong gallop throughout without backing off

The honest pace prevents late closers from making significant inroads in the sprint finish. Over Spiced and the prominent runners like Correspondence prove too strong for the hold-up horses who lack the tactical speed.

Over SpicedCorrespondenceThunder StarRoman Spring

Prominent Striker Wins

15% probability

If the pace becomes stop-start with Over Spiced slowing mid-race

Roman Spring or Thunder Star capitalize on their handy positions to strike at the perfect moment. Their tactical speed and race fitness allows them to exploit the uneven tempo before late closers can respond.

Roman SpringThunder StarMerrimackCayman Tai

Chaos Sprint Finish

5% probability

If multiple horses challenge Over Spiced simultaneously from 3f out

A bunched field enters the final furlong with no clear advantage to any running style. The race becomes a pure speed test where any horse can prevail depending on racing room and jockey timing.

Diamond DreamerMerrimackCorrespondenceDanger Alert

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Over Spiced if showing any signs of stopping in the final furlong after setting the pace throughout

WATCH

Cayman Tai for a strong late run from the rear, particularly if getting a clear passage in the straight

NOTE

Correspondence for immediate improvement with first-time cheekpieces and patient Tom Marquand ride

WATCH

Diamond Dreamer if showing early speed to get a more prominent position than usual hold-up style

NOTE

Roman Spring for tactical speed from his handy draw if the pace becomes moderate early

7:47 — Rendells Are Hammers Handicap

1m · Good · HCAP · 13 runners

Ohara to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Magical Merlot and Dumuji and Ohara and Dartrey led, as the map showed.

Wild Thoughts won at 4.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Ohara

Prominent · 5

DumujiCashboxAbundantMidnight RodeoDartrey

Midfield · 3

Brave HunterBerkshire BoomAnnastarzy

Hold Up · 4

Here I BowAkho MezznaWild ThoughtsMagical Merlot

Ohara is the sole confirmed front-runner and will lead uncontested through steady fractions, creating a sustainable pace without early pressure. The prominent horses (Abundant, Berkshire Boom, Dumuji, Dartrey, Midnight Rodeo, Cashbox) will track in a loose group behind, while the hold-up brigade (Akho Mezzna, Annastarzy, Magical Merlot, Here I Bow, Wild Thoughts) sit further back waiting to pounce. With Ohara allowed an easy lead and plenty of hold-up horses needing to make ground, this sets up perfectly for PROMINENT runners who can sit close enough to strike but avoid the traffic problems that will engulf the back markers. The tactical advantage lies with those tracking the leader in second or third position.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Strike

45% probability

If Ohara sets steady fractions without early pressure from prominent trackers

The pace becomes too slow for hold-up horses to make serious inroads, while prominent runners like Abundant, Dumuji and Dartrey can quicken off the steady gallop. Traffic problems compound issues for the back-markers as the field concertinas.

AbundantDumujiDartreyMidnight Rodeo

Hold-Up Heroes Rally

30% probability

If the pace becomes truly crawling and turns into a sprint finish

Wild Thoughts and Annastarzy get the strong pace they need in the final two furlongs to unleash their finishing kicks. The hold-up horses find clear runs as the field spreads out in the closing stages.

Wild ThoughtsAnnastarzyMagical MerlotAkho Mezzna

Front Runner Sustains

15% probability

If Ohara gets completely uncontested fractions and stays strong

The leader builds an unassailable advantage as prominent horses fail to apply enough pressure early enough. Hold-up horses have too much ground to make up on the testing ground conditions.

OharaBerkshire BoomAbundantCashbox

Pace Collapse Chaos

10% probability

If multiple prominent horses track too close and create stop-start fractions

The race becomes a messy tactical affair where early positioning proves crucial and late runners get hampered. Horses with the most tactical speed from good positions benefit from the scramble.

CashboxDumujiDartreyBrave Hunter

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Wild Thoughts carries double penalty burden after three consecutive wins - weight may finally halt remarkable run

WATCH

Ohara faces first start in 203 days as the sole leader - any fitness deficit will be brutally exposed

WATCH

Dartrey makes turf debut after dominating artificial surface wins - surface switch creates major unknown

NOTE

Akho Mezzna showed nothing at Newmarket last time - needs significant bounce-back from disappointing reappearance

NOTE

Multiple hold-up horses will create traffic problems in home straight - early positioning crucial for back markers

8:17 — Track Radio On Digital & DAB Fillies' Handicap

1m3½f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Lilly Lux to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Sea Of Charm and Emma's Letter led; the map had Lilly Lux in front.

Sibling Rivelry won at 4.50 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Lilly Lux

Prominent · 3

Emma's LetterPangbourneMrembo

Midfield · 3

Kindly QueenSea Of CharmQueen Of Astolat

Hold Up · 3

Society GirlSibling RivelryPershalla

Lilly Lux will lead from the start with Mrembo, Emma's Letter and Pangbourne settling prominently behind her. With only one confirmed front runner, Lilly Lux can dictate a comfortable rhythm through the early stages without pressure. The extended trip at 1m3½f means the pace is likely to be steady early, building gradually with the prominent runners tracking the leader into the straight. This sustainable gallop and lack of early pressure clearly favours hold-up horses who can finish strongly, particularly those proven at this stamina-testing distance.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Lead Holds

45% probability

If Lilly Lux maintains her advantage turning for home without being seriously challenged

The lack of pace pressure allows her to save energy for a final kick, while the hold-up horses find themselves with too much ground to make up in the straight. Sea Of Charm's course knowledge and Lilly Lux's front-running style prove decisive.

Lilly LuxSea Of CharmMremboPershalla

Strong Stayers Prevail

30% probability

If the steady pace sets up a genuine stamina test in the final three furlongs

The patient tactics of Sibling Rivelry and Pershalla pay dividends as they sweep past tiring leaders, with their proven ability at this extended trip coming to the fore. The hold-up specialists find their ideal scenario.

Sibling RivelryPershallaKindly QueenSociety Girl

Prominent Trackers Strike

15% probability

If Mrembo or Emma's Letter time their challenges perfectly from their tracking positions

The prominent runners get first run on the leader while staying clear of traffic problems, exploiting their tactical position to strike before the hold-up horses can get into gear. Their mid-race positioning proves optimal.

MremboEmma's LetterLilly LuxPangbourne

Pace Collapse Benefit

10% probability

If the early pace becomes unexpectedly strong with multiple horses vying for the lead

A fierce early battle sets up the race perfectly for the deep closers, allowing horses like Queen Of Astolat and Society Girl to pick up the pieces. The stamina test becomes extreme, suiting only the strongest stayers.

Society GirlQueen Of AstolatSibling RivelryKindly Queen

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Lilly Lux could steal this if she gets an uncontested lead and none of the hold-up horses can reel her in

WATCH

Watch Pershalla's hood situation closely as removal of headgear after recent win could affect her settling

NOTE

Sibling Rivelry returns after 202 days but his class and distance record suggest he could be primed

WATCH

Queen Of Astolat without hood for first time and returning from long break creates significant uncertainty

NOTE

Track the early pace through Mrembo and Emma's Letter as they could be best placed if leaders weaken

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 11 May 2026.

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