6:30 — Download The Raceday Ready App Apprentice Handicap
1m½f · Standard · HCAP · 8 runners
Devious Devan likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Shielas Well led; the map had Devious Devan in front.
Devious Devan won at 5.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Devious Devan
Prominent · 1
Fumbleinthejungle
Midfield · 4
Shielas WellBossy ParkerStreet DancerAngel's Call
Hold Up · 2
Prince AliAl Baahy
Devious Devan will lead from the start with Fumbleinthejungle potentially tracking but both have fade-in-finish warnings that make them vulnerable late. With six hold-up horses including course winners Prince Ali and Bossy Parker, this will become a tactical affair with horses queuing up behind a moderate early gallop. The sustainable pace will suit closers who can quicken off the bridle, while the early leaders face being swamped in the final furlong. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can deliver late kicks.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horses Dominate
65% probability
If Devious Devan sets steady fractions and the pace doesn't quicken until late
The backmarkers get perfect positioning as the early leaders weaken predictably, allowing multiple closers to challenge simultaneously. Prince Ali and Bossy Parker's course form becomes decisive as they outfinish the fading pace-setters.
Prince AliBossy ParkerAl BaahyShielas Well
B
Devious Devan Holds On
20% probability
If Devious Devan gets soft fractions and finds extra resolve in the finish
Despite his fade-in-finish warning, he gets an easy lead and kicks clear before the hold-up brigade can organize their challenge. The closers leave it too late as the leader's class tells.
Devious DevanPrince AliBossy ParkerAl Baahy
C
Fumbleinthejungle Ambush
8% probability
If Fumbleinthejungle tracks Devious Devan closely and both leaders collapse late
The prominent runner gets first run on the fading leader but also weakens, creating chaos as the field concertinas in the straight. Street Dancer or Angel's Call could profit from the melee with better finishing kicks.
Street DancerAngel's CallAl BaahyShielas Well
D
Pace Collapse Scramble
7% probability
If both early leaders fade dramatically and no hold-up horse can organize a clear run
The race becomes a messy sprint finish where positioning matters more than ability, potentially suiting whoever gets the clearest passage. Al Baahy's recent course experience could prove valuable in the chaos.
Al BaahyShielas WellStreet DancerAngel's Call
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Devious Devan getting easy fractions early could make him hard to peg back despite his finishing limitations
WATCH
Prince Ali's 29-day break affecting his fitness levels when the pace quickens in the straight
NOTE
Shielas Well's reaction to first-time blinkers could unlock improvement after recent respectable efforts
WATCH
Both prominent runners Devious Devan and Fumbleinthejungle fading simultaneously and creating a pace collapse
NOTE
Street Dancer's stamina holding out at this longer trip given her sprint pedigree and previous 7f efforts
7:00 — Get Raceday Ready Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)
1m½f · Standard · NOV · 7 runners
Romance Spirit likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Golden Mabel led; the map had Romance Spirit in front.
Bintaziza won at 1.12 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Romance Spirit
Prominent · 1
Symphony's Song
Midfield · 3
WostaGolden MabelMidnight Media
Hold Up · 2
BintazizaGuesstimate
Romance Spirit and Symphony's Song will likely set a steady pace from the front, with no other confirmed pace pressers in this small field. The lack of early speed creates a sustainable tempo that will suit those who can sustain their effort. With most runners preferring to come from behind (Bintaziza, Midnight Media, Guesstimate), the pace-setters won't face early pressure but will need to find acceleration when the closers mount their challenges in the straight. This moderate pace scenario clearly favours hold-up horses who can deliver strong finishing kicks over those dependent on dictating terms.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Closers Dominant Finish
55% probability
If the early pace remains pedestrian as expected with Romance Spirit and Symphony's Song uncontested.
The hold-up horses get the perfect setup to unleash finishing kicks, with Bintaziza and Guesstimate perfectly positioned to strike. The lack of early pace allows stamina to tell over the extended distance.
BintazizaGuesstimateWostaMidnight Media
B
Pace Collapse Late
25% probability
If Romance Spirit and Symphony's Song go too slow early then fail to quicken when challenged.
The race becomes a sprint finish where class tells, allowing the better-rated horses to exploit their superiority. Wosta's unknown ability and Bintaziza's proven form become decisive factors.
WostaBintazizaRomance SpiritGuesstimate
C
Front Runner Survives
12% probability
If Romance Spirit maintains steady fractions then finds extra gear when pressed.
The leader gets first run on her rivals and stays ahead of the closing pack. Symphony's Song could also benefit from prominent positioning if she shows more than recent form suggests.
Romance SpiritSymphony's SongBintazizaGuesstimate
D
Outsider Strikes
8% probability
If the market leaders fail to fire and one of the longer shots finds unexpected improvement.
Golden Mabel or Symphony's Song could exploit a false pace or benefit from the extended trip. Their light weights and potential for progress could overcome class disadvantages.
Golden MabelSymphony's SongMidnight MediaRomance Spirit
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Romance Spirit could get an easy lead if Symphony's Song doesn't show pace, making her very dangerous
WATCH
Wosta's market support will reveal Gosden's expectations for this unraced filly from powerful stable
WATCH
Midnight Media's tendency to fade badly in the final furlong makes her unreliable despite decent positions
NOTE
Bintaziza's 100% record on similar going gives her a significant edge if the pace setup suits
NOTE
Symphony's Song's 425-day absence makes her fitness questionable despite the extended trip suiting
7:30 — Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com Handicap
1m1½f · Standard · HCAP · 4 runners
Lexington Express to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Lexington Express led, as the map showed.
Lexington Express won at 2.88 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Lexington Express
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 1
Tinsel
Hold Up · 2
ZipwireMimi's Magic
Lexington Express will dictate from the front with no genuine pace pressure, having won his last two starts leading throughout on the all-weather. Zipwire, Mimi's Magic and Tinsel all prefer to be held up, creating a tactical scenario where the leader faces minimal early harassment. The lack of prominent racers means Lexington Express can control splits and kick when ready. This race shape strongly favours the front runner and any horse that can track close early, while hold-up horses face the difficult task of making up ground against an uncontested leader.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Front Runner
60% probability
If Lexington Express gets an easy lead and controlled fractions
Marco Ghiani can dictate every fraction without pressure, then quicken when the hold-up horses are still organizing their challenges. The lack of pace pressure creates the perfect scenario for a confirmed front-runner with recent winning form.
Lexington ExpressZipwireMimi's MagicTinsel
B
Hold-Up Horse Charges
25% probability
If the pace becomes genuinely testing or Lexington Express stops
Zipwire's headgear improvement and class edge could tell in a sprint finish, especially with the 3lb weight advantage over the leader. Tinsel also brings fresh legs after 136 days off and was a course winner last time.
ZipwireTinselLexington ExpressMimi's Magic
C
Pace Collapse Finish
10% probability
If Lexington Express goes too slow early and multiple horses quicken together
All four runners arrive in a bunch turning for home, creating a cavalry charge where Mimi's Magic's recent run and Tom Marquand's tactical awareness on Tinsel could prove decisive. The 3lb weight spread keeps them tightly bunched.
Mimi's MagicTinselZipwireLexington Express
D
Leader Stops Suddenly
5% probability
If Lexington Express hits the front too early or the 3lb penalty bites
The front-runner's recent quick return and step up in class catches up with him in the final furlong, allowing the hold-up horses to sweep past. Zipwire's proven course form becomes crucial in a late rally.
ZipwireMimi's MagicTinselLexington Express
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
If Lexington Express gets first quarter-mile uncontested, the hold-up horses face nearly impossible task
WATCH
Zipwire's 40-day absence could blunt finishing kick despite headgear improvement and weight advantage
NOTE
Tom Marquand may force earlier pace on Tinsel to prevent Lexington Express from controlling completely
NOTE
Marco Ghiani's front-running tactics on Lexington Express will dictate whether others get any chance
WATCH
Mimi's Magic needs pace pressure early or will struggle to make up ground from her hold-up position
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7f · Standard · HCAP · 12 runners
Amber Hamur to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Amber Hamur led, as the map showed.
Musical Soldier won at 9.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Amber Hamur
Prominent · 3
Apex StarAmazing AnitaPoetic Grace
Midfield · 4
Pink Diamond GirlMusical SoldierEast India BreezeAmakhala
Hold Up · 4
EvolvePower Of ChoraCastlekeelyBear Steps
Amber Hamur is the sole confirmed front-runner and will dictate proceedings from the bell, likely getting an uncontested lead in the early stages. Amazing Anita, Apex Star and Poetic Grace can track prominently but none are aggressive pace-pressers, allowing Amber Hamur to control fractions. The majority field comprises hold-up horses including Power Of Chora, Pink Diamond Girl, Evolve, Castlekeely, Bear Steps, Musical Soldier, Amakhala and East India Breeze, creating a bunched finish scenario. This tactical setup strongly favours the pace-setter and prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will engulf the large pack of hold-up horses in the straight.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Leader Wins
45% probability
If Amber Hamur gets easy fractions and kicks clear turning for home
The George Boughey runner controls the tempo completely and has enough in reserve to repel late challenges. Jack Callan can dictate when to inject pace and the hold-up brigade struggle to make up the ground in time.
Amber HamurAmazing AnitaApex StarPoetic Grace
B
Prominent Tracker Strikes
30% probability
If Amazing Anita or Apex Star can sit close enough to Amber Hamur without being trapped
The pace-setter weakens in the final furlong after doing too much alone, allowing a well-positioned prominent runner to strike. The hold-up horses still face too much traffic to be effective.
Amazing AnitaApex StarAmber HamurMusical Soldier
C
Hold-Up Horse Charges
15% probability
If the early pace is genuinely strong and Amber Hamur comes back to the field quickly
The front-runners collapse and a cleaner passage opens up for one of the many hold-up horses to deliver a telling late challenge. Musical Soldier with Hollie Doyle or Power Of Chora could benefit most.
Musical SoldierPower Of ChoraEvolveCastlekeely
D
Complete Pace Collapse
10% probability
If Amber Hamur goes off too fast early and the prominent horses also overrace
The entire pace-setting group weakens dramatically in the final quarter-mile, creating chaos and allowing a complete outsider from the back to sweep through. This would require serious tactical errors up front.
Bear StepsPink Diamond GirlEast India BreezeAmakhala
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Amber Hamur's early fractions are crucial - if Jack Callan goes too fast early the entire race complexion changes
WATCH
Amazing Anita's stall position when declared will determine if she can track the leader or gets caught wide
WATCH
Traffic problems in straight will be severe with 8+ hold-up horses converging - watch for clear runs
NOTE
Power Of Chora and Musical Soldier carry bottom weights but need everything to fall right from hold-up positions
NOTE
Apex Star's finishing kick last time suggests he could capitalize if positioned close enough to the pace
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5f · Standard · HCAP · 8 runners
Lismacbryan Hill likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Black Cab led; the map had Lismacbryan Hill in front.
Black Cab won at 10.00 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Lismacbryan Hill
Prominent · 2
Trust SergeiKento
Midfield · 3
Colors Of FreedomVault Of HeavenIsla Bella
Hold Up · 2
TomarloBlack Cab
Lismacbryan Hill will likely take this field along from the front, with Colors Of Freedom, Trust Sergei and Kento happy to sit prominently behind. The pace should be genuine but not frantic over this minimum trip, with the front runner getting an easy enough lead early. The hold-up horses Tomarlo, Vault Of Heaven, Isla Bella and Black Cab will need to rely on the pace collapsing or find gaps late. This race shape clearly favours the prominent runners who can track the leader and pounce late without getting too far back.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Runners Dominate
45% probability
If the early pace is genuine but not excessive allowing prominent runners to strike
Lismacbryan Hill sets up the race perfectly for those tracking just behind to come through in the final furlong. Colors Of Freedom, Trust Sergei and especially in-form Kento are ideally positioned to capitalise.
KentoColors Of FreedomTrust SergeiLismacbryan Hill
B
Front Runner Holds On
30% probability
If Lismacbryan Hill gets soft fractions early and kicks clear
The 139-day absence could actually help freshness and with Ray Dawson taking over, the front runner proves hard to peg back. Those tracking prominently like Kento still pose the main threat.
Lismacbryan HillKentoColors Of FreedomTrust Sergei
C
Late Surge From Back
15% probability
If the early pace is strong enough to set up the hold-up horses
The prominent pack goes too hard allowing Isla Bella or Black Cab to sweep through late with their finishing kicks. Recent third-place finisher Isla Bella particularly benefits from a strong gallop.
Isla BellaBlack CabKentoVault Of Heaven
D
Pace Collapses Completely
10% probability
If Lismacbryan Hill goes too slow and it becomes a sprint from the turn
The race becomes a pure speed test where natural pace horses can dominate from wherever they are positioned. This could allow any horse with tactical speed to win regardless of early position.
Trust SergeiBlack CabKentoColors Of Freedom
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Lismacbryan Hill breaking smartly is crucial as any hesitation will hand initiative to prominent pack
WATCH
Trust Sergei market moves given his disappointment as favourite last time despite being well-handicapped
NOTE
Kento and Rossa Ryan combination has strong strike rate and horse is clearly thriving in current conditions
WATCH
Black Cab gate speed is vital as slow start killed chances last time and 5f gives no recovery time
NOTE
Isla Bella benefiting from quick turnaround after decent effort eight days ago over course and distance
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6f · Standard · HCAP · 6 runners
Magna likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Magna and Moostar led, as the map showed.
Magna won at 5.00 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Magna
Prominent · 1
Moostar
Midfield · 2
Daytona LadyCourt Drive
Hold Up · 2
So SassySkellig Isle
Magna is the only confirmed front runner in this small field and should get an easy lead from the gates. With Moostar the only other prominent racer, Magna will face minimal early pressure and can dictate terms through moderate fractions. The four hold-up horses (So Sassy, Daytona Lady, Court Drive, Skellig Isle) will be bunched behind waiting to strike. This sustainable pace scenario strongly favours the front runner and prominent racers who can avoid the traffic that will inevitably develop when multiple hold-up horses try to weave through in the final two furlongs.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Magna Controls Throughout
45% probability
If Magna breaks cleanly and faces no early pressure from Moostar
She can string out the field with steady fractions and prove too tough to peg back when the hold-up brigade launches their challenge. Her recent C&D success and strong sprint form make her ideally suited to exploit this tactical advantage.
MagnaMoostarDaytona LadySo Sassy
B
Hold-Up Traffic Chaos
30% probability
If the four hold-up horses get shuffled back early and struggle for racing room
The sustained pace allows closers with clear runs to sweep past tired leaders in a messy finish. Court Drive and So Sassy have the class to capitalize if they avoid trouble.
So SassyCourt DriveDaytona LadySkellig Isle
C
Moostar Pressures Early
15% probability
If Moostar takes the fight to Magna from the start creating genuine pace
Both front runners could weaken late opening the door for the best closer to strike. Daytona Lady's recent C&D win gives her the edge in a speed-favoured scenario.
Daytona LadySkellig IsleSo SassyMagna
D
Pace Collapse Sprint
10% probability
If both Magna and Moostar go too conservatively creating crawling fractions
The race becomes a pure sprint from the three-furlong pole where natural speed trumps position. Fresh horses with tactical pace like Skellig Isle can exploit the sprint finish.
Skellig IsleMagnaMoostarDaytona Lady
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Magna breaks slowly or Moostar immediately challenges her - destroys the front runner's tactical advantage completely
WATCH
So Sassy gets trapped behind leaders turning for home - her sweeping style needs clear water to be effective
WATCH
Court Drive shows ring-rust early after 64-day absence - could compromise her finishing kick when race develops
NOTE
Daytona Lady settles too far back given small field size - may leave herself too much to do despite C&D form
NOTE
Multiple hold-up horses converge simultaneously in straight - creates interference and favours those with clear runs
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.