Archive›York · 14 May 2026

York

14 May 2026 · 7 races

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1:45 — Sky Bet ebfstallions.com Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

6f · Good · NOV · 16 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

2:20 — Lindum York Handicap

5f · Good · HCAP · 22 runners

Hammer The Hammer to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Jakajaro and Copper Knight and Against The Wind led; the map had Hammer The Hammer in front.

Jakajaro won at 15.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

6 of 19 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Hammer The Hammer

Prominent · 9

JakajaroAgainst The WindLuna A Inbhir NisHeavenly HeatherZiggy's TritonSturlassonBergeracEternal SunshineBrazen Bolt

Midfield · 5

Arklow LadI'm NextCopper KnightLethal NymphSports Coach

Hold Up · 7

RedorangeStormy ImpactCorolla PointAir Force OneToca MaderaSquealerBlinky

Hammer The Hammer will lead unchallenged early, setting a sustainable pace over this minimum trip. The real tactical battle develops behind him where 9 horses want prominent positions - Jakajaro, Bergerac, Sturlasson, Luna A Inbhir Nis, Heavenly Heather, Eternal Sunshine, Against The Wind, and the Easterby pair Copper Knight and I'm Next will create severe congestion through the first 2-3 furlongs. This congestion will compromise many prominent runners and create stopping problems 2f out when the real pace injection begins. The race strongly favours hold-up horses who can avoid the early traffic and deliver late runs down the outside.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If the prominent pack gets bunched and hampers each other's acceleration from 2f out

The likes of Redorange, Air Force One, Toca Madera and Corolla Point can sweep past the stalled prominent runners who've been caught in traffic. Ryan Moore on Redorange particularly benefits from this scenario given his ability to find racing room.

RedorangeAir Force OneToca MaderaCorolla Point

Prominent Runner Escapes Traffic

25% probability

If one of the higher-rated prominent horses like Jakajaro or Luna A Inbhir Nis secures an unimpeded passage

They can capitalize on Hammer The Hammer's sustainable early pace and kick clear before the hold-up horses organize their challenges. Jamie Spencer's tactical nous on Jakajaro makes him the most likely to navigate the early congestion.

JakajaroLuna A Inbhir NisSturlassonAgainst The Wind

Hammer The Hammer Wire-To-Wire

12% probability

If the early pace is slower than expected and no serious challenge materializes until too late

His 215-day break becomes irrelevant over 5f and he can dictate terms throughout, with Jack Callan keeping enough in reserve for the final furlong. The Kevin Ryan pair would dominate the finish.

Hammer The HammerBergeracAgainst The WindSturlasson

Pace Collapses Early

8% probability

If the prominent congestion is so severe that the entire field comes back to the leaders inside the final 2f

This creates a blanket finish where any horse can win, favoring those with recent race fitness and strong finishing kicks. The O'Meara pair benefit from recent runs and good current form.

Ziggy's TritonToca MaderaI'm NextSports Coach

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch for severe traffic problems in the first 2-3 furlongs where 9 prominent runners including Jakajaro, Sturlasson, and Against The Wind will be fighting for similar positions

WATCH

Monitor whether Hammer The Hammer can handle the 215-day absence over this minimum trip as the only confirmed pace-setter

WATCH

Keep eye on Ryan Moore's positioning on Redorange given his 235-day break and whether the hold-up tactics can overcome ring-rustiness

NOTE

Look for Air Force One and Toca Madera to be delivered late and wide to avoid the early traffic snarl-ups

NOTE

Watch if any of the prominent runners like Jakajaro or Luna A Inbhir Nis can secure clean early positions to avoid the tactical chaos

2:55 — Oakmere Homes Hambleton Handicap

1m · Good · HCAP · 19 runners

Point Lynas to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Point Lynas led, as the map showed.

Maybe Not won at 19.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 18 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Point Lynas

Prominent · 5

MirskyFirst PrincipleCroupierOld CockPoint Of Contact

Midfield · 7

Sea ForceGaleronTheoryofeverythingDuke's CommandWalsinghamMaybe NotEldrickjones

Hold Up · 6

Diego VenturaVafortinoCerulean BayGodwinsonShoutThunder Roar

Point Lynas will take them along at a sustainable pace from the front, with Mirsky, Point Of Contact, Old Cock, Croupier and First Principle likely to track him in the first half of the field. With only one confirmed front-runner in a large field, Point Lynas won't face early pressure and can dictate terms through steady fractions. The lack of pace pressure will create a tactical affair where positions matter less than finishing kick, setting up perfectly for hold-up horses with proven turn of foot. This race shape strongly favours hold-up performers who can quicken late over the prominent racers and the lone leader.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Heroes Dominate

65% probability

If Point Lynas sets uncontested fractions and the field bunches turning in

The lack of early pace allows closers to get into perfect striking positions, with class telling in the final furlong as the best finishers sweep past a tiring leader

Sea ForceVafortinoDiego VenturaShout

Prominent Trackers Strike

20% probability

If the prominent horses get ideal pitches just behind Point Lynas without using energy

Mirsky or First Principle can time their runs perfectly from close-up positions, having saved ground while staying in touch with modest fractions

MirskyFirst PrincipleCerulean BayPoint Of Contact

Point Lynas Wire Job

10% probability

If Point Lynas gets very soft fractions and the field comes too late

The leader builds enough advantage through gentle sectionals that his stamina holds off all challengers, particularly if the closers get crowded or come too wide

Point LynasThunder RoarMirskyEldrickjones

Pace Collapse Surprise

5% probability

If Point Lynas goes too slowly and creates a messy sprint finish

The race becomes a lottery where any horse getting a clear run can win, potentially suiting an outsider who finds daylight at the right moment

Maybe NotWalsinghamGaleronOld Cock

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Point Lynas must be watched for early fractions as uncontested lead could create perfect or problematic tempo

WATCH

Sea Force and Vafortino merit close attention as quality hold-up horses with strong recent form

NOTE

Mirsky bears watching if getting prominent early position as best-suited to this tactical scenario

WATCH

Multiple O'Meara runners (Mirsky, Cerulean Bay, Duke's Command, Walsingham) could impact pace dynamics

NOTE

Late market moves on any long-absent horses like Point Of Contact or Maybe Not would signal stable confidence

3:30 — Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Middleton Fillies' Stakes (Group 2)

1m2½f · Good · G2 · 5 runners

Fallen Angel likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Fallen Angel led, as the map showed.

See The Fire won at 1.83 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Fallen Angel

Prominent · 1

Diamond Rain

Midfield · 1

Red Letter

Hold Up · 2

See The FireFairy Glen

Fallen Angel is the only confirmed front runner and will set a comfortable, sustainable pace without pressure through the early stages. Red Letter and Diamond Rain will likely track in second and third, with See The Fire and the hold-up types settling further back. This race will develop into a sprint finish from the 2f pole as the pace quickens significantly. The lack of pace pressure early followed by a strong gallop home clearly favours hold-up horses who can unleash late runs, particularly See The Fire who thrives when able to come from off the pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Heroes Dominate

55% probability

If the early pace remains steady allowing closers to build momentum

The lack of early pace pressure allows See The Fire to settle perfectly and unleash her devastating finishing kick. Hold-up horses get ideal positioning as the race becomes a sprint finish from 2f out.

See The FireDiamond RainRed LetterFallen Angel

Prominent Runners Strike

25% probability

If Red Letter or Diamond Rain can secure ideal tracking positions behind Fallen Angel

The prominent runners get first run on the leaders and have enough tactical speed to hold off late challengers. Red Letter's recent form suggests she can capitalize on this tactical advantage.

Red LetterDiamond RainSee The FireFallen Angel

Front Runner Steals It

12% probability

If Fallen Angel maintains her rhythm and quickens at the right moment

Her class and tactical advantage of dictating terms allows her to repel all challengers despite the long absence. The reduced field size makes it harder for closers to get clear runs.

Fallen AngelRed LetterSee The FireDiamond Rain

Pace Collapse Chaos

8% probability

If the early pace becomes extremely slow creating a sprint from 3f out

The race becomes a pure speed test where tactical position matters most and form lines become unreliable. Any horse getting a clear run could capitalize on the scramble.

Diamond RainRed LetterSee The FireFallen Angel

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Fallen Angel's fitness after 208 days off - any signs of blowing up in the final furlong would open the race wide

WATCH

See The Fire getting trapped behind the small field - needs clear room to unleash her finishing kick from 2f out

NOTE

Red Letter's early positioning - must avoid getting caught wide tracking the leader around York's sweeping bends

WATCH

Diamond Rain's jumping from the gates after the long break - slow start would compromise her prominent running style

NOTE

The pace through the first half-mile - if too slow it negates the hold-up horses' main tactical advantage

4:05 — Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes (Group 2)

1m2½f · Good · G2 · 8 runners

Lead contested: Item v GuildmasterHISTORIC

How it ran

Action led; the map had Item and Guildmaster in front.

Item won at 6.50 — was held up, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

ItemGuildmaster

Prominent · 3

ActionMorshdiChristmas Day

Midfield · 1

Al Zanati

Hold Up · 2

Wise PrinceKing's Trail

Item and Guildmaster will contest the early lead, with Item returning from a 226-day break potentially keen to use his natural pace. This dual pressure creates an honest gallop through the first mile, with prominent runners Action, Al Zanati, Christmas Day and Morshdi tracking in the second rank. The sustained pace will stretch the field entering the home straight, leaving the hold-up pair Wise Prince and King's Trail needing significant acceleration from off the pace. This race shape strongly favours the prominent runners who can sit close enough to strike but avoid the early pace battle.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Dominate

45% probability

If Item and Guildmaster engage early and set honest fractions without collapsing

The sustained pace stretches the field and allows the prominent trio of Action, Al Zanati and Christmas Day to strike from ideal positions. Their superior class ratings and tactical positioning prove decisive over the tiring leaders and struggling hold-up horses.

ActionChristmas DayAl ZanatiMorshdi

Hold-Up Horses Excel

25% probability

If the early pace between Item and Guildmaster becomes overly strong and compromises the prominent pack

The hot gallop sets up perfectly for Wise Prince and King's Trail to unleash finishing kicks from the rear. Both possess the class and acceleration to sweep past tiring rivals in the final two furlongs.

Wise PrinceKing's TrailActionChristmas Day

Leaders Steal Home

20% probability

If Item settles better than expected from his long break and Guildmaster travels smoothly

The early pace proves sustainable rather than suicidal, allowing one of the front two to kick clear in the straight. Item's previous class or Guildmaster's recent Newmarket third gives them enough left to hold off late challenges.

ItemGuildmasterChristmas DayMorshdi

Morshdi Times Perfect

10% probability

If the Haggas runner can secure the ideal trip tracking the pace without getting involved early

His recent winning form and tactical speed allow him to emerge from the pack at the crucial moment. The son of Kingman has shown he can quicken off any pace and his 111 rating puts him right in the mix.

MorshdiAl ZanatiChristmas DayAction

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Item's keenness returning from 226-day break could see him set unsustainable fractions and compromise his chance

WATCH

Action's significant form decline at Leopardstown needs monitoring for any visible distress or reluctance to race

NOTE

Christmas Day and Morshdi both arrive in winning form and their early positioning battle could determine the winner

WATCH

King's Trail showed poor form last time and needs to prove the hold-up style can overcome this pace scenario

NOTE

The gap between leaders Item/Guildmaster and the prominent pack after two furlongs will reveal the likely winning zone

4:40 — British Stallion Studs EBF Westow Stakes (Listed Race)

5f · Good · LST · 11 runners

Lead contested: Revival Power v SimplifyHISTORIC

How it ran

Revival Power led, as the map showed.

Dickensian won at 13.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

6 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Revival PowerSimplify

Prominent · 4

Aspect IslandBoston DanWor FaaythExclamation

Midfield · 2

Temple Of AthenaPalmeira

Hold Up · 3

DickensianManatee MehmasBlack Star Boy

Revival Power and Simplify will contest the early lead, both confirmed front runners with strong records when getting on the pace. Revival Power has three wins from the front while Simplify has two recent victories including last time out. Their clash should create a solid gallop over this minimum trip, though not suicidal given both horses' tactical awareness. The honest tempo will stretch the field and expose those needing cover, particularly with 11 runners creating traffic issues. This pace scenario clearly favours prominent racers who can sit just off the leaders and hold-up horses with proven finishing kicks.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Dual Pace Collapse

45% probability

If Revival Power and Simplify go too hard in their early battle

The sustained duel weakens both leaders in the final furlong, opening the door for horses tracking in behind. Hold-up horses like Manatee Mehmas and Dickensian benefit most from the strong pace and can unleash late finishing kicks.

Manatee MehmasDickensianAspect IslandBlack Star Boy

Front Runner Dominates

30% probability

If Revival Power or Simplify settles into an uncontested lead after early skirmishing

The winner gets first run and holds off challengers, with their rival fading after the early efforts. Prominent racers who track the pace without getting involved early provide the main dangers.

Revival PowerSimplifyAspect IslandBoston Dan

Prominent Tracker Strikes

20% probability

If the pace is strong but both leaders show resilience in the final furlong

Horses positioned prominently but not committed to the early pace can strike with perfectly timed runs. The solid gallop suits their tactical positioning while exposing those held up too far back.

Aspect IslandBoston DanWor FaaythTemple Of Athena

Tactical Mess Benefits Outsider

5% probability

If traffic problems develop in the closing stages with the large field bunching up

A horse with clear sailing room or getting a perfect split can capitalize while better fancied rivals get stopped in their runs. The 5f straight becomes crucial for positioning.

ExclamationTemple Of AthenaPalmeiraWor Faayth

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Revival Power and Simplify could go too fast early if neither concedes the lead, weakening both for the finish

WATCH

Dickensian faces a fitness test after 244 days off despite his class advantage over most rivals

NOTE

Manatee Mehmas produced a career-best last time here and looks the main beneficiary of a strong pace

WATCH

Exclamation running again after just six days could find the quick turnaround taking its toll late on

NOTE

The large 11-runner field increases the chances of traffic problems developing in the home straight

5:15 — Frank Whittle Partnership Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

1m4f · Good · HCAP · 16 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Parisian Scholar led, as the map showed.

Arc Ole Ole won at 4.33 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

Northern BraveHard To BelieveParisian Scholar

Prominent · 3

Sudbury HillPendellaTommo's Ginjaninja

Midfield · 5

Cotton BudHeroicsDryburghWickseyHowsham

Hold Up · 5

Baltic FleetStoneacre DonnyKnightsailCharles DarnayArc Ole Ole

Northern Brave, Hard To Believe, and Parisian Scholar will ensure a strong early gallop over this stamina-testing 1m4f trip. All three are confirmed front-runners who rarely settle, creating a genuine pace battle from the start. The sustained gallop will stretch the field and test stamina reserves in the final three furlongs. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can finish powerfully, as the early pace will compromise the leaders and set up a tactical advantage for those tracking from behind.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Gallop Collapse

55% probability

If the three leaders go too fast early and weaken markedly in the final furlong

The sustained pace will find out the front-runners' stamina limitations, allowing hold-up horses with proven finishing kicks to sweep past tired leaders. Cotton Bud and Stoneacre Donny both have winning form at this distance and can capitalize on the expected pace collapse.

Cotton BudStoneacre DonnyBaltic FleetWicksey

Front-Runner Survives

25% probability

If one of the pace-setters can dictate more sensible fractions despite the competition

Hard To Believe or Northern Brave could find the tactical speed to control the tempo better than expected, holding enough in reserve to resist late challengers. Their class edge may prove decisive if they can avoid a pace war.

Hard To BelieveNorthern BraveParisian ScholarSudbury Hill

Prominent Tracker Triumph

15% probability

If the prominent runners can sit just off the pace and avoid the early speed duel

Horses like Pendella and Sudbury Hill can benefit from tracking the leaders closely without engaging in the early battle. They would have the perfect position to strike when the leaders begin to tire in the straight.

PendellaSudbury HillTommo's GinjaninjaDryburgh

Complete Pace Meltdown

5% probability

If all three leaders go suicidally fast and completely collapse in unison

The entire front group could tie up dramatically, allowing a deep closer like Heroics or Arc Ole Ole to come from last to first. This would require an extreme pace scenario but is possible given the aggressive front-running styles involved.

HeroicsArc Ole OleKnightsailCharles Darnay

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Northern Brave faces serious fitness test after 217 days off while trying to lead throughout

WATCH

Parisian Scholar returns quickly after just 7 days and wears cheekpieces for the first time

NOTE

Cotton Bud drops significantly in class from Group company to handicaps and holds winning form

WATCH

Hard To Believe needs to avoid engaging in early pace battle with the other two leaders

NOTE

Tommo's Ginjaninja carries just 121lbs, giving her a significant weight advantage in a competitive field

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 14 May 2026.

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