Captain Brett won at 6.50 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Laravie
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 0
None
Hold Up · 2
BetelgeuseCaptain Brett
Laravie is the lone front-runner in this three-runner contest over 1m6f at Yarmouth on good-to-firm ground, and with no rivals willing or able to challenge for the lead, she will control every fraction from the gate. Racing prominently by style and carrying a visor, Laravie arrives on a hat-trick of wins over similar staying trips and will set a measured, uncontested tempo that could be deceptively steady through the early stages. Both Betelgeuse and Captain Brett are hold-up horses who will sit in behind and rely on a strong enough gallop to bring their finishing kicks into play. This race shape strongly favours a front-runner or prominent racer who can dictate and conserve energy at a controlled pace — the hold-up pair need Laravie to stretch things out, but she holds every card in setting the terms she prefers.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Laravie Dictates Unchallenged
72% probability
If Laravie leads at her own pace and the hold-up pair fail to quicken past her in the straight.
If Laravie leads at her own pace and the hold-up pair fail to quicken past her in the straight.
LaravieBetelgeuseCaptain Brett
B
Hold-Up Pair Outstay Leader
15% probability
If Laravie sets a stronger-than-expected gallop that exposes her stamina limits late, allowing the closers to pick her off.
If Laravie sets a stronger-than-expected gallop that exposes her stamina limits late, allowing the closers to pick her off.
BetelgeuseCaptain BrettLaravie
C
Captain Brett Stays On Late
8% probability
If the pace is genuinely strong and Captain Brett, who ran well over 2m at Goodwood, proves the most effective stayer at this 1m6f trip.
If the pace is genuinely strong and Captain Brett, who ran well over 2m at Goodwood, proves the most effective stayer at this 1m6f trip.
Captain BrettBetelgeuseLaravie
D
Muddling Tactical Race
5% probability
If the pace collapses to a near-crawl and the race becomes a sprint finish from the home turn.
If the pace collapses to a near-crawl and the race becomes a sprint finish from the home turn.
LaravieBetelgeuseCaptain Brett
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Laravie controls the pace entirely — watch whether she accelerates entering the straight to deny the hold-up pair a target, as a slow-and-sprint scenario narrows the hold-up horses' winning angles dramatically.
WATCH
Betelgeuse was last seen 29 days ago and ran on Polytrack; watch his early movement and positioning to gauge whether he has the zip to close on a front-runner who is never pressured.
WATCH
Captain Brett has been beaten at short odds in similar conditions before — watch whether Ghiani tries an atypical positive move to avoid getting caught flat-footed in a steadily-run small-field contest.
NOTE
With only three runners, any early incident or interference is magnified — watch the break from the gate, as Laravie must establish her lead cleanly to ensure the race runs to her strengths.
2:05 — Download The QuinnBet App EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)
6f · Good · CLS4 · 10 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
2:40 — QuinnBet Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap
5f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners
Rocking Ends likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Law Of Average led; the map had Rocking Ends in front.
Michaela's Boy won at 13.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Rocking Ends
Prominent · 1
Havana Blast
Midfield · 2
Law Of AverageCressida Wildes
Hold Up · 2
Twilight CallsMichaela's Boy
Rocking Ends is the lone confirmed front-runner in this six-runner 5f sprint at Yarmouth on Good to Firm ground, and with no genuine rival willing to press him for the lead, he is set to control a measured, sustainable gallop from the gates. Havana Blast is the only other prominent-style horse and is more likely to track than challenge for the lead, meaning Rocking Ends can dictate without being pressured. The hold-up contingent of Twilight Calls, Michaela's Boy, Law Of Average, and Cressida Wildes all share the rear of the field, though Law Of Average and Cressida Wildes are true hold-up types redistributed into the midfield picture on the map — the field holds more closers than the race shape comfortably accommodates at the back, and Twilight Calls and Michaela's Boy are the most likely to genuinely occupy those rearward berths. An uncontested lead on fast ground over an undemanding flat five furlongs strongly favours the prominent and front-running profile — a horse that can control tempo and outstay rivals from the front is ideally placed, with hold-up runners needing either an overly brisk pace or a well-timed split that this shape may simply not deliver.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Lead Dominates
68% probability
If Rocking Ends bowls along in front unchallenged and the pace is controlled but honest enough to expose hold-up horses.
If Rocking Ends bowls along in front unchallenged and the pace is controlled but honest enough to expose hold-up horses.
Rocking EndsHavana BlastTwilight CallsLaw Of Average
B
Prominent Pair Fight Out
16% probability
If Havana Blast tracks Rocking Ends closely enough to mount a sustained challenge in the final furlong rather than simply tracking.
If Havana Blast tracks Rocking Ends closely enough to mount a sustained challenge in the final furlong rather than simply tracking.
Havana BlastRocking EndsTwilight CallsMichaela's Boy
C
Late Closers Pounce
10% probability
If Rocking Ends sets a genuinely fast early tempo that results in him tying up inside the final furlong, opening the door for hold-up horses.
If Rocking Ends sets a genuinely fast early tempo that results in him tying up inside the final furlong, opening the door for hold-up horses.
Twilight CallsMichaela's BoyLaw Of AverageHavana Blast
D
Midfield Spoiler Strikes
6% probability
If the race fragments with horses spread across the track and one of the redistributed hold-up types finds a clear run from midfield to score against the bias.
If the race fragments with horses spread across the track and one of the redistributed hold-up types finds a clear run from midfield to score against the bias.
Law Of AverageCressida WildesTwilight CallsHavana Blast
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Rocking Ends exits the stalls cleanly — if he misses the break in a small field of six, the entire race shape collapses and hold-up horses inherit a far more live chance.
WATCH
Twilight Calls and Michaela's Boy are the genuine closers; watch whether either can find a clear passage in a six-runner race where the field may fan wide early and leave limited ground to make up.
WATCH
Law Of Average's last two wins came on Good and Firm — if the going is riding faster than the official Good to Firm assessment, his class and recent form make him a sharper threat than his redistributed map position implies.
NOTE
Havana Blast's course and trip record on non-Standard surfaces is limited (4 from 9 on similar going); if he fails to travel comfortably tracking Rocking Ends, the prominent profile in this race is thinly represented and the race becomes more one-dimensional.
NOTE
With only six runners on a straight flat five furlongs, a wide draw could grant any hold-up horse a rails-hugging or clear-air run without being blocked — check stall positions and early race positioning once the handlers release them.
3:15 — QuinnBet Free Bet For Second To The SP Favourite Handicap (GBBPlus Race)
1m2f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners
Charlie's Choice likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Moonjid led; the map had Charlie's Choice in front.
Moonjid won at 4.50 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Charlie's Choice
Prominent · 2
NicatorKing's Hand
Midfield · 2
Penelope ValentineSibling Rivelry
Hold Up · 2
Show Biz KidMoonjid
Charlie's Choice is the lone confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine pressurer likely to challenge for the lead, will be allowed to dictate at a comfortable, sustainable gallop over this 1m2f on Good to Firm ground at Yarmouth. King's Hand and Nicator will push forward to fill the prominent positions directly behind, creating a controlled, single-file procession rather than a contested pace scenario. The field holds more prominent-leaning horses than the race shape can accommodate — Penelope Valentine and Sibling Rivelry are both natural front-end types but are likely to be shuffled back into midfield against their instincts, compromising their effectiveness. This race shape strongly favours horses who can travel prominently in a genuine position — King's Hand and Nicator — or those proven closers with the tactical speed to pounce off a modest, uncontested gallop, rather than hold-up horses who need a truly searching pace to reel in the leaders.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Lead, Prominent Win
68% probability
If Charlie's Choice dictates an unchallenged, moderate tempo and the race is won by a horse tracking in second or third.
If Charlie's Choice dictates an unchallenged, moderate tempo and the race is won by a horse tracking in second or third.
If Charlie's Choice's moderate gallop is never genuinely challenged and the field is slow to respond in the straight.
If Charlie's Choice's moderate gallop is never genuinely challenged and the field is slow to respond in the straight.
Charlie's ChoiceKing's HandNicatorSibling Rivelry
C
Closers Reel Them In
12% probability
If the pace proves genuinely slow enough that hold-up horses conserve energy and pounce with a sharp turn of foot in the final two furlongs.
If the pace proves genuinely slow enough that hold-up horses conserve energy and pounce with a sharp turn of foot in the final two furlongs.
Show Biz KidMoonjidSibling RivelryPenelope Valentine
D
Pace Collapse, Chaos
6% probability
If the modest gallop produces a bunched, sprint-finish from the two-furlong pole with multiple horses in contention simultaneously.
If the modest gallop produces a bunched, sprint-finish from the two-furlong pole with multiple horses in contention simultaneously.
Sibling RivelryPenelope ValentineMoonjidShow Biz Kid
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
King's Hand has won twice on Good ground at 10f and gets a prominent pitch directly behind Charlie's Choice — if he travels smoothly under Jack Mitchell, he is the most dangerous horse in the race to the leader turning for home.
WATCH
Penelope Valentine and Sibling Rivelry both want to race prominently but cannot both get that position — watch which of the two manages to slot in closer to the pace early, as the one left in midfield will be racing against its own instincts.
WATCH
Show Biz Kid's last win came on Firm ground over this trip but Michael Appleby's 0/24 14-day record is a significant trainer-form concern — monitor market moves for any sign the yard has this horse ready.
NOTE
Going is confirmed Good to Firm for this race despite the headline listed as Good — fast-ground specialists such as Show Biz Kid and King's Hand receive a quiet nudge in their favour from the updated going report.
NOTE
Charlie's Choice has simulated-going stats of 1 win from 15 attempts on comparable surfaces — a front-runner who fails to win on this going profile even when allowed to lead unchallenged is worth noting as a fade risk late in the straight.
3:50 — quinnbet.com Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)
1m · Good · CLS4 · 9 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
4:25 — Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap
1m · Good · HCAP · 10 runners
Knights Gold likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Influential led; the map had Knights Gold in front.
Gorgeous Mr George won at 5.50 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield.
4 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Knights Gold
Prominent · 3
Cancan In The RainSea SuiteRed Hat Eagle
Midfield · 3
Gorgeous Mr GeorgeKalamundaHitched
Hold Up · 3
Rogue EncoreInfluentialShihoku
Knights Gold is the sole confirmed front-runner and, on Good to Firm ground at Yarmouth's flat mile, is expected to bowl along at a sustainable, uncontested tempo without any genuine pace rival to force him into an early duel. Behind him, Cancan In The Rain, Sea Suite, and Red Hat Eagle are natural prominent types who will compete for the early positions just off the leader, creating a compact early order but not a truly pressured gallop. The field holds more prominent-minded horses than can all slot naturally into those early positions — Gorgeous Mr George, Kalamunda, and Hitched are genuine pace-biased or hold-up types redistributed on the map, meaning real scrimmaging for positions two through five is probable, with Knights Gold, Cancan In The Rain, and Sea Suite most likely to actually secure their preferred slots. A lone, relaxed front-runner on fast ground over a flat mile at Yarmouth creates a rail-hugging, controlled tempo that classically suits hold-up finishers who can track and quicken in the straight, or a prominent horse with the engine to maintain their position and outstay rivals once the pace lifts — the tactical verdict favours genuine hold-up horses who can draft off the steady tempo and unleash a sustained late run.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Knights Gold Controls; Closers Strike
58% probability
If Knights Gold dictates an uncontested, even gallop and the pace is just strong enough to spread the field without burning off the hold-up horses.
If Knights Gold dictates an uncontested, even gallop and the pace is just strong enough to spread the field without burning off the hold-up horses.
Rogue EncoreInfluentialShihokuHitched
B
Prominent Types Dominate; Pace Honest Enough
22% probability
If the early pace is fractionally stronger than expected — either Sea Suite or Cancan In The Rain pressing Knights Gold — creating a genuine enough tempo that the best-placed prominent runners hold on.
If the early pace is fractionally stronger than expected — either Sea Suite or Cancan In The Rain pressing Knights Gold — creating a genuine enough tempo that the best-placed prominent runners hold on.
Cancan In The RainSea SuiteKnights GoldRed Hat Eagle
C
Pace Collapses; Front Runner Steals It
13% probability
If Knights Gold meets minimal challenge, crawls the early fractions, and sprints clear before hold-up horses can organise a response.
If Knights Gold meets minimal challenge, crawls the early fractions, and sprints clear before hold-up horses can organise a response.
Knights GoldCancan In The RainSea SuiteRed Hat Eagle
D
Chaotic Pace; Hold-Up Types Flattered
7% probability
If scrambling for positions in the early furlongs creates an uneven, stop-start gallop that briefly flatters hold-up horses without truly suiting them.
If scrambling for positions in the early furlongs creates an uneven, stop-start gallop that briefly flatters hold-up horses without truly suiting them.
Rogue EncoreShihokuHitchedInfluential
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Rogue Encore's 76-day absence is a concern, but if Chapple-Hyam has him spot-on for this Yarmouth return over the exact trip of his last win, he is the most naturally suited profile to the anticipated pace shape and any sign of freshness in the paddock should be noted.
WATCH
The scrimmage for prominent positions early on — between Cancan In The Rain, Sea Suite, Red Hat Eagle, and the redistributed Gorgeous Mr George and Kalamunda — could create a slightly uneven early pace, which would be the key race-shape-altering event to watch for in the opening two furlongs.
WATCH
Cancan In The Rain's 258-day absence makes her a significant watch at the start and in the early stages — if she shows any signs of ring-rustiness or fails to stride out prominently, her scenario (B) collapses and the weight shifts firmly back to scenario A.
NOTE
Knights Gold's STYLE_FIT flag (0.93) deserves monitoring — if he finds himself pressed by Sea Suite or Cancan In The Rain off a fast break, the uncontested gallop evaporates and the probability profile shifts meaningfully toward hold-up horses arriving late.
NOTE
Influential's trainer Roger Varian is 5/19 in the 14-day window — the second-strongest yard stat in the race — making this horse worth tracking through the early furlongs to see whether Robbie Downey commits to a closer's run or attempts to edge closer than usual.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
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