Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
2:24 — British Ebf Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)
1m2f · Soft · NOV · 10 runners
Quintillion likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Able Tasman led; the map had Quintillion in front.
Quintillion won at 4.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Quintillion
Prominent · 1
Able Tasman
Midfield · 4
Good JobSpong HillGilder RoyDeira Moon
Hold Up · 4
KirilSa LlagostaLaurigerStatus Symbol
Quintillion led last time and is the likeliest to go forward, but the pace should be uncontested if it gets there—this field holds genuine hold-up types (Deira Moon, Gilder Roy, Status Symbol, Lauriger, Kiril, Sa Llagosta) who will need to race prominently to take their natural positions, which means more forward pace than usual will contest the early running. Able Tasman, a prominent racer with a win at 8f and third at 7f on good ground, sits well to stalk or challenge early pace. The unraced horses Good Job and Spong Hill add uncertainty. Over 1m2f on soft ground at Yarmouth, front-runners have a strong record, but this shape—contested early pace with genuine closers held up at the back—will likely produce a stalker or prominent racer picking them up, not a runaway leader. Any horse that can settle in the first three and make a telling move from halfway gains the advantage.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Able Tasman stalks and strikes
Scenario
If Quintillion sets an honest pace and Able Tasman settles in touch, stalking into a strong position two furlongs out.
Able Tasman's form (won 8f good, third 7f good) and prominent style suit soft ground and this trip; it will have cover from Quintillion's pace and the running room to challenge. Placed runners in the first two outings show it has learned to travel and pick its moment.
Able TasmanQuintillionDeira Moon
B
Quintillion holds on from the front
Scenario
If Quintillion breaks well, Callum Shepherd asks it to lead and no other horse can mount a sustained challenge through the final furlong.
Quintillion led last time and the uncontested pace may allow it to control the race; however, racing out of its natural role as a prominent type rather than a confirmed front-runner weakens its hold, and soft ground over 1m2f typically favours runners arriving fresh, not those leading throughout.
QuintillionAble TasmanDeira Moon
C
Deira Moon unleashes a late run
Scenario
If the pace collapses early, Deira Moon settles well off the pace and delivers a powerful finishing flourish in the final two furlongs.
A true hold-up horse with back-to-back seconds on good ground over 10f and 8f, Deira Moon has the pedigree to strike late; however, soft ground over 1m2f does not historically reward closers as strongly, and it will need the early pace to fold completely, an unlikely outcome with at least one genuine front-runner engaged.
Deira MoonGilder RoyLauriger
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Able Tasman has winning form at 8f on good ground and the tactical setup of this race—honest early pace, genuine closers bunched behind—plays directly to its strengths as a stalker.
WATCH
Quintillion led last time but is expected to race positively rather than marked as a confirmed front-runner; if Shepherd can't make the pace stick, it will be vulnerable to the runners arriving fresh.
NOTE
Good Job and Spong Hill are unraced or lightly exposed; if either has sharp natural ability, the uncontested pace early may suit it far more than more experienced rivals expecting a stronger test.
NOTE
Gilder Roy and Sa Llagosta both fade in the finish; a strongly-run mile and a quarter on soft ground will make that tendency worse, not better.
2:54 — Aks Skip Hire Services Handicap Stakes
1m3½f · Soft · HCAP · 12 runners
Pace Attack likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Lavender Gold led; the map had Pace Attack in front.
Calchas won at 13.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Pace Attack
Prominent · 4
Willow WoodMadjidYokohamaLavender Gold
Midfield · 3
Pure MoonAstracornusCalchas
Hold Up · 4
Arthur's RealmPershallaHamdaniaNewtown Duke
Pace Attack is the only horse shown with a genuine lead habit—it led in 2 of its last 6 runs and was ridden forward last time—but the yard and rider tend to press rather than dominate, so the pace should settle if it gets there. However, this field holds multiple prominent types (Lavender Gold, Yokohama, Willow Wood, Madjid, and Calchas) who will be ridden positively; Calchas in particular is a natural pace-setter displaced here because the race contains more front-running threats than can all find that position. The race will be run from the front, but with genuine contestation: the likeliest scenario is a battle between two or three pace-makers turning in, which will hollow out those pressed early and leave the race open for a stalker to pick up the pieces on the softer ground. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and going, but only when they get truly clear; a contested pace that doesn't collapse favours a prominent racer or stalker ready to pounce in the final furlong.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Stalker runs down fading leaders
Scenario
If the early pace is hotly contested between Pace Attack and two or three of the prominent types, and none can shake loose by two out.
Yokohama and Willow Wood will strip the pace-makers, and a settled stalker arriving fresh in the straight will pick them off. Pure Moon, placed midfield with form and a soft-ground win, or Lavender Gold if she can hold her position without burning energy, are best positioned to profit from a war of attrition up front.
Pure MoonLavender GoldYokohamaWillow Wood
B
Prominent racer presses and holds on
Scenario
If Pace Attack and one of the stronger prominent types (Yokohama or Lavender Gold) settle into a manageable duel and neither gets overhauled entering the straight.
A controlled pace-battle will suit a seasoned prominent racer better than a sprint finish; Yokohama has won twice on this going and is 11lb better off the handicap than Pure Moon, and will be ridden by a jockey comfortable in a fight. Lavender Gold, with a recent win on soft and tactical nous, is an alternative if she can travel sweetly and time her run.
YokohamaLavender GoldPace Attack
C
Calchas and pace collapse
Scenario
If Calchas breaks well, none of the other prominent types press hard early, and the pace falls away entirely in the middle stages.
Calchas is a confirmed pace-setter racing out of its natural position here and would face a serious tactical disadvantage in a hot race; it wins only if the field fails to contest the early running and it can steal a quiet lead. This is the weakest scenario for the field's best horses but would hand the race to a horse that cannot win in the other two shapes.
CalchasPace AttackHamdania
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Yokohama has the highest official rating (85), soft-ground form, and a prominent-racer profile that will carry it into the fight early; if the pace settles into a two-horse war, it is best placed to control or finish second and then pick up the pieces.
WATCH
Calchas is racing out of position (a natural prominent type shown in midfield) and will struggle to achieve its running style in a hot pace; it has little form to justify its chance and is a trap if the race contests early.
NOTE
The three-pound claim for Jack Dace on Lavender Gold is meaningful in a tight handicap; it gives her a real tactical advantage and lowers her in the weights relative to front-runners Pace Attack and Madjid.
NOTE
Pure Moon's draw (12) is neutral but it will race last in the early stages; if Yokohama or Lavender Gold runs a strong gallop to turn in, Pure Moon will have clear running into the final furlong and is well enough treated on official ratings to take advantage.
KEY
A soft-ground bias on the day will favour Lavender Gold, Yokohama, and Willow Wood, all of whom have recent wins or placings on this surface; Pure Moon has only one placing on soft-ground form and may lack the necessary match fitness.
3:24 — Pro Shop At Caister Golf Club Handicap Stakes
1m6f · Soft · HCAP · 13 runners
Fletcher likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Betelgeuse led; the map had Fletcher in front.
Sullom Voe won at 34.00 — was held up, as the map had it.
3 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Fletcher
Prominent · 4
Big WinDarkest RedFeelin' FreeTrapper John
Midfield · 2
Atalanta MistMuch
Hold Up · 6
BetelgeuseExpressionlessJack LangleyFive MoonsDust CoverSullom Voe
Fletcher will likely head to the front and set an uncontested pace, having led in 2 of its last 6 runs and last time out; with no other confirmed front-runner in the field, the race should develop as a test of stamina on soft ground at 1m6f rather than a contested tempo battle. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and going, winning well above the odds-on rate, which favours a horse that can dictate from the lead rather than one that needs to come from behind. Fletcher races out of role at this level—a 3-year-old rated just 47 carrying 117lb against horses rated 56–75—and the field contains several hold-up types forced into midfield positions because there is no room for them to operate naturally at the rear; that congestion may create a chaotic mid-race but will not help a weak front-runner hold on. The most likely winner will be a horse good enough to track or overtake Fletcher from a prominent or stalking position and finish strongest on the testing ground.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent raider picks up Fletcher
Scenario
If one of the genuine prominent types—Big Win, Feelin' Free or Darkest Red—settles close enough to track Fletcher without getting sucked into a premature duel
Fletcher will set a steady pace on the soft ground, but the race is built for a stronger horse to stalk and outfinish him in the closing stages. Feelin' Free has won twice on soft over 11f–14f, Darkest Red has two placed finishes on soft and rates higher, and both are trained to be competitive right now.
Feelin' FreeBig WinDarkest Red
B
Expressionless late flourish
Scenario
If Expressionless, already at 75 RPR and a winning form horse on good to soft ground, can settle in the middle of the field and find a clear run in the final furlong
Expressionless has won on similar ground and carries only 133lb; the soft surface is no concern and the extra half-mile is within reach of a horse whose last five runs show genuine form. Fletcher's weakness up front clears the way for a closer with genuine ammunition.
ExpressionlessFeelin' FreeDarkest Red
C
Hold-up horse reaches full potential
Scenario
If dust or firmness favours a hold-up type and Much or Jack Langley can exploit the congestion at the rear of a weaker-paced race
Much and Jack Langley are both rated higher than Fletcher but will struggle to get home from a true hold-up position over this distance and ground after long layoffs; this depends on the pace collapsing entirely. Neither is as well placed as the prominent types to finish strongest.
MuchJack LangleyExpressionless
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Feelin' Free pulled hard 21 days ago but is a genuine winning threat on soft ground at this trip; watch for a prominent position from early and whether Kieran Shoemark settles him or lets the soft ground do the work.
WATCH
Much is a much better horse than Fletcher but will race out of role in midfield; if the field fractures or pace fails early, this strong performer cannot get back, and the redistribution will cost a genuine contender.
NOTE
The soft going and 1m6f distance favour front-runners on the record, but only if the leader is strong enough; Fletcher's rating of 47 is the race's weakest link, and any prominent horse tracking him properly will outfinish him.
NOTE
Jack Langley and Betelgeuse have good-ground form at 16f but a combined 2 wins from 26 soft-ground runs; monitor whether the track plays any faster than returned and whether Yarmouth's soft readings favour hold-up racing today.
3:54 — Quinnbet Handicap Stakes
5f · Soft · HCAP · 7 runners
Sam's Xpress to leadHISTORICDraw: L · STRONG
How it ran
Sam's Xpress led, as the map showed.
Sunlit Sea won at 7.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it.
5 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Sam's Xpress
Prominent · 3
Isle of LismoreSunlit SeaDottie Diamond
Midfield · 0
None
Hold Up · 3
Zoustar DreamsKoffee And KaleEm Jay Kay
Sam's Xpress is the only confirmed front-runner in this seven-strong field, having led in 4 of its last 6 runs, but it carries a significant concern: it fades badly in the finish and has no wins from 14 starts on soft ground. Dottie Diamond and Isle of Lismore will race prominently, while the remainder — Zoustar Dreams, Koffee And Kale and Em Jay Kay — are hold-up types. If Sam's Xpress gets the lead, the pace will be uncontested and moderate; it will likely set a dawdle that invites closers to pick it off late. Front-runners have a strong record here, but only when they hold on; front-runners that fade are vulnerable to horses racing behind who still have a turn of foot. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses with turn of foot arriving late, particularly those well handicapped and unexposed to this trip.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Closer runs down tiring leader
Scenario
If Sam's Xpress leads but cannot sustain the pace in the final furlong, and Zoustar Dreams or Koffee And Kale time their challenge to arrive late.
Sam's Xpress will likely make the lead but fade from two furlongs out; Zoustar Dreams, rated just 3lb above it and with a recent winning record at 5f, or Koffee And Kale, winner of 1 from 12 but placed twice and freshly raced just 7 days ago, will have too much left in the tank. This is the most likely winning profile because Sam's Xpress has no winning form on soft ground and has faded in most recent starts, while both closers are younger, better handicapped on recent effort and proven at this trip on similar going.
Zoustar DreamsKoffee And KaleIsle of Lismore
B
Prominent racer holds sway
Scenario
If Dottie Diamond or Isle of Lismore can get a pitch close enough to the leader to challenge and hold on through the final furlong without needing to come from behind.
Dottie Diamond won twice at 5f on soft ground in its last three runs and races well within its rating (OR 65, RPR 66) when fresh; Isle of Lismore has placed in 3 of 6 on soft going and drew the inside rail in a field that favours left. Either could sit handy to Sam's Xpress and pick it up in a way that a dedicated hold-up horse cannot, especially if the pace remains moderate. This shape relies on one of them getting good ground and judging it perfectly, which is less certain than a tired leader being caught.
Dottie DiamondSunlit SeaSam's Xpress
C
Lone frontrunner defies form
Scenario
If Sam's Xpress manages to quicken in the final furlong despite its recent habit of fading and despite having no wins on soft ground in 14 attempts.
Sam's Xpress would need to overcome its own record and the handicapper's 57 OR rating, the lowest in the field, to hold on. This contradicts both its recent evidence and the strong record of closers at this trip and course, making it an outlier outcome that would require a complete reversal of form.
Sam's XpressDottie DiamondSunlit Sea
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Sam's Xpress will almost certainly lead but rarely holds on; watch for Zoustar Dreams or Koffee And Kale arriving with a finishing kick in the final furlong.
WATCH
Isle of Lismore's 18-day absence and age (8) mean it may not have the zip to challenge if the pace remains dawdling.
NOTE
The left draw is favoured at Yarmouth over 5f — Isle of Lismore and Zoustar Dreams benefit most.
NOTE
Sunlit Sea has not raced in 56 days and soft ground is not part of its recent profile; monitor any betting moves that suggest it has been readied for this surface.
KEY
Dottie Diamond's recent habit of pulling hard suggests it may not settle in its desired spot early and could compromise its finishing kick.
4:24 — First Furnishings Handicap Stakes
6f · Soft · HCAP · 13 runners
Splash likeliest to leadHISTORICDraw: L · STRONG
How it ran
Izzy Fast led; the map had Splash in front.
Izzy Fast won at 12.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently.
3 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Splash
Prominent · 3
MethgalIzzy FastRaffles Angel
Midfield · 4
So SassyFirst FolioKimbaraDark Side Thunder
Hold Up · 5
RibenskaFranticStartled LadyGood EarthDeluded
Splash is the only confirmed front-runner in this field, having led in five of its last six runs, but the yard has just one run in 14 days and the horse races out of its natural position here—a concerning mismatch that makes an uncontested lead unlikely to materialise. Raffles Angel, Methgal and Izzy Fast will race prominently and are far more likely to contest the early pace; if any of them assert themselves, the tempo will be harder and the race will be run at a speed that front-runners have historically exploited well at Yarmouth over this trip and ground. Hold-up horses have a poor record here and the draw favours the left side, which benefits the prominent and midfield runners in lower numbers. The race profile strongly suits horses that can race prominently or on the pace; a slow, uncontested lead benefits no one.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Raffles Angel presses and holds
Scenario
If Raffles Angel and Methgal fight out the early pace and establish a contested tempo.
Raffles Angel has won twice recently and handles this ground and trip; a proper early contest will suit its bold profile and the horse is well enough in the weights to hold on. The Fanshawe runner So Sassy, drawn 1, will chase the leaders and has won at this track, but needs the pace honest to stay on. Raffles Angel's recent form and willingness to race prominently give it the edge.
Raffles AngelSo SassyMethgal
B
Good Earth steals it late
Scenario
If the early pace proves patchy and good positions are available through the middle stages.
Good Earth, the Strand pick and a 9-year-old with consistent form, is drawn perfectly on 4 and can settle, track the action from midfield, and pick off tiring rivals in the closing stages—a route that suits hold-up types when the tempo is weak. The handicapper has placed it well on 73, only 2lb below Raffles Angel despite race fitness (won 26 days ago) and a proven record here.
Good EarthSo SassyFrantic
C
Methgal gets there from behind
Scenario
If early pressure eases and a midfield group sorts out the race late.
Methgal is only 13 days since its last run and has won three times on this ground in five attempts; it can race prominently or midfield and, though drawn against the bias at 13, is the form horse on the day and will not lack for cover. This needs a collapse in the early pace and the race to stay open through the middle—unlikely but Methgal's recent record and soft-ground form justify the chance.
MethgalRaffles AngelKimbara
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Raffles Angel pulled hard in recent races and may use up energy early; if Methgal or Izzy Fast challenge it hard, the top pick could fade late.
WATCH
Good Earth's hold-up style relies on a slow pace; if Splash and Raffles Angel establish genuine tempo, the Strand pick may be caught too far back to recover.
NOTE
So Sassy has won twice at Yarmouth but lacks form markers this season; watch whether the Fanshawe yard's recent 5-win spurt (13 runs) translates to a genuine improvement here.
NOTE
The left-side draw strongly favours So Sassy, Good Earth and Startled Lady; Izzy Fast and Methgal, drawn at 12 and 13, will start the race at a tactical disadvantage.
4:55 — Moulton Racing Club Handicap Stakes
1m · Soft · HCAP · 12 runners
Aspull likeliest to leadHISTORICDraw: L · SLIGHT
How it ran
Aspull led, as the map showed.
Potters Prince won at 3.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.
4 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Aspull
Prominent · 3
Abu RoyalStar SuepremeDiamond Ali
Midfield · 3
AstronomicaPotters PrinceDesert Charm
Hold Up · 5
MerapiEcho ThatHeer's SadieRomantic TwilightLiving In Hope
Aspull is the only horse with a clear recent record of taking the lead — it led last time out — and should dictate early if allowed. The pace will be uncontested through the middle stages, building in the closing furlong as hold-up horses arrive. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip here, winning well above par, but Aspull races out of its natural role as a prominent type forced into the lead; this shape is unlikely to be the likeliest. Potters Prince and Desert Charm are natural hold-up runners shown deeper in the market prediction, meaning several horses will be fighting for position in a constrained field. The winner will come from a shape where an honest pace allows late runners room to pick up the pieces, or where a horse with tactical flexibility can turn a modest lead into something won.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Closer arrives late
Scenario
If the early pace remains steady and Aspull holds on through the straight without assertion.
Hold-up runners will enjoy an honest gallop and room to improve at the furlong marker. Merapi, Potters Prince and Desert Charm have all won or placed over this trip and ground; one of these profiles will suit better than chasing a horse racing out of position.
MerapiPotters PrinceDesert Charm
B
Aspull leads and holds
Scenario
If Aspull gets away cleanly and the field allows it to dominate the pace throughout.
Front-runners win at better than even money here, and an uncontested lead with 12 runners is worth pursuing. Aspull led last time and the yard and rider show forward intent, enough to make this shape credible despite the horse's usual role.
AspullDiamond AliAbu Royal
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Merapi has the ideal profile for this race — hold-up runner, proven soft-ground form, and two placed efforts at the trip — and should not be underestimated despite modest official rating.
WATCH
Potters Prince and Desert Charm will be fighting for limited running room in the middle; whichever breaks clearer will have a real chance, but both racing against their natural position slightly dilutes the certainty of either.
NOTE
Aspull led last time and will go forward early, but its prompt running style leaves it vulnerable to a sustained finish from runners content to wait; watch whether the early pace lets Aspull dominate or fragments under pressure.
NOTE
Astronomica is a complete unknown after 445 days out; if it comes in fit and tuned, the 445-day absence is a serious concern that few horses overcome productively.
NOTE
The draw (1–12) offers no advantage; left-hand bias at Yarmouth slightly favours low draws, but this 1-mile oval is relatively neutral for tactical advantage.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
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