The Ubermensch won at 2.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Pleasant Man
Prominent · 1
Hibernate
Midfield · 0
None
Hold Up · 2
CurrumbinThe Ubermensch
Pleasant Man is the sole confirmed front-runner in a field of four and will stride into the lead unchallenged from the outset, setting what should be a sustainable, unhurried gallop over this 1m3½f trip on good-to-firm ground at Yarmouth. With no other genuine pace horse to apply pressure, Pleasant Man can dictate every yard and control the tempo entirely to his own liking, which historically favours front-runners who get soft lead fractions. The two hold-up horses, Currumbin and The Ubermensch, will need a meaningful pace injection in the closing stages to generate the momentum to overhaul a loose leader, and on a flat, galloping track like Yarmouth where there is no downhill run to aid hold-up types, that ask is a significant one. This race shape heavily favours horses who can race prominently or sit just off the pace — Hibernate, the only other prominent-style runner, is best placed to track and challenge, while the hold-up horses face the most demanding tactical scenario.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Lone Leader Controls All
72% probability
If Pleasant Man dictates a steady-to-moderate tempo throughout without any pressure, stamina and concentration of the front-runner become decisive.
If Pleasant Man dictates a steady-to-moderate tempo throughout without any pressure, stamina and concentration of the front-runner become decisive.
Pleasant ManHibernateCurrumbinThe Ubermensch
B
Hibernate Tracks And Pounces
16% probability
If Hibernate sits a length or two off Pleasant Man and produces a smooth move two furlongs out before the leader can quicken away.
If Hibernate sits a length or two off Pleasant Man and produces a smooth move two furlongs out before the leader can quicken away.
HibernateThe UbermenschPleasant ManCurrumbin
C
Closers Grind Through Late
8% probability
If the early pace is just brisk enough to tie up the front two in the final furlong, allowing hold-up horses to close from behind.
If the early pace is just brisk enough to tie up the front two in the final furlong, allowing hold-up horses to close from behind.
The UbermenschCurrumbinHibernatePleasant Man
D
Compressed Finish, Any Order
4% probability
If all four runners are covered by two lengths turning in and a sprint finish unfolds between them.
If all four runners are covered by two lengths turning in and a sprint finish unfolds between them.
The UbermenschHibernatePleasant ManCurrumbin
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Pleasant Man could be very difficult to catch if Toby Moore on Hibernate misjudges the gap and leaves it too late to close — monitor how much daylight Pleasant Man has at the two-furlong pole.
WATCH
Currumbin's 82-day absence combined with his deteriorating form figures is a significant negative; if he struggles for early momentum from a hold-up position, he could become irrelevant before halfway.
WATCH
The Ubermensch ran only six days ago — watch for signs of freshness or fatigue in the preliminaries, as back-to-back quick returns can cut both ways for a hold-up horse who needs to produce a sustained late run.
NOTE
With only four runners and a single pace-setter, any early incident or stumble involving Pleasant Man would completely reshape this race — the lack of an alternative natural leader means Hibernate would be forced to take up the running in a role that suits it better than either closer.
3:09 — Weatherbys EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)
6f · Good · CLS4 · 4 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
3:40 — Weatherbys Racing Bank Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
7f · Good · NOV · 5 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
4:15 — Winning Experience With Moulton Racing Handicap
1m · Good · HCAP · 6 runners
Great Mates likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Tactical Plan led; the map had Great Mates in front.
Great Mates won at 2.62 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Great Mates
Prominent · 1
Kalamunda
Midfield · 2
Man Of DesertBig Alex Walmsley
Hold Up · 2
Sir Edward LearTactical Plan
Great Mates is the sole confirmed front-runner in a six-horse field and, with no genuine pressure expected from rivals, should dictate a controlled, honest gallop on the Good to Firm Yarmouth mile. Kalamunda will attempt to race prominently alongside or just behind Great Mates, giving the race a two-horse front group, while the remainder — Sir Edward Lear, Tactical Plan, Man Of Desert, and Big Alex Walmsley — will settle in the chasing pack. Note that the field holds more hold-up types than can all occupy the rear: Man Of Desert and Big Alex Walmsley are genuine off-the-pace horses who have been mapped to midfield given the congestion, meaning they are unlikely to find as clean a run late as their natural style would suggest. With a single uncontested pace-setter able to control tempo and conserve energy through the first half of the mile, this race shape strongly favours the prominent racer who can travel close to the early pace and pick up when the tempo lifts in the final two furlongs — a true hold-up finish is made harder by the compressed field and the fact that the truest closers are compromised in their ability to find clear daylight.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Lead, Prominent Wins
70% probability
If Great Mates or Kalamunda dictates a steady-honest gallop and the race develops into a sustained two-furlong duel from the front.
If Great Mates or Kalamunda dictates a steady-honest gallop and the race develops into a sustained two-furlong duel from the front.
Great MatesKalamundaSir Edward LearTactical Plan
B
Pace Collapse, Closers Swoop
14% probability
If Great Mates goes too fast early on the quick ground and ties up inside the final furlong, gifting ground to those held up.
If Great Mates goes too fast early on the quick ground and ties up inside the final furlong, gifting ground to those held up.
Sir Edward LearTactical PlanKalamundaMan Of Desert
C
Hold-Up Types Deliver Late
10% probability
If Man Of Desert or Big Alex Walmsley successfully navigate a clear passage from the rear and the pace is genuinely strong enough to set up a late run.
If Man Of Desert or Big Alex Walmsley successfully navigate a clear passage from the rear and the pace is genuinely strong enough to set up a late run.
Man Of DesertBig Alex WalmsleySir Edward LearTactical Plan
D
Muddled, Tactical Affair
6% probability
If Great Mates is restrained or the pace becomes stop-start, turning the race into a sprint from two furlongs out.
If Great Mates is restrained or the pace becomes stop-start, turning the race into a sprint from two furlongs out.
KalamundaSir Edward LearGreat MatesTactical Plan
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Great Mates — watch whether Jack Mitchell (Kalamunda) challenges for the lead early; if he pushes Great Mates into a contested gallop rather than a controlled one, the pace dynamic shifts and the race opens up for the hold-up types.
WATCH
Man Of Desert and Big Alex Walmsley — both are genuine hold-up horses compressed into midfield; watch at the half-mile pole whether De Sousa and Keenan can find racing room, as a traffic-bound effort from either will confirm the redistribution penalty applies in real time.
WATCH
Sir Edward Lear — dropping from 10-16f trips to a flat mile is a significant pattern break; watch in the final furlong whether the trip blunts his finish, which would be a key form guide for future outings regardless of today's result.
NOTE
Kalamunda — the 0/5 trainer 14-day stat is a mild flag, but Jack Mitchell is a strong course-form jockey at Yarmouth; watch whether he tracks Great Mates or gives him daylight, as that positional choice will shape the entire race.
4:50 — Mark Sumner Handicap
1m · Good · HCAP · 7 runners
No obvious leaderHISTORIC
How it ran
Sporty Socks led.
Campani won at 3.25 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
0 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them
With every single runner in this seven-horse field carrying a hold-up profile, there is no natural front-runner to set the gallop, meaning the early stages at Yarmouth's mile will almost certainly be a crawl as each rider waits for others to commit. The race will likely dawdle into the straight before erupting into a bunched sprint finish over the final two furlongs on going that the course reports confirm is Good to Firm, favouring quick acceleration rather than sustained galloping. Campani and Mart carry the highest ORs among the redistributed horses and, if any runner breaks from the group early, it is these two that have the profile — and trainer/jockey quality — to push forward and manufacture a lead in the absence of genuine pace. This race shape overwhelmingly favours runners with a sharp late burst and the ability to quickly find position in a compressed final-furlong sprint, meaning horses with clean form on good ground and strong closing kicks — rather than relentless gallopers — hold the clearest advantage.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Sprint Finish From Bunch
46% probability
If the field idles through the early stages and the race becomes a dash over the final furlong on Good to Firm ground.
If the field idles through the early stages and the race becomes a dash over the final furlong on Good to Firm ground.
CampaniGive Me The NightMidnight's DreamSporty Socks
B
Campani Dictates Pace
24% probability
If Campani or Mart breaks the deadlock and pushes forward to establish a solo lead from halfway.
If Campani or Mart breaks the deadlock and pushes forward to establish a solo lead from halfway.
CampaniMartGive Me The NightMidnight's Dream
C
Closers Pounce Late
19% probability
If the pace is artificially compressed so severely that only the sharpest finishers from the back of the group deliver a winning burst.
If the pace is artificially compressed so severely that only the sharpest finishers from the back of the group deliver a winning burst.
Give Me The NightMidnight's DreamSporty SocksCampani
D
Front Runner Steals It
11% probability
If one runner installs themselves at the head of affairs in the first two furlongs and is simply never challenged in the absence of any rival willing to go forward.
If one runner installs themselves at the head of affairs in the first two furlongs and is simply never challenged in the absence of any rival willing to go forward.
MartCampaniShaws PhoenixLuminous Warrior
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch for Campani drifting in market with 50 days off the track — if money comes for this David Simcock runner it suggests stable confidence that the fresher horse is ready to dominate a field that offers no natural pace.
WATCH
Monitor early race positioning closely: if Mart or Campani's jockeys push forward from the gate and find themselves alone on the lead, the entire race dynamic changes from sprint-finish to front-runner's race and all hold-up runners are immediately disadvantaged.
WATCH
Sporty Socks has not run for 65 days — the longest layoff in the field — and William Stone's yard has recorded 0/5 over the last 14 days; fitness and stable form both require scrutiny before placing weight on this runner.
NOTE
The going at Yarmouth is confirmed Good to Firm for the 4:50, slightly firmer than the stated Good, which slightly raises the premium on top-speed horses and could benefit Campani (1W4P sim-going) over rivals with poor records on fast ground such as Shaws Phoenix and Luminous Warrior.
NOTE
Jockey quality is skewed towards the top of the market — Jack Mitchell, Dougie Costello and Saffie Osborne are all riding prominent yard runners; in a sprint finish where positioning in the final two furlongs matters enormously, the most experienced rider to find daylight first could prove decisive.
5:25 — Branfords Handicap
7f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners
Dancing With Drums likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Dion Baker led; the map had Dancing With Drums in front.
Dion Baker won at 4.33 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Dancing With Drums
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 5
Dion BakerHakin AdraarFederal EnvoyAdelaide BayMayflower Rock
Hold Up · 3
Jungle KnightGiantWilde And Dandy
Dancing With Drums is the sole confirmed front-runner here and, with no genuine rival looking to contest the lead, Dougie Costello can dictate an uncontested, sustainable gallop from the front over this 7f Yarmouth straight. The Good To Firm conditions (confirmed by the going report for this 5:25 slot) will ensure a decent surface tempo but without pressure from behind, Dancing With Drums can control the fractions and keep the race honest rather than turning it into a sprint. The field is heavily stacked with hold-up types — Dion Baker, Hakin Adraar, Federal Envoy, Adelaide Bay, and Mayflower Rock are all true hold-up runners who have been mapped to midfield positions simply because the race shape cannot accommodate that many horses at the rear, meaning several will be racing out of their natural role. This race shape strongly favours prominent-to-lead profiles who can track or make the running, with hold-up horses facing the twin handicap of a potentially modest pace and needing a strong final-furlong surge that a solo leader dictating can deny them.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Solo Leader Controls
58% probability
If Dancing With Drums bowls along uncontested and sets a comfortable, unexposed tempo that the hold-up pack cannot reel in.
If Dancing With Drums bowls along uncontested and sets a comfortable, unexposed tempo that the hold-up pack cannot reel in.
Dancing With DrumsJungle KnightDion BakerGiant
B
Prominent Types Dominate
22% probability
If the pace is honest enough that horses tracking Dancing With Drums close up cruise into contention turning for home and overpower the leader.
If the pace is honest enough that horses tracking Dancing With Drums close up cruise into contention turning for home and overpower the leader.
Dion BakerJungle KnightGiantWilde And Dandy
C
Hold-Up Horse Pounces
12% probability
If Dancing With Drums fades in the final furlong and leaves a gap that a genuine closer can burst through with a sustained run.
If Dancing With Drums fades in the final furlong and leaves a gap that a genuine closer can burst through with a sustained run.
GiantWilde And DandyHakin AdraarFederal Envoy
D
Pace Collapse Scramble
8% probability
If Dancing With Drums burns too bright and the whole field bunches in the final two furlongs, turning the finish into a scrappy battle for position.
If Dancing With Drums burns too bright and the whole field bunches in the final two furlongs, turning the finish into a scrappy battle for position.
Federal EnvoyAdelaide BayMayflower RockHakin Adraar
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Dancing With Drums sets every framing scenario — if Dougie Costello is crowded or bumped at the start and loses the lead to another runner, the entire race shape collapses and hold-up horses gain an unexpected advantage.
WATCH
Dion Baker ran just two days ago (LR: 2d) and while the Wigham yard is red-hot, watch for signs of fatigue in the final furlong — if he fades having raced more prominently than ideal, it opens the race to true hold-up types behind him.
WATCH
Jungle Knight has never encountered ground this quick (all prior runs on soft or standard) — if the good-to-firm surface inconveniences him, the main credible hold-up challenger to Dancing With Drums disappears from the equation.
NOTE
Wilde And Dandy returns from 147 days off with Silvestre De Sousa booked — watch the market move; a well-backed absentee with a top jockey often signals stable confidence and could outrun the ring-rust concern if fit.
NOTE
Multiple hold-up horses (Dion Baker, Hakin Adraar, Federal Envoy, Adelaide Bay, Mayflower Rock) will all be jostling for midfield positions on a straight 7f track — watch for potential traffic issues and interference in the closing stages as they all look for racing room simultaneously.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.