Archive›Yarmouth · 17 September 2026

Yarmouth

17 September 2026 · 7 races

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2:15 — Moss And Co Hospitality Nursery Handicap Stakes

1m · Good · HCAP · 12 runners

3 vying for the leadFREEHISTORICDraw: L · SLIGHT

How it ran

Ariane Sky led; the map had Blue Skies Above and Fortunate and Theft in front.

Ariane Sky won at 2.75 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

Blue Skies AboveFortunateTheft

Prominent · 4

Ariane SkyCasablanca DreamGolden OasisWild Orchid

Midfield · 1

Launchpad

Hold Up · 4

ZonneveldWhiskey GaloreSerenity BayChaise Longue

Blue Skies Above, Fortunate, and Theft all want to lead, guaranteeing a strong, pressured gallop from the off over this flat mile at Yarmouth on good ground. With three genuine front-runners competing for the rail from stalls 4, 5, and 6, the early tempo will be honest at minimum and potentially fierce, stretching the field and placing a premium on stamina in the closing stages. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and going, but when pace-setters race against each other, they tend to burn each other out — the horse who settles just off the boil in a prominent position is the profile best placed to capitalise as the leaders tire. Ariane Sky, already identified as the race's strongest contender, and Golden Oasis sit ideally placed to travel prominently and pounce when the pace-setters crack in the final two furlongs; hold-up horses face a stiffer task given the pace data underlines they tend to find this sort of race shape less rewarding. The field holds more front-running types than can all comfortably secure their favoured position — of the three declared pace-setters, Fortunate, with a recent win over seven furlongs on a similar surface, is most likely to slot into a lead role, while Blue Skies Above and Theft may be forced to race wider or harder than ideal.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Racers Dominate

44% probability

If the three front-runners push each other along at a strong pace and burn out entering the final furlong, leaving a prominent racer to cruise through.

The strong early tempo set by Blue Skies Above, Fortunate, and Theft leaves the pace-setters vulnerable late, handing Ariane Sky the platform to travel smoothly in behind and assert from the two-furlong pole; this is the profile the pace data most rewards over this trip on good ground.

Ariane SkyGolden OasisCasablanca DreamWild Orchid

Front-Runner Steals It

28% probability

If one front-runner breaks cleanly, dictates a controlled fractions, and the others don't match up, allowing a solo lead throughout.

Fortunate is most likely to achieve this given a recent win and capable apprentice partnership, settling into a rhythm and finding enough in reserve to hold on as rivals come too late; this shape still rewards front-running form but requires the pace contest to resolve quickly in the first furlong.

FortunateBlue Skies AboveTheftAriane Sky

Hold-Up Horse Swoops Late

18% probability

If the pace truly collapses and a closer gets a clear run through a tiring field in the final furlong.

Whiskey Galore, who finished second over a longer trip, is the most credible hold-up type with solid recent form, but the pace data makes this style the hardest to win from in this trip-and-going combination, so this scenario requires everything to go right — a fast early burn and a clean passage through.

Whiskey GaloreChaise LongueSerenity BayZonneveld

Midfield Drift Rewards Launchpad

10% probability

If the race fractures into small groups and a horse tracking midfield finds gaps in the straight without needing to make up major ground.

Launchpad is a genuine hold-up type here racing in an unfamiliar midfield role due to the crowded pace picture, meaning it would need to find a position that doesn't suit its natural rhythm; that mismatch makes this the least likely scenario, but on a flat track where gaps can appear late, a clear run cannot be entirely dismissed.

LaunchpadWild OrchidCasablanca DreamGolden Oasis

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch whether Blue Skies Above or Theft attempt to match Fortunate for the early lead — if all three fight it out from the gate, the pace will be fierce and all three are at serious risk of stopping in the final two furlongs.

WATCH

Ariane Sky's draw in stall one gives Rossa Ryan the option to tuck in behind the pace-setters on the rail — if he gets a clean passage from the start rather than being squeezed, his chance is materially enhanced.

WATCH

Casablanca Dream and Wild Orchid are both flagged as horses who fade in the finish; if either drifts right under pressure in the straight, horses making ground on the outside could find their run blocked at a critical moment.

NOTE

Whiskey Galore's second place over eight furlongs is the best piece of hold-up form in the field — watch whether Billy Loughnane angles for the outside on straightening up, as that is the only way a closer finds clear daylight in this field.

NOTE

Launchpad's high draw in stall 12 means it will start widest of all in a field where left-side draws carry a slight edge — if it is forced to race even further from its preferred hold-up position, the racing-out-of-role concern becomes more pronounced.

2:45 — Infobond EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

1m1f · Good · CLS4 · 9 runners

Savingprivateparry likeliest to leadHISTORICDraw: L · SLIGHT

How it ran

Quintillion led; the map had Savingprivateparry in front.

Wykehurst Park won at 1.73 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Savingprivateparry

Prominent · 3

Mr TwigStrong PerformanceCrown Ranger

Midfield · 2

QuintillionHowluckyweare

Hold Up · 3

Wykehurst ParkSydney CartonCracking Idea

Savingprivateparry is the sole confirmed pace-setter in this nine-runner maiden, and with no rival willing to press for the lead, the race will be run at a steady, controlled tempo from the front. The three prominent types — Strong Performance, Mr Twig, and Crown Ranger — will settle just off the leader's heels, but none looks likely to force the issue or inject serious early pressure. That leaves the race to develop as a patient, strung-out affair with a relatively short, sharp finish from the home turn, suiting horses that can travel close to the pace rather than those relying on a sustained late burst. Front-runners and prominent racers have a strong record over this trip and going combination, meaning horses able to sit handily and quicken from a good position are best placed, while hold-up horses face a stiffer task in a race where the pace is unlikely to be severe enough to bring them into contention late.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Handy Horses Dominate

67% probability

If Savingprivateparry controls a steady gallop and the race sets up for those travelling prominently to quicken off the bend.

The moderate tempo keeps the field compact and denies hold-up runners the strong pace they need, allowing prominent and handily placed horses to kick clear in the final two furlongs; Crown Ranger's placed efforts at this trip length and Strong Performance's jumping position both suit.

Crown RangerStrong PerformanceMr TwigWykehurst Park

Unexpected Closer Lands

16% probability

If the pace proves slightly stronger than expected and hold-up horses get a genuine tow into the race.

A stronger-than-anticipated gallop stretches the field and creates a genuine pace to run at, allowing a horse held up in the early stages to sweep past tiring leaders; Wykehurst Park, held up by Oisin Murphy for Andrew Balding's in-form yard, is best equipped to exploit this.

Wykehurst ParkSydney CartonCracking IdeaQuintillion

Lone Leader Holds On

11% probability

If Savingprivateparry sets an uncontested crawl and the rider gains enough daylight to steal the race without being run down.

A truly crawling pace can make a front-runner almost impossible to catch if the gap is opened early enough and rivals react too slowly; Savingprivateparry gets the run of the race but would need marked improvement to convert from this position.

SavingprivateparryMr TwigStrong PerformanceCrown Ranger

Newcomer Surprises

6% probability

If Howluckyweare, unraced for William Haggas with Tom Marquand aboard, arrives with significantly better ability than the field.

A debut winner from a powerful combination can overturn any race shape simply through class superiority; given the stable's strength, Howluckyweare cannot be ignored but the unknown quantity lowers the probability considerably.

HowluckyweareQuintillionWykehurst ParkCrown Ranger

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Howluckyweare — an unraced Haggas/Marquand combination has the profile to outclass this field regardless of race shape; watch closely in the betting ring for any significant market move.

WATCH

Crown Ranger — ran just six days ago and is the only rated runner in the field; track whether the quick turnaround leaves him flat early, as it could compromise his prominent racing style at a crucial stage.

WATCH

Wykehurst Park — Oisin Murphy will be looking for a gap turning in from a hold-up position; if the pace is truly steady, he may find himself short of room as the field bunches, so watch how the gaps develop off the home turn.

NOTE

Sydney Carton — the hood is applied for the first time today; if the headgear sharpens the horse's early response, it could move from a deep hold-up position to a more competitive midfield spot, altering the late dynamics slightly.

NOTE

Savingprivateparry — if the rider elects to bowl along in front unchallenged and opens up a decisive lead on the home turn, the field will need to raise their effort quickly; watch the gap at the two-furlong pole as the key moment this race shape is settled.

3:15 — Dan Hague, Rails Bookmaker Nursery Handicap Stakes

6f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners

5 vying for the leadHISTORICDraw: L · STRONG

How it ran

Eighth Immortal led; the map had Bill The Bull and Dubai Charm and Troublesome Guest and Conciliate and Easy Answer in front.

Eighth Immortal won at 7.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 5

Bill The BullDubai CharmTroublesome GuestConciliateEasy Answer

Prominent · 4

Spirit of LyraEighth ImmortalCatching DreamsSoldier of The Sea

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 2

Sydney GraceMirzimaan

Bill The Bull (draw 1, favoured rail), Dubai Charm (draw 2, favoured), and Troublesome Guest (draw 4) are all confirmed front-runners, and with Easy Answer and Conciliate also likely to press forward early, this race will be run at a fierce, unrelenting gallop from the off on Good ground over six furlongs at Yarmouth. That wall of early speed almost certainly turns this into a genuine stamina examination, with the leaders doing battle for positions from the first stride and the pace unlikely to relent at any point. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and going in this style of race, but the sheer number of them here means they will burn each other out, creating a genuine test that should play straight into the hands of horses racing prominently but with a touch more restraint — horses who can sit just off the blistering early fractions, conserve energy, and sprint through a weakening leader in the final furlong.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Stalkers Pounce

48% probability

If the pace war between the multiple front-runners burns them off and leaves a clean run for horses sitting just behind the leaders.

Dubai Charm and Bill The Bull set a furious early pace, but the attrition allows a prominent-tracking type to swoop in the final two furlongs on the favoured low side of the draw; this is the most likely shape given the volume of speed horses and the strong record of prominent runners on this trip and going.

Bill The BullDubai CharmSoldier of The SeaSpirit of Lyra

Front-Runner Survives Chaos

27% probability

If one low-draw front-runner controls the pace better than rivals and clears out early before the field can respond.

Bill The Bull from stall one or Dubai Charm from stall two finds a comfortable lead despite the traffic and kicks clear before the field organises; Good ground and a flat track favour a clean-running front-runner who avoids the internal speed duel.

Bill The BullDubai CharmTroublesome GuestConciliate

Midfield Sneaks Through

16% probability

If the front-runners tie each other up completely and a midfield horse finds gaps to exploit along the favoured low rail.

Eighth Immortal or Catching Dreams, sitting mid-pack, benefit from a collapsed pace that leaves gaps inside; this shape relies on a chaotic conclusion and the midfield record on this trip and going makes it less likely than the prominent scenario.

Eighth ImmortalCatching DreamsConciliateSpirit of Lyra

Late Closer Lands Blow

9% probability

If the pace genuinely collapses so completely that hold-up horses get an uncharacteristic tow into the race from a wide draw.

Mirzimaan from stall eight or Sydney Grace would need chaos and luck from unfavoured draws to get competitive late; hold-up horses have a poor record on this trip and going, and both face stiff draw penalties, making this the least likely shape.

MirzimaanSydney GraceEasy AnswerConciliate

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Bill The Bull and Dubai Charm will both want to lead from stall one and two — watch which of the two establishes a clear advantage inside the first furlong, as the one forced to race alongside the other rather than in front will likely weaken before the final furlong.

WATCH

Easy Answer is a front-runner drawn in stall 11 against the strong low-draw bias — watch whether Oisin Murphy attempts to cross to the rail early, which would burn significant energy before the race has truly begun.

WATCH

Soldier of The Sea is the most significant draw casualty in stall 10 — Tom Marquand will need to push across or ride against the established bias, and if he fails to do so the favoured rail runners will have a meaningful structural advantage throughout.

NOTE

Spirit of Lyra is drawn three in a position to slot in just behind the leaders on the rail — watch whether she can find a clean passage behind the pace war; if she does, she is ideally placed to benefit from the scenario most likely to unfold.

NOTE

Mirzimaan's chance depends almost entirely on the pace collapsing completely — if the leaders set a truly suicidal gallop and the field bunches, his late run from stall eight becomes live; if even one front-runner conserves enough energy, he is too far back to land a blow.

3:45 — Boodles Handicap Stakes

6f · Good · HCAP · 12 runners

6 vying for the leadHISTORICDraw: L · STRONG

How it ran

Another Abbot and Westport and Midnight Thunder led, as the map showed.

Pilu won at 5.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 6

PiluDeep HavanaMidnight ThunderRay Mon DoughGod of WarSo Darn Hot

Prominent · 3

Dapper ValleyKodi LionWestport

Midfield · 1

Another Abbot

Hold Up · 2

PurosangueArt Lover

Five confirmed front-runners — Pilu (draw 1), Deep Havana (draw 2), Ray Mon Dough, Midnight Thunder, and God of War — plus So Darn Hot from an unfavoured wide draw guarantee a furious pace from the off on this flat Yarmouth six furlongs. Deep Havana, drawn low and in career-best form, will be the one to beat to the first marker, but with Oisin Murphy aboard Midnight Thunder and Sean Levey on Ray Mon Dough both committed to forward positions, the early splits will be compressed and the tempo relentless. On Good ground over this trip, front-runners have an outstanding record, yet when five horses are scrapping for the same piece of turf the spoils typically go to the one who settles best or gets the cleanest run — here that points to a prominently-raced horse from a low-to-middle draw who conserves enough energy to finish, rather than a pure hold-up operator. The race shape strongly favours Deep Havana, who can dictate or race just off a contested lead, and the prominent types drawn low (Dapper Valley, Pilu) who can slot in behind the pace without being swallowed by it; hold-up horses drawn wide face a compounded disadvantage in this race.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Contested Pace, Leader Survives

44% probability

If Deep Havana secures a clear lead early and the pace is strong enough to string out the field but not so destructive that it costs the leader.

Deep Havana, best drawn of the front-runners and in excellent recent form (six wins and places at this level), controls the tempo from his low draw while the wider front-runners — So Darn Hot and God of War — use energy fighting for position; a true but not suicidal pace allows the leader to find a second wind in the final furlong on Good ground.

Deep HavanaRay Mon DoughPiluDapper Valley

Prominent Pair Pounce Late

28% probability

If the lead contest is fierce enough to cut down the front-runners in the final furlong and low-drawn prominent types inherit the spoils.

Dapper Valley (drawn 3, three wins from six starts on similar ground) and Pilu (drawn 1, winning at this trip on Good) are ideally positioned to track the pace and pounce as the duelling leaders tie up close home; both carry the significant tactical advantage of favoured low draws on a track where the stands-side bias is clear.

Dapper ValleyPiluWestportKodi Lion

Pace Collapse, Hold-Up Horse Arrives

17% probability

If the front-runners burn each other out completely and a closer picks up the pieces despite an unfavoured wide draw.

Purosangue or Art Lover would need a near-total pace implosion, and both carry the disadvantage of hold-up styles on a trip and going combination where such horses rarely run to their market prices; the favourable draw for Purosangue (stall 4) gives a marginal edge over Art Lover wide in stall 12, though neither horse's recent form — finishing in the mid-pack repeatedly — inspires confidence.

PurosangueArt LoverAnother AbbotWestport

Pace Moderate, Midfield Stays On

11% probability

If the pace proves less fierce than expected — perhaps through early negotiation between front-runners — and midfield types get a soft lead to track.

Another Abbot has won twice at this trip on Good ground and is trained by a yard firing on all cylinders, but a draw in stall 10 (unfavoured) and a hold-up tendency mean he needs an atypically steady pace to be involved; Westport similarly has strong course-form at five and six furlongs but races from stall 9, making this shape a genuine long shot rather than a live threat.

Another AbbotWestportKodi LionGod of War

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Deep Havana holds every key positional advantage — low draw, front-running style, Good-ground form — and if James Doyle gets an uncontested lead through the early stages, the danger is that the race is over before the closers can organise a challenge.

WATCH

The five-way pace battle in the first two furlongs risks producing a chaotic early scramble: watch how hard God of War and So Darn Hot press to hold their positions, as their energy expenditure will have a direct bearing on whether the pace is truly suicidal or merely fast.

WATCH

Pilu in stall 1 and Dapper Valley in stall 3 are both capable of racing more prominently than their usual positions suggest — if either secures a clean run just off the early leaders without being caught in the initial scrimmage, they become the primary threats to Deep Havana late.

NOTE

Art Lover and Purosangue are both hold-up horses from wide or moderate draws; on a day when the going is riding consistently Good across the card and front-runners are performing well, the burden of proof on any closer to justify support is high.

NOTE

Westport's draw in stall 9 is the key limiting factor — watch the early stages to see whether Billy Loughnane attempts to angle across to the low-draw stands rail or settles for racing through the middle, as that decision will determine whether George Boughey's in-form yard gets a proper run at the leaders.

4:15 — Goffs Two Million Series Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)

1m6f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Tai Hang Pegasus to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Tai Hang Pegasus led, as the map showed.

Divine Knight won at 3.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Tai Hang Pegasus

Prominent · 4

HeroicsSixty PlusDivine KnightSt Mawes

Midfield · 3

Zachary HickesMoon AngelEducator

Hold Up · 2

KnightsailCaprelo

Tai Hang Pegasus is the sole confirmed front-runner and looks set to get a comfortable lead from stall four, which on a flat, straightforward track like Yarmouth over a mile and six furlongs means he can dictate his own rhythm without being pressured. However, behind him there is real congestion for the prominent berths, with Divine Knight, St Mawes, Heroics, and Sixty Plus all wanting to race in that attacking position — only two or three of them can realistically secure it, and the resulting jostling could produce a slightly more pressured pace than the headline suggests. Educator is a genuine prominent-style horse who is likely to find himself running further back than he would prefer, given the number of rivals competing for that ground ahead of him. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and going, and a race likely to be run at a controlled, even tempo from the front strongly favours those who can press or track the pace closely rather than those making ground from off it — the prominent and front-running profile is the one to side with here.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Tai Hang Leads, Prominent Wins

65% probability

If Tai Hang Pegasus controls proceedings at a fair pace and the prominent chasers — particularly Heroics and Sixty Plus — track him into the straight with cover.

Tai Hang sets a manageable gallop and the race unfolds in a line, with the prominent horses ideally placed to pounce off a true pace over the last three furlongs on Yarmouth's flat, unforgiving straight; horses who have been racing in the first three or four throughout are handed first run and the hold-up brigade simply cannot generate enough momentum to reel them in.

HeroicsSixty PlusSt MawesTai Hang Pegasus

Pace Collapse, Fresh Legs Win

16% probability

If the prominent congestion produces a brief scrimmage early and Tai Hang Pegasus is taken on harder than expected, slowing the race into a crawl before a sprint finish.

A slow-run affair sets up a sharp-end dash, handing an advantage to horses with tactical speed and a turn of foot rather than pure stamina; Zachary Hickes and Moon Angel, travelling in midfield, could find conditions that suit their quicker, punchier style.

Zachary HickesMoon AngelHeroicsDivine Knight

Hold-Up Horse Swoops Late

11% probability

If a genuinely strong pace develops — perhaps with Sixty Plus and Heroics both pushing forward alongside Tai Hang Pegasus — and the leaders empty inside the final furlong.

Hold-up runners have struggled to reverse market expectations over this trip and going, so this shape requires specific conditions to materialise; Caprelo is best placed among the closers if the pace truly collapses the leaders, though even then he faces a significant ask from the back.

CapreloKnightsailMoon AngelZachary Hickes

Pace Chaos, Traffic Victim Costs

8% probability

If the prominent congestion causes significant interference two or three furlongs out, choking the progress of several well-positioned horses at a critical stage.

Runners drawn wider and away from trouble — or those with a jockey experienced enough to find a gap quickly — avoid the worst of any scrimmage; St Mawes from stall nine may enjoy cleaner air on the outside and benefit if rivals on the inner are checked.

St MawesDivine KnightHeroicsSixty Plus

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Prominent congestion between Heroics, Sixty Plus, St Mawes, and Divine Knight in the early stages could produce interference or a check two to three furlongs out — horses caught in a pocket at that point may find their race over before the straight is reached.

WATCH

Sixty Plus has won three on the bounce at shorter trips and over fourteen furlongs — if he lacks the stamina for a mile and six, his prominent position could see him fade and take other horses wide with him in the straight.

WATCH

Educator will need to overcome racing out of his natural position; if Billy Loughnane can't recover a forward pitch from stall ten, the horse's recent winning form may not translate in a race that looks set to reward those who are close to the pace throughout.

NOTE

Tai Hang Pegasus is three years old and steps up from twelve to sixteen furlongs — if Kaiya Fraser's judgement of pace is slightly off and the gallop becomes too strong or too slow, it could trigger a very different race shape to the controlled lead scenario that suits him best.

4:45 — White Swan Fishermans Fortune Handicap Stakes

7f · Good · HCAP · 13 runners

Victorian Rose likeliest to leadHISTORICDraw: L · SLIGHT

How it ran

Viking Glory led; the map had Victorian Rose in front.

Anton Mauve won at 13.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up.

3 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Victorian Rose

Prominent · 4

Viking GloryNoble GuestHint of The JungleCurrahee

Midfield · 4

Portman BlueSplit ElevensBizarre LawWise Crack

Hold Up · 4

Pickering CastleEmery DownMiddleton ViewAnton Mauve

Victorian Rose is the lone confirmed front-runner and, with a clear lead from stall one, is likely to bowl along at a sustainable gallop rather than face any serious early pressure — creating a single-file, controlled tempo that will suit those positioned just off the pace. Hint of The Jungle, Noble Guest, Viking Glory and Currahee will all want to race prominently, so the battle for the early places behind Victorian Rose will be brisk, but none of these should be truly reckless and the overall pace is unlikely to be fast enough to play into the hands of deep closers. On this trip and going, front-runners and prominent racers have a strong record, while hold-up horses have consistently underperformed against their market expectations, giving a clear edge to those who settle just behind the leader and can pounce in the final two furlongs. The field holds more hold-up types than can find a genuine closing position: Split Elevens, Wise Crack and Bizarre Law have all been mapped forward of their natural spot, meaning Emery Down — the Strand Scorecard's top pick — is the one true hold-up horse likely to secure an unencumbered run from the rear, with prominent racers in the best position to benefit from the pace shape.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Pair Dominate

57% probability

If Victorian Rose sets a fair tempo and the race is won by a horse who travels just behind the leader into the straight.

Hint of The Jungle, who has a fine record on good ground over this trip, and Viking Glory, with a win over 7f on good, are ideally placed to stalk the pace and hit the front at the right moment; the controlled gallop means stamina is less of a factor and tactical sharpness from a handy position is rewarded.

Hint of The JungleViking GloryNoble GuestCurrahee

Scorecard Pick Delivers

22% probability

If the pace is honest enough to stretch the field and Emery Down, arriving late from a genuine rear position, has the clearest run.

Emery Down ran second over 7f on good ground and has tactical pace when the race is truly run, and with fewer genuine hold-up horses securing the rail the gaps should open late; Pat Cosgrave's experience in managing a run through a strung-out field is a meaningful advantage here.

Emery DownWise CrackSplit ElevensMiddleton View

Front-runner Steals It

13% probability

If Victorian Rose is allowed to dictate a truly dawdling tempo and no one has the inclination to go after her early enough.

Front-runners have shown a strong record over this trip and going, and with stall one giving Victorian Rose an uncontested lead, she could simply build an unassailable advantage if the prominent horses are too conservative; her low rating means she is well handicapped on her best form and she does have early speed, though her fade flag is a real concern.

Victorian RoseNoble GuestHint of The JungleCurrahee

Closers Pounce Late

8% probability

If Viking Glory or Currahee go too hard too soon and the pace genuinely collapses in the final two furlongs, opening the race to deeper horses.

Several of the hold-up types in this race are out of their natural position, which reduces the reliability of this shape considerably; however, if the front end does burn out, Middleton View or Pickering Castle could pick up the pieces having been held up through the early scramble.

Middleton ViewPickering CastleWise CrackBizarre Law

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

WATCH

Victorian Rose (stall 1) will go straight to the front unchallenged — watch how quickly the prominent pack behind her settles, as an unusually slow early tempo could flatter her fade risk and distort the race shape for everyone else.

WATCH

Hint of The Jungle arrives after 94 days off the track — watch his pre-race demeanour and how he travels in the early stages, as a big absence can affect a horse's ability to sustain his effort over the final furlong.

NOTE

Split Elevens, Wise Crack and Bizarre Law are all natural closers who will be racing closer to the pace than they would ideally like — watch whether any of them get caught in traffic mid-race or are unable to find a clear passage in the straight.

KEY

Currahee (stall 13) has a tendency to fade in the finish and races prominently — if he goes too hard from a wide draw trying to get cover, he risks setting a pace that collapses and brings the field together, significantly changing which profiles benefit.

NOTE

Emery Down runs just six days after his last outing — watch his market move before the off, as any drift could signal the yard is giving him a quick return simply for fitness rather than peak readiness.

5:15 — LA Continental Cafe Of Great Yarmouth Handicap Stakes

1m · Good · HCAP · 15 runners

Lead contested: Dashing Dick v New Bay StarHISTORICDraw: L · SLIGHT

How it ran

New Bay Star led, as the map showed.

Guest House won at 11.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Dashing DickNew Bay Star

Prominent · 4

Eduardo CalderonMountain of LightRusheen BoyKhuskhas

Midfield · 5

Forever EndlessTimely AffairMontpellier GreenBorn A RebelGuest House

Hold Up · 4

Makes Me WonderPacketofbiscuitsMan of DesertTactical Plan

Dashing Dick and New Bay Star will dispute the lead from the off, ensuring this mile is run at an honest, genuine gallop rather than a slow-burn affair. Dashing Dick is drawn in stall one and New Bay Star in stall ten, so both will need to commit early, and with neither likely to concede the front, the early fractions should be brisk and sustained. That contested pace over a flat mile on good ground historically rewards horses who can travel prominently without burning too many matches — horses who sit just off the two leaders and pounce from a position of comfort. Several horses in this field are naturally inclined to come from off the pace, but with so many true hold-up types in the field, Timely Affair, Born A Rebel, Guest House, and Montpellier Green are unlikely to find their natural position at the rear and will race closer to the pace than their handlers might prefer — Dashing Dick and New Bay Star are most certain to actually secure a front-running berth. This race shape favours genuine prominent racers who can sit just behind the two leaders and use the honest pace to their advantage.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Honest pace, prominent wins

47% probability

If Dashing Dick and New Bay Star set a genuine gallop and the race is run to suit horses travelling in the slipstream of the leaders.

The two front-runners set an even tempo and burn each other out, leaving Eduardo Calderon, Mountain of Light, or Khuskhas — sitting two or three lengths off the pace — to pounce in the straight without having spent themselves in the early battle; prominent racers have a strong record over this trip on this type of going and surface.

KhuskhasMountain of LightEduardo CalderonRusheen Boy

Front-runner controls race

22% probability

If one of the two pace-setters gets a clear lead and the other fades early, allowing a lone front-runner to dictate on its own terms.

New Bay Star or Dashing Dick, uncontested at the front, sets a controlled gallop and proves too hard to reel in for horses forced to make ground from midfield; front-runners have a strong record on this trip and going combination, and a sole leader on a flat track with a true surface has every chance of lasting home.

New Bay StarDashing DickRusheen BoyEduardo Calderon

Held-up types make late move

19% probability

If the early pace is so hot that it collapses the field and produces a true end-to-end gallop that opens the door for horses from off the pace.

Born A Rebel and Guest House, forced to race closer than ideal, still manage to find clear running in the straight and finish strongly as the front two tire rapidly; hold-up horses have a poor record over this trip and going relative to expectations, so this scenario requires a truly extreme early pace to overcome that headwind.

Born A RebelGuest HouseTimely AffairMakes Me Wonder

Muddling pace, midfield grind

12% probability

If the two front-runners neutralise each other quickly and the gallop becomes uneven, producing a messy race with no clear tempo.

The field compresses into a tight bunch, placing a premium on draw, positioning, and a horse who can quicken in a compressed straight; Forever Endless and Makes Me Wonder, tracking the pace from midfield, could benefit from any positional chaos, though midfield runners have a below-par record over this trip and going.

Makes Me WonderForever EndlessTactical PlanMan of Desert

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

If New Bay Star crosses across the field from stall ten to challenge Dashing Dick for the lead, the early pace could become frantic and compress the entire field — watch how quickly the front two establish their positions in the first two furlongs.

WATCH

Mountain of Light has finished second three times in four recent starts on good ground over a mile and with Oisin Murphy in the saddle, he is likely to be produced at exactly the right moment — a sustained run from two out could be hard to peg back.

WATCH

Rusheen Boy arrives in the form of his life off back-to-back wins; if Sean Levey manages to place him just behind the leaders without getting caught in traffic, he carries a serious threat to the front-running pair late on.

NOTE

Several hold-up horses — including Born A Rebel, Guest House, and Timely Affair — will be racing closer to the pace than they would prefer given the volume of similar types in this field; watch for congestion in the straight if the pace compresses the group.

NOTE

The draw is a mild factor here with left-side stalls slightly favoured, but with Dashing Dick (stall 1) confirmed as a front-runner anyway, the draw advantage is largely absorbed by pace — New Bay Star from stall 10 will need to do extra work to get where he wants to be.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 17 September 2026.

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