So Grateful led; the map had Shades Of May in front.
Luminous Warrior won at 4.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
0 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Shades Of May
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 5
AlafdhalSo GratefulEndowedIndy's AngelCoiled
Hold Up · 1
Luminous Warrior
Shades Of May is the sole confirmed pace-setter in this seven-runner 6f handicap on good-to-firm ground at Yarmouth, redistributed to the lead because no natural front-runner exists — meaning she will dictate an uncontested, unhurried gallop from the front, setting a sustainable and likely modest tempo. With only one horse doing the donkey work, the pace will be controlled rather than pressured, and the race will almost certainly develop into a tactical affair with most of the field tracking in a cluster behind. This race shape — a lone leader, soft gallop, tight bunched field — historically favours horses who can race prominently or make their run from midfield with a sustained finish rather than those who need a true end-to-end gallop to deliver a late burst. The field holds more hold-up types than the race map can accommodate at the rear, with Alafdhal, So Grateful, Endowed, Indy's Angel, and Coiled all genuine hold-up horses pushed forward on the map; of these, So Grateful and Indy's Angel — both with recent form at 5-6f on good ground — are most likely to press closer to the pace than their natural style suggests.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Shades Of May Controls
62% probability
If Shades Of May dictates a gentle fractions-controlled lead and kicks clear entering the final furlong from an uncontested position.
Unchallenged on the front end on fast ground, she sets a pace entirely on her own terms and delivers exactly what she likes — a steady gallop building to a sprint finish at the death. Luminous Warrior, dropping in trip from a strong recent win, is best placed behind her to pounce, while So Grateful's sharp recent form at this trip suits a race run this way.
Shades Of MayLuminous WarriorSo GratefulIndy's Angel
B
Closer Sweeps Late
20% probability
If the pace is slow enough to compress the field and a hold-up runner picks up best in the final 100 yards.
A modest gallop bunches the entire field, meaning the horse who accelerates latest and most cleanly benefits — Indy's Angel has placed twice at 6f on good ground and could sprint past a tiring leader in this scenario. So Grateful's strong record at 5-6f on good ground and multiple placed efforts give her each-way claims if she can get daylight.
Indy's AngelSo GratefulLuminous WarriorEndowed
C
Pace Collapses Late
11% probability
If Shades Of May sets an honest gallop for once and ties up in the final furlong, leaving the race to those who travel best.
Racing out of her natural hold-up role, Shades Of May may not see out the trip with front-running duties on good-to-firm ground, and a horse who has saved energy tracking will inherit the spoils. Luminous Warrior's recent winning form and Indy's Angel's finishing profile both make them the logical beneficiaries if the leader weakens.
Luminous WarriorIndy's AngelSo GratefulEndowed
D
Chaotic Scramble
7% probability
If the tight amateur-ridden field becomes disorganised, with multiple horses losing their position and interference disrupting the finish.
Amateur jockeys across the field increase the risk of positional errors, mid-race shuffling, and a rough passage for hold-up horses, turning the contest into one of luck and where you happen to land. Endowed's consistent track record at this course and Alafdhal's course experience give both marginal claims if the race dissolves into disorder.
EndowedAlafdhalSo GratefulLuminous Warrior
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch whether Shades Of May — racing out of her natural role as a hold-up horse — can sustain front-running duties for 6f on quick ground, as any sign of stopping could dramatically open the race to the closers.|
WATCH
Monitor the amateur jockey pack in the early stages: with seven riders of varying experience, positional chaos in the first two furlongs could result in interference or blocked passages for hold-up types like Indy's Angel and So Grateful.|
WATCH
Coiled's repeated pattern of fading late (flagged explicitly in the data) and her good-ground strike rate of zero from twelve similar runs make her a significant market-watch horse — any support would be notable and worth noting.|
NOTE
The going report consistently reads Good To Firm across all races at Yarmouth today despite the race card listing Good — confirm official going at the track before the off, as even a half-grade difference may affect the pace at which Shades Of May sets off.|
6:10 — British Stallion Studs Ebf Maiden Fillies' Stakes (gbb Race)
6f · Good · CLS4 · 10 runners
Lady Of Hay likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Speed of Sound and Divine Concerto led; the map had Lady Of Hay in front.
Speed of Sound won at 1.83 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Lady Of Hay
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 6
Pensando A TeLilywhite HartSpeed of SoundDivine ConcertoBabziniAva Louise
Hold Up · 3
Pure MajestyMinkaasFoxsbrush
Lady Of Hay is the sole confirmed front-runner in this 10-runner maiden, trained by Andrew Balding and ridden by David Probert, and with no genuine pace rival to contest the lead she will control tempo from the gates at a measured, sustainable gallop on Good to Firm ground at Yarmouth's flat, undemanding 6f straight. That lone-leader scenario creates a compressed, moderately-run race where the front end is not burned off early, favouring horses who can track in behind and challenge in the final furlong rather than those needing a strong pace to reel in. Speed of Sound has shown genuine placed form over this exact course and distance, and any horse capable of sitting just off the pace and producing a clean, decisive challenge into the final furlong holds the tactical advantage here. The race shape emphatically favours prominent stalkers or aggressive hold-up runners who can close a manageable gap — not true deep closers needing a strong gallop. The field contains more hold-up types than can naturally settle at the rear: Divine Concerto, Babzini, and Ava Louise are genuine hold-up horses redistributed into midfield on the map, as Lady Of Hay alone sets the pace and they are unlikely to find the strong early fractions that allow their style to operate as intended.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Lady Of Hay Controls Cleanly
62% probability
If Lady Of Hay jumps well and establishes a lead unchallenged, dictating a measured pace throughout.
Lady Of Hay, from the Balding yard with Probert aboard, sets a comfortable tempo and maintains rhythm all the way to the line in a race that never accelerates sharply, denying the deep hold-up horses their ideal strong-pace conditions. Horses positioned just behind the leader — particularly Speed of Sound, who has placed twice over this exact trip on this going — are best placed to deliver a direct challenge as the field fans out.
Speed of SoundLady Of HayMinkaasLilywhite Hart
B
Stalker Swamps Leader Late
20% probability
If Lady Of Hay's gallop just edges into unsustainable territory in the final 2f, opening the door for a prominent challenger to sweep past.
A horse tracking in second or third position gets a clean, unimpeded run through the final furlong as Lady Of Hay's momentum fades slightly under pressure, rewarding a horse with a touch more resolution. Speed of Sound and Minkaas, both with placed records over this trip and going, are the profiles most likely to capitalise having travelled comfortably in Lady Of Hay's slipstream.
Speed of SoundMinkaasLady Of HayLilywhite Hart
C
Debutante Disrupts Shape
11% probability
If Pensando A Te (Marco Botti, Marco Ghiani) breaks smartly on debut and forces an unexpected pace injection, scrambling the field order.
A genuine unknown quantity on debut for a yard capable of producing smart first-time-out fillies, Pensando A Te could push Lady Of Hay into a quicker early fractions than intended, stretching the field and introducing uncertainty into the final stages. Should that happen, a horse with natural stamina reserves or an unexposed profile benefits most from the revised, more searching tempo.
Pensando A TeSpeed of SoundMinkaasLilywhite Hart
D
Hold-Up Horse Finishes Through
7% probability
If the pace is genuinely strong enough to leave a gap late and a hold-up runner can close from midfield.
This scenario depends on Babzini, Ava Louise, or Pure Majesty finding more pace than their recent form — or the early tempo — has offered them, and all three carry the note that they are operating out of their natural position in this race shape. Pure Majesty's single run produced a last-place finish and she fades in the closing stages, reducing confidence in this shape materialising at all.
BabziniMinkaasAva LouisePure Majesty
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Lady Of Hay — watch how quickly she clears in the first furlong; if she is allowed a soft lead unchallenged, the race shape locks in immediately and any horse not covering the move within the first 2f may find themselves with too much to do on the flat Yarmouth straight.
WATCH
Speed of Sound — watch her position at the break; if Saffie Osborne secures a tracking berth two or three lengths off the leader, her twice-placed form over this exact trip and going makes her the most likely beneficiary of the dominant pace shape.
WATCH
Pensando A Te — debut runners from Marco Botti can arrive well-prepared and she could break smartly enough to disrupt the settled tempo Lady Of Hay wants to impose; watch her at the gates as any early pace injection changes the complexion of the entire race.
NOTE
Minkaas — trainer T J Kent at a sizzling 3/3 in 14 days is impossible to ignore; watch whether Billy Loughnane positions her prominently early, as if she handles the step up from 5f to 6f she could be dangerous tracking the leader with that in-form handler behind her.
NOTE
Babzini and Divine Concerto — both true hold-up types mapped into midfield; if the pace turns out stronger than expected, watch whether either can close meaningfully in the final furlong, though the "fades in finish" flag on Divine Concerto and the long break for Babzini (75 days) dampen expectations significantly.
Troublesome Guest led; the map had Beauty Box in front.
Beauty Box won at 9.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Beauty Box
Prominent · 2
Dubai CharmDowman
Midfield · 0
None
Hold Up · 2
Wait GeordieTroublesome Guest
Beauty Box is the sole confirmed front-runner in this five-runner nursery and will stride straight to the lead from the gates, setting a measured, uncontested gallop over the straight Yarmouth five furlongs. With no rival likely to challenge her for the early lead, she can dictate her own rhythm and conserve energy through the middle portions of the race, which is a significant tactical advantage on a flat, galloping track that typically rewards horses who travel kindly in front. Dubai Charm and Dowman will press from prominent positions just off the pace, while Wait Geordie and Troublesome Guest are both held-up types who will need the race to develop a strong enough tempo to close ground late. With pace so light and a lone leader able to control fractions, this race shape strongly favours the front-running and prominent-racing profiles — horses that can travel into the race without expending energy in pursuit, rather than those who must generate momentum from the rear on a track where Yarmouth's straight five gives closers limited time to reel in a fresh leader.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Beauty Box Controls Freely
72% probability
If Beauty Box breaks well and settles in front at a tempo entirely of Hector Crouch's choosing, the race becomes a test of her stamina and resolution.
She has form figures of 1-2-2 on good ground and is proven over the course and distance, and a uncontested lead on fast ground at Yarmouth allows her to conserve energy and sprint clear in the final furlong.
Beauty BoxDubai CharmDowmanWait Geordie
B
Prominent Pair Overrun Her
14% probability
If Dubai Charm or Dowman push forward aggressively early and force a quicker-than-ideal tempo, the lead advantage is eroded and the race becomes more even.
Dubai Charm arrives on the back of a Yarmouth win on the same trip and has the class to match Beauty Box stride for stride, while Dowman's trainer George Boughey is in strong form and the hold-up horses get more of a race.
Dubai CharmDowmanBeauty BoxWait Geordie
C
Wait Geordie Closes Late
9% probability
If the pace collapses mid-race and the field strings out, allowing Wait Geordie to pick up momentum with a sustained run from the rear.
Wait Geordie has won over this exact five-furlong Yarmouth trip on good ground and Hugo Palmer's yard is operating at a strong strike rate, making him the most credible closer in the field.
If the pace is strong enough to string the field out and Troublesome Guest, dropping back from six furlongs, finds the shorter trip sharpening his finishing kick.
Troublesome Guest has shown some ability on good ground at six furlongs but his recent form includes a blank and two moderate finishes, making this a long-shot scenario dependent on a significant improvement.
Troublesome GuestWait GeordieDubai CharmDowman
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Beauty Box's ability to break cleanly and control fractions unchallenged is the single biggest determinant of the race shape — watch her early gate reaction closely.
WATCH
Dubai Charm's jockey Neil Callan may elect to push forward and test Beauty Box for the lead early, which would fundamentally alter the tempo and open the race up for closers.
WATCH
Dowman's 65-day absence is significant for a two-year-old; if Billy Loughnane is instructed to be aggressive early and the horse is not fully wound up, he could fade into the back straight and compromise his own chance.
NOTE
Wait Geordie's three consecutive poor efforts (8-7-8) after a promising start require explanation — if David Probert produces him with a confident ride from off the pace, a return to winning form over his best trip cannot be dismissed entirely.
NOTE
The going report confirms Good To Firm for this 5f contest despite the card listing Good — fast conditions will favour a strong-galloping, prominent style and may be less forgiving to horses who need a true end-to-end gallop to get competitive.
7:10 — Origin Amenity Solutions Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race)
1m2f · Good · NOV · 5 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
Urban Warrior led; the map had Cloudy Rose in front.
Urban Warrior won at 3.25 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Cloudy Rose
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 4
Highland HarveyFornidoRegally BlondeSpaceage Love Song
Hold Up · 2
Le Rouge ChinoisUrban Warrior
Cloudy Rose is the sole confirmed front-runner in this seven-runner field over 1m6f on good-to-firm ground at Yarmouth, and with no rival willing or able to challenge for the lead, she will dictate an entirely uncontested, controlled pace from the outset. That scenario creates a truly sustainable gallop — Cloudy Rose can conserve energy through the early and middle stages, potentially stealing a march on the field as they straighten for home. The remainder of the field — Le Rouge Chinois, Urban Warrior, Highland Harvey, Fornido, Regally Blonde and Spaceage Love Song — are all hold-up types by profile, meaning closers must produce sustained late runs from well off the pace without any tactical advantage. The race shape therefore strongly favours the lone front-runner profile and any horse that can race prominently in second or third, as the leaders control tempo and the hold-up horses must work harder to get involved; the field holds considerably more hold-up horses than can realistically deliver a finish from the rear, with Highland Harvey, Fornido, Regally Blonde and Spaceage Love Song all redistributed to midfield because genuine hold-up ground is overcrowded, making the front-end profile of Cloudy Rose the central tactical factor.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Cloudy Rose Dictates Unchallenged
65% probability
If Cloudy Rose sets a measured, uncontested pace and the hold-up pack fails to close the gap in time.
Cloudy Rose slips the field into a rhythm entirely of her own choosing, protecting energy through the long Yarmouth straight before quickening away from those forced to make up ground from far back; with no prominent rival to apply pressure, the tempo never rises early enough to bring the closers into play.
Cloudy RoseUrban WarriorLe Rouge ChinoisSpaceage Love Song
B
Hold-Up Surge Lands Late
17% probability
If Cloudy Rose sets a stronger pace than anticipated and the closers get a true gallop to aim at.
An honest or slightly elevated tempo drains Cloudy Rose's advantage in the final quarter-mile, allowing the best-credentialled hold-up horses to motor through beaten rivals; on good-to-firm ground over 1m6f, those with stamina and fitness count most.
Le Rouge ChinoisSpaceage Love SongUrban WarriorHighland Harvey
C
Prominent Racer Pounces
11% probability
If a hold-up runner tracks Cloudy Rose more aggressively than mapped, securing a position just off the pace and refusing to be trapped deep.
One of the redistributed midfield types — most plausibly Spaceage Love Song or Urban Warrior given recent form — takes a closer order than their natural style suggests and produces a decisive challenge from second or third; the front end is still controlled but this challenger avoids the wide, late run that traps the true backmarkers.
Spaceage Love SongUrban WarriorRegally BlondeHighland Harvey
D
Pace Collapse, All Struggle
7% probability
If Cloudy Rose's tempo is so slow it becomes a sprint finish and the entire field converges in the final furlong.
An extreme crawl brings all seven together rounding the home turn, turning the race into a bunched sprint over the final furlong rather than a true stamina test; in that scenario the horse with the sharpest turn of foot — regardless of typical style — holds the edge, though on this evidence no runner in this field is bred or proven to excel in a sharp sprint finish over 1m6f.
Watch Cloudy Rose in the early stages — if she sets an unusually slow crawl rather than her natural rhythm, the race becomes a false-pace scenario that could benefit any hold-up horse capable of sustaining a sprint finish over 1m6f, turning the shape upside down.
WATCH
Watch Spaceage Love Song's early positioning — if Hector Crouch elects to track Cloudy Rose more aggressively than her redistribution suggests, she could bypass the traffic problems that will trap the true hold-up runners and present a serious challenge from second or third.
WATCH
Highland Harvey's tendency to fade in the finish combined with his shorter recent trip profile (all 12f runs) makes him a significant stamina doubt at 1m6f today — watch whether he can sustain his effort into the final two furlongs or whether his fade flag materialises.
NOTE
Fornido's 131-day absence is the longest in the field and worth monitoring through the early parts of the race — if he is ring-rusty or loses his position early in the rear, his redistribution to midfield becomes academic as he will be last and facing the steepest ground to make up.
8:10 — Bet Central Classified Stakes
5f · Good · DEFAULT · 8 runners
Lead contested: Pure Passion v BananaHISTORIC
How it ran
Banana led, as the map showed.
Pure Passion won at 4.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
Pure PassionBanana
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 4
Cabeza De LlaveShining GuestShe Went WhooshChiedozie
Hold Up · 2
Mayflower RockCharging Bull
Pure Passion and Banana are the two confirmed front-runners in this eight-runner 5f sprint at Yarmouth on Good to Firm ground, and with both needing to lead they will push each other into a genuinely contested early gallop rather than allowing either to dictate cheaply. Pure Passion (Chloe Lyons, 7lb claim) has only three runs to her name but has raced prominently each time, while Banana (Taryn Langley, 5lb claim) has solid recent form at the trip and will not concede the rail without a fight. This contested pace over a flat five furlongs on fast ground creates a shape that most benefits horses who can race just off the speed and pick up the pieces in the final furlong — a prominent stalker who can sit a length or two back and pounce is ideally placed. The field holds more hold-up types than the map can accommodate at the rear: Cabeza De Llave, Shining Guest, She Went Whoosh, and Chiedozie are all true hold-up horses redistributed to midfield, meaning the horses most likely to actually secure prominent tracking positions are Charging Bull and Mayflower Rock, though both are fundamentally hold-up types themselves — the contested pace favours anything that can sit second or third and sustain its effort, rather than those forced wide or deep from a genuine rear draw.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Pace Duel, Stalker Wins
52% probability
If Pure Passion and Banana fight for the lead and both tire inside the final furlong, leaving a close-tracking horse to collar them.
The two front-runners burn each other up through the first three furlongs on fast ground, and the horse sitting a length or two off the pace in third or fourth position has enough fuel to run through the line strongly.
Charging BullMayflower RockCabeza De LlaveBanana
B
Front-Runner Hangs On
22% probability
If one front-runner — most likely Banana — establishes a marginal lead and the other fails to match it, producing an honest but not suicidal gallop.
With the pace honest rather than frenetic, the lead horse conserves just enough to repel challengers, and on Good to Firm ground a horse who has won or placed at the trip and handles the conditions can hold on.
BananaPure PassionCharging BullMayflower Rock
C
Hold-Up Horse Threads Through
16% probability
If the pace genuinely burns out the front two and gaps appear late, allowing a true closer to weave through beaten rivals.
A horse who is a genuine hold-up type and happens to find a clear run in the final furlong could benefit from the carnage up front, though the redistribution of so many closers to midfield makes this harder to execute cleanly.
Cabeza De LlaveShining GuestShe Went WhooshChiedozie
D
Pace Collapses, No Winner
10% probability
If both front-runners set a crawl early — unlikely given their natural inclinations — and the race becomes a sprint finish from a standing start.
A sharp, reactive sprinter able to quicken from a standing position would win, but the structural probability of neither Pure Passion nor Banana wanting to ease off is low given their profiles.
Pure PassionBananaShining GuestMayflower Rock
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Pure Passion and Banana are on a collision course for the lead — watch the opening furlong closely to see which establishes in front, as the loser of that battle may fade sharply by the 2f pole.
WATCH
Cabeza De Llave and Shining Guest both need a clear late run but will be racing in midfield rather than from their natural rear position — if the field fans wide in the straight, one could grab a gap, but a packed finish makes this harder.
WATCH
Charging Bull has headgear (ht) indicating potential for freshness, and at 13 days since last run with a cold trainer could run a race full of early energy that fizzles — watch for it to miss the break or pull hard early.
NOTE
The going report confirms Good to Firm for the 8:10, faster than the stated Good — all horses with a going tag of CONCERN on Firm-style ground should be monitored in the paddock for any signs of reluctance before loading.
NOTE
Three apprentice or claiming jockeys are in this race (Taryn Langley 5lb, Seamus Cronin 5lb, Chloe Lyons 7lb) — in a race where the pace shape is contested from the front, positional decisions in the first two furlongs from inexperienced riders could materially alter the outcome.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.