Archive›Worcester · 12 October 2026

Worcester

12 October 2026 · 7 races

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1:37 — Richard Davis Memorial Handicap Steeple Chase

2m4f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Calli Black likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Calli Black led, as the map showed.

Noble Recall won at 7.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

6 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Calli Black

Prominent · 3

OnehundredneightyRockvaleJimmyjeroo

Midfield · 3

Noble RecallBlack OccDisco Davis

Hold Up · 3

Love MeTom TagglePop's Folly

Calli Black is the most likely pace-setter from the off, but this is a field glutted with horses suited to prominent and forward racing — Disco Davis, Jimmyjeroo, Rockvale and Onehundredneighty all have that profile — and only one can occupy the lead. Calli Black will face genuine pressure if it gets there; Rockvale ran just 11 days ago and has won on this ground, while Jimmyjeroo has recent placed form at 2m4f on good going. If Calli Black sets an uncontested pace, the race will be run to suit front-runners, who have a strong record over this trip and going; but if the pace is contested early — which is the likeliest outcome given the number of forward types — the early tempo will tire the principals and benefit a horse that can stalk and strike in the final furlong. The field contains more pace than can all secure their natural position; Rockvale and Onehundredneighty are most likely to actually get prominent or lead-challenging roles.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Stalker picks up the pace

Scenario

If the early pace is vigorous but Calli Black and its principal rivals fade in the final two fences,

a horse that has raced in the midfield or second division will arrive fresh and strike decisively in the run-in. Noble Recall has won over this trip and distance on good going, handled 2m4f at Worcester three starts ago, and though it is the lowest-rated runner here, its placed form over hurdles and its recent mark of 1W2P on similar ground gives it the tactical advantage of racing off the pace while the front-runners deplete each other.

Noble RecallBlack OccTom Taggle

Rockvale leads and holds on

Scenario

If Rockvale, freshened by only 11 days away and effective on good going at this trip, can shake off Calli Black and seize the lead two out,

it will find a clear run and sufficient reserve to hold any challenger in the closing stages. Rockvale has won at 20f on good going and placed three times on similar ground; its recent form line of 2P4U31 suggests it has speed to burn and the jockey (Brendan Powell) is an experienced tactician.

RockvaleOnehundredneightyCalli Black

Onehundredneighty challenges late

Scenario

If Onehundredneighty, which won over 16f on good going and has placed on this trip, can sit third or fourth and quicken into the final furlong after the front-runners have softened,

it has the rating (92 OR, 86 RPR) and the recent form (35-421) to strike. Ben Pauling's yard is in moderate form over the past fortnight, and the horse hasn't run since 17 days ago, so freshness is on its side.

OnehundredneightyNoble RecallRockvale

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Rockvale has only 11 days between runs and has pulled hard recently — watch whether it needs that gallop or whether it finds another gear to lead and hold on.

WATCH

If Calli Black gets an uncontested lead and the pace is genuinely slow, front-runners have a strong record here and the race shape changes in its favour; but this field is too deep in pace for that to happen.

NOTE

Noble Recall's placed record (1W2P) on this ground and trip is better than its official rating suggests; monitor its position jumping the second-last and whether it has room and momentum to accelerate.

NOTE

Onehundredneighty is 92 on the official ratings but only 86 on Racing Post Rating; the gap hints at doubt about its consistency, so watch how it settles in midfield before committing money.

2:07 — CopyBet For Champions League Profit Boosts Handicap Steeple Chase

2m7f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Saint Arion likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Ballynaheer led; the map had Saint Arion in front.

Billy Boi Blue won at 5.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

6 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Saint Arion

Prominent · 3

BallynaheerValirann GoldRidin Solo

Midfield · 2

BalkardyBilly Boi Blue

Hold Up · 4

Washington ParksPawpawMoonlightintheparkSonyourastar

Saint Arion has led in only 2 of its last 5 runs and will be ridden positively by a forward-thinking jockey, but is not an established front-runner; it raced prominently last time and may set or contest the pace early. Ballynaheer (3 wins from 9 runs on good going at this trip) is the most consistent racer on the card and will likely race up with or just behind Saint Arion, while Ridin Solo and Valirann Gold may press forward to contest the early tempo. The pace will be steadied rather than hotly contested, creating a stiff test in the middle and closing phases. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip here, but midfield runners have also performed well; a field with limited confirmed pace-setters favours a stalker or midfield racer that can pick up the pieces when the early runners tire, rather than one that relies on an uncontested lead.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Midfield stalker picks up

Scenario

If Billy Boi Blue settles in mid-division and finds room in the closing stages despite its tendency to fade

Billy Boi Blue is the highest-rated horse in the field (RPR 120) and has won on this course and trip; a moderate pace allows it to conserve energy and strike late, where its superior class can overcome the warning signs in its recent form. Ballynaheer and Sonyourastar will make the running or race keenly up front, tiring gradually as the fences come, and Boi Blue's recent six-race sequence shows enough fight to suggest the fade is not terminal.

Billy Boi BlueBallynaheerSonyourastar

Ballynaheer leads home

Scenario

If Ballynaheer dictates from an early stage and uses its perfect good-going record (3 wins from 9 runs) to control the race

Ballynaheer has won twice over this trip in the past two seasons and is well-suited to Worcester's demands on decent ground; if it can hold sway from the start, its OR 105 and proven stamina leave it well-placed to fend off late challengers in the closing furlong. Saint Arion and Ridin Solo will fight for position early but neither has the consistency on this ground to match Ballynaheer's record.

BallynaheerSaint ArionRidin Solo

Saint Arion leads and holds

Scenario

If Saint Arion gets a clear lead early and the field fails to mount a serious challenge in the straight

Saint Arion's last run saw it race prominently and there is enough form to suggest it could steal a march, particularly if Ballynaheer is restrained or stumbles; the OR 97 is modest in this field, however, and a front-running bias would need the pace to truly collapse for a horse of its rating to hold a quality closer at bay. Billy Boi Blue and Ballynaheer are stronger on the cards and would be expected to reel it in if given time.

Saint ArionBallynaheerBilly Boi Blue

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Billy Boi Blue's recent fade in finishes is a warning flag against holding on over the final furlong; if it settles poorly or the pace quickens too early, it may have nothing left in the straight despite its superior rating.

WATCH

Washington Parks has not raced for nearly six months; if it runs, expect rustiness and use its first-time-out status as a strong filter against its chances.

NOTE

Ballynaheer's perfect record on good ground at this trip (3 wins in 9 runs) gives it a statistical edge that outweighs its mid-pack rating; it will be worth monitoring if odds drift at the off.

WATCH

Saint Arion's tendency to race prominently rather than lead cleanly may invite Ballynaheer or Ridin Solo to test it early; if it surrenders the initiative in the first half, its chance collapses.

2:37 — CopyBet Follow Us On X Handicap Steeple Chase

2m½f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Ballyhiho likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Away For The Night and Most Wanted led; the map had Ballyhiho in front.

Away For The Night won at 2.88 — led, where the map had it raced midfield.

5 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Ballyhiho

Prominent · 2

Double IndemnityZero Tolerance

Midfield · 4

Away For The NightL'Empire VertKally des BruyeresDynamite Defense

Hold Up · 2

GaleforcechopperMost Wanted

Ballyhiho led in four of its last five runs and is the clear pace-setter here, but this field contains more front-running and prominent types than can all occupy those positions — L'Empire Vert, Kally des Bruyeres and Dynamite Defense are genuine pace horses squeezed back in the order because Ballyhiho and Double Indemnity will fight for the lead. The race will likely unfold as a contested early gallop that sorts itself into a genuine pace battle; if Ballyhiho gets away and holds the rail, the uncontested lead scenario falls away quickly. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and ground here, but the speed in this field is genuine and distributed across multiple runners, so the lead will be contested and the early pace honest. A stalker or midfield runner positioned to pick up the pieces when the front-runners fade in the closing two furlongs holds the tactical advantage.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Stalker takes it late

Scenario

If Ballyhiho and Double Indemnity fight out an honest pace and weaken in the closing furlong

Galeforcechopper has won three of its last six runs over this course and ground, including a recent victory here; it is a seasoned hold-up horse that will be buried in midfield early and produced to strike as the pace collapses. The front-runners will have done their work and tire; Galeforcechopper's natural hold-up style suits this race shape perfectly and the form reads ideally for a late arrival.

GaleforcechopperAway For The NightZero Tolerance

Ballyhiho holds on grimly

Scenario

If Ballyhiho settles and controls the race from the front without real pressure

Ballyhiho led in four of its last five runs and will jump off to take the lead; if Double Indemnity fails to press it hard through the middle stages, Ballyhiho can steal it on the bridle and hold on despite the testing ground. Led last time and has won three of five runs on good ground, so precedent favours a frontrunning horse that finds the line.

BallyhihoL'Empire VertKally des Bruyeres

Chaser beats the pace

Scenario

If Double Indemnity challenges Ballyhiho early and the pair run a protracted duel

Double Indemnity has won zero races from four starts on good ground despite solid form, but is well treated on official ratings and could snatch it in the closing stages if the pair ahead weaken together. This requires Double Indemnity to run better than its record suggests and for neither Galeforcechopper nor the hold-up types to land a decisive blow.

Double IndemnityZero ToleranceAway For The Night

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Galeforcechopper is 11lb clear of Ballyhiho on official ratings and holds the course form advantage — expect it to be produced late and pushed hard in the closing furlong.|warn|L'Empire Vert and Kally des Bruyeres are true prominent racers squeezed into midfield; if either breaks through the early pace battle and takes a forward position, their chances rise sharply.|info|Ballyhiho has not raced in 140 days — first-run freshness combined with a contested early pace could catch it out, though the led-last-time form and yard record favour a quick reacclimation.|info|Worcester jumpers on good ground reward honest early pace — watch whether Double Indemnity pressures Ballyhiho into a truly searching gallop or settles behind and gambles on the closers tiring.|warn|Away For The Night's form dip (7th last time) was on soft ground; the return to good here and the course form are both positive, but the 160-day absence is longer than any other runner's and raises a match-fitness risk.

3:07 — Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Novices' Steeple Chase (GBB Race)

2m7f · Good · NOV · 4 runners

Potters Charm likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Potters Charm led, as the map showed.

Potters Charm won at 1.20 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Potters Charm

Prominent · 1

Glen To Glen

Midfield · 1

Vicomte Le Brave

Hold Up · 1

Jupiter des Mottes

Potters Charm is the likeliest to set the pace, having led in three of its last six runs and most recently when last sighted 186 days ago; the Twiston-Davies yard and jockey Sam Twiston-Davies favour going forward. With only four runners and no confirmed challenger for the lead, the race should unfold as an uncontested pace if Potters Charm jumps off in front. Glen To Glen has won over this trip on good ground and races prominently, but is out of form (last run nine days ago was a refusal); Jupiter des Mottes is a hold-up horse; Vicomte Le Brave is lightly raced and untested. Front-runners hold a strong record over this distance and going here, and if Potters Charm leads unchallenged, that profile will benefit — but a long absence (186 days) and the horse's tendency to race out of its natural position carry risk.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Potters Charm makes and holds

Scenario

If Potters Charm jumps off and settles in front without serious pressure up the back.

The uncontested pace allows Potters Charm to dictate; front-runners have proven strong over 2m7f on good ground here, and the absence of a genuine pace rival means any challenger must beat a horse already in control. Potters Charm has the highest official rating (153) and can be trusted to see out the trip from the front.

Potters CharmGlen To GlenJupiter des Mottes

Glen To Glen runs on late

Scenario

If Potters Charm cannot quicken after 186 days away, or if the pace collapses in the closing stages.

Glen To Glen, out of immediate form but a proven winner over this distance on good ground, is best placed to pick up the pieces as a prominent racer; it needs the race to unfold slowly enough to recover from a sluggish middle. Jupiter des Mottes, a hold-up horse with winning form on good ground, also has a route to the front if the pace dies.

Glen To GlenJupiter des MottesPotters Charm

Jupiter des Mottes arrives late

Scenario

If both front-runners fade and the race develops into a genuine test of stamina in the final mile.

Jupiter des Mottes has winning form on good ground and is the true hold-up horse; it can take advantage if Potters Charm's long absence tells and Glen To Glen's recent refusal undermines its confidence. The scenario requires a breakdown in pace midway, but Jupiter des Mottes has both form and the running style to exploit it.

Jupiter des MottesPotters CharmGlen To Glen

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Potters Charm's 186-day absence is severe for a novice steeplechase; if the layoff has blunted its sharpness, the lead will become vulnerable in the final furlong despite the highest rating.

WATCH

Glen To Glen's refusal nine days ago suggests either physical or mental unreadiness; if confidence has not returned, its good-ground form counts for little.

NOTE

Jupiter des Mottes' hold-up profile only works if the pace is honest; with Potters Charm likely to lead unchallenged, this horse may struggle to get into the race at all.

NOTE

Vicomte Le Brave is an unknown quantity over both the distance and the going; any market drift should reflect that lack of evidence rather than genuine value.

3:37 — FBC Manby Bowdler Mares' Handicap Steeple Chase (Challenger Mares' Chase Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)

2m4f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Princess Keri to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Mighty Fleur and Broomfield Aderra led; the map had Princess Keri in front.

Mighty Fleur won at 2.50 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Princess Keri

Prominent · 3

Annie ExpressMighty FleurSweet Caryline

Midfield · 2

La MarquiseBroomfield Aderra

Hold Up · 2

Best WomenRealisation

Princess Keri is the only confirmed front-runner in this field, having led in five of its last six runs and setting the pace most recently. The mare will be allowed an uncontested lead unless one of the prominent types — Mighty Fleur, Sweet Caryline, Annie Express or Broomfield Aderra — decides to press her early, but none of these horses has a clear record of hunting down leaders at this trip. This gives Princess Keri a genuine chance to control the tempo and dictate the race from the front. Front-runners have a strong record at Worcester over 2m4f on good ground, winning well above the statistical baseline, which suits a scenario where Princess Keri gets away safely and holds off any late charge; however, the field contains genuine prominent racers forced into midfield or hold-up positions because there is not enough room for all of them in their natural slots, and this crowding may create opportunities for horses that can pick their moment rather than fight for position early.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Princess Keri holds front

Scenario

If Princess Keri jumps well and sets a steady, uncontested pace from the start.

She has led in five of six recent runs and the field lacks a willing challenger to take her on early; the uncontested lead allows her to conserve energy and kick away before the second-last. Front-runners perform well over this trip and ground, and Princess Keri's recent consistency in front is hard to ignore despite her modest official rating.

Princess KeriMighty FleurSweet Caryline

Midfield racer emerges late

Scenario

If one of the prominent types — Mighty Fleur or Sweet Caryline — settles in the middle order and has enough left to pick up a tiring Princess Keri in the run-in.

Mighty Fleur has won on good ground at this course and trip, and has placed four times in five runs on similar terrain; she and Sweet Caryline are materially better horses on official ratings than Princess Keri and have both shown class over middle distances on firm ground. If they avoid early scraps for position and conserve energy, they can strike when Princess Keri fades.

Mighty FleurSweet CarylineBroomfield Aderra

Resurgent hold-up horse profits

Scenario

If the pace collapses early and Realisation or Best Women, both unsuited to racing from behind but trapped there by the field shape, slip through in the final furlong.

Realisation won on good ground at this course over 2m4f and has an excellent record on suitable ground (won one, placed four of six runs); Best Women won on good ground at this trip and has raced keenly recently, suggesting eagerness to move up if given the opportunity. This scenario requires the pace to fall apart and one of these horses to escape their unfavourable position.

RealisationBest WomenLa Marquise

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Mighty Fleur has superior form and class to Princess Keri; if she settles in midfield and hits the front in the final furlong, she is the horse most likely to pass the leader.

WATCH

Princess Keri has not raced for 177 days: despite her record in front, nearly six months off is a significant concern at her modest rating in a field with several horses rated 10 to 17 pounds higher.

NOTE

Best Women and Realisation are both unsuited to racing from behind, and will need an obliging pace or a midfield meltdown to overcome the tactical disadvantage of their map positions.

NOTE

Broomfield Aderra's winning form on good ground at Worcester is authentic, but she may be carried back by a heavier pace scenario than her natural position allows, making her vulnerable if she cannot get a clear run.

4:07 — PJ Nicholls KGM Korea Genuinely Made Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)

2m½f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners

Siam Park likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Siam Park led, as the map showed.

Kykorock won at 4.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Siam Park

Prominent · 1

Park Annonciade

Midfield · 1

Jasmin de Cotte

Hold Up · 3

AuthocelticKykorockTour Ovalie

Siam Park is the likeliest to set the pace, though it has led in only 2 of its last 6 runs and arrives here held up last time—the yard and Powell tend to go forward, but this is not a confirmed front-runner. The field lacks obvious speed to press it, so if Siam Park gets there the pace should be uncontested and honest. Front-runners have a strong record over this 2½f trip at Worcester on good ground, but the real danger lies in the hold-up horses—Kykorock, Tour Ovalie and Authoceltic—who can exploit a steady gallop and arrive fresh. A contested but not brutal pace favours closers; a soft early tempo favours those who can track and pounce.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Closer picks off honest pace

Scenario

If Siam Park leads without real pressure from the field, allowing the hold-up brigade to conserve energy and strike late.

Kykorock has won 3 of 6 on good ground, carries a 9/53 strike rate for Dan Skelton this season, and its form around this track and trip suits a waiting brief; the closers will have the last word over a steady gallop. Authoceltic and Tour Ovalie play secondary roles chasing home.

KykorockAuthocelticTour Ovalie

Front-runner holds sway

Scenario

If Siam Park sets a truly honest gallop from the off and the field lacks the speed or tactics to exploit it.

Siam Park has won 1 of 10 on similar ground and finished placed in 5 of those; the front-running profile suits this trip. Park Annonciade, a prominent racer, may press early but lacks the RPR edge to win a run-out.

Siam ParkPark Annonciade

Prominent stalker lands blow

Scenario

If Park Annonciade or another early racer takes closer order and the field fractures into a more contest affair.

Park Annonciade has won on this ground (1 of 7 on good turf, placed in 3), but carries a 0/3 strike for the yard in 14 days and is 149 days since last run—ring rust and tactical inexperience rule against it in a sharp affair. Siam Park could still finish second.

Park AnnonciadeSiam Park

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Kykorock has won on good ground and is in prime form for the yard; if Siam Park leads without a real tow, it will arrive too fresh.

NOTE

Siam Park has not led successfully over this distance recently and is not a confirmed front-runner; expect a passive, honest-paced race if it gets there.

WATCH

Park Annonciade is 149 days off the track and may lack the sharpness to dictate or even kick on when the field quickens; use caution.

4:37 — CopyBet Overnight Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)

2m7f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Sunshine Diamond likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Muskoka led; the map had Sunshine Diamond in front.

Big Cadillac won at 3.25 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Sunshine Diamond

Prominent · 2

Jiair MadrikMuskoka

Midfield · 2

Island BridgeHappy And Fine

Hold Up · 3

Big CadillacAxel BleueTop Guy

Sunshine Diamond is the likeliest to lead from the off, having led in three of its last four runs, but the pace should unfold contested rather than runaway because Happy And Fine and Muskoka are genuine prominent types who will press hard for position. The field contains more front-running and prominent runners than can all settle in their natural roles—Happy And Fine and Muskoka are most likely to secure a forward berth despite the pace already being well-populated. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and going here, but so do horses racing in midfield, which suggests this race will be decided less by who sets the pace than by how well a horse jumps and handles the closing stages; the uncontested gallop Sunshine Diamond would deliver is unlikely, and any horse that gets the lead will face pressure.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Jiair Madrik closes late

Scenario

If the early pace is genuinely contested and the field spreads across the track through the middle miles.

Jiair Madrik has won three times over this trip on good ground and shaped well when winning last time out at 20 furlongs; it will track the principals from midfield and strike in the run-in when the early pace-setters tire. This is a handicap where the outstanding form figure—Jiair Madrik's three wins over the trip and going—matters more than positional advantage.

Jiair MadrikAxel BleueSunshine Diamond

Axel Bleue holds on

Scenario

If Axel Bleue can land an early blow and defend from the front.

Axel Bleue has won twice and placed six times over this distance on good ground, and its recent form (third, first, second, first, third) shows tactical flexibility and jumping consistency; ridden positively from the start by James Bowen, it could set up a test that no other horse in this field can answer. It races out of its natural hold-up position, but the strength of its course and going record overrides that concern.

Axel BleueSunshine DiamondTop Guy

Sunshine Diamond leads throughout

Scenario

If Happy And Fine and Muskoka fail to press the pace and Sunshine Diamond jumps fluently from fence to fence.

Sunshine Diamond led last time and has the form to carry that advantage, but it will face constant pressure from horses better suited to a forward gallop and will need to jump very cleanly; its recent form (second, fourth, second, second) offers no guarantee it can fend off a closer with a superior record over the trip. The profile suits it only if rival prominent types underperform.

Sunshine DiamondHappy And FineIsland Bridge

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Jiair Madrik has the form record over this trip and going that stands above all rivals; if the pace collapses or becomes genuinely honest it will be placed to arrive with a telling run.

WATCH

Happy And Fine was last seen 184 days ago and is held back by both ring rust and the crowded early pace it will have to navigate; it may not get a clear run at its target ground.

NOTE

Axel Bleue's excellent record at Worcester over this distance on good ground (8 from 10) masks that it is being asked to lead or press early, contrary to its hold-up pedigree; monitor how it settles in the early fences.

NOTE

Muskoka shows win form over the trip and ground but last raced 194 days ago; trainer Emma Lavelle is in form, but the long absence is material in a staying chase where jumping fluency early pays.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 12 October 2026.

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